Macy's Inc. (M) is gearing up to report third-quarter earnings before the bell on Wednesday, December 3, and at least one analyst is feeling more optimistic about what those numbers might look like.

Telsey Advisory Group analyst Dana Telsey has bumped up her expectations for the quarter, pointing to two key factors: colder weather finally showing up and Bloomingdale's continuing to gain traction thanks to what she calls "brand newness." Sometimes it really does help when people actually need winter coats.

Telsey maintained her Market Perform rating on Macy's but raised the price target from $17 to $22, reflecting the improved outlook.

The Numbers Look a Bit Better

Here's where things get interesting. Telsey now expects net sales to drop 3% year-over-year to $4.6 billion for the third quarter. That might sound rough, but it's actually better than the consensus estimate calling for a 4.6% decline to $4.52 billion.

On the comparable sales front, Telsey's estimate sits at -1.0%, up from her previous forecast of -1.5%. That's slightly below the consensus of -0.7%, but it's a notable improvement from the -2.4% comp decline recorded in the same quarter last year.

The earnings estimate has also gotten a lift. Telsey now expects a loss of 12 cents per share, improved from her previous forecast of a 15-cent loss. That aligns with the consensus estimate.

Holiday Season in Focus

When Macy's management takes questions on the earnings call, expect plenty of attention on holiday season commentary. The retailer has been running multiple promotional events throughout November, and investors will want to know how those efforts are paying off heading into the critical December shopping period.

Shares of Macy's were up 0.09% to $22.45 at the time of publication on Friday.