When Tim Cook tells you something is going to be big, it's usually worth paying attention. And right now, the Apple Inc. (AAPL) CEO is practically shouting about how strong the company's first quarter is going to be. New data from China's massive Singles' Day shopping event suggests he might actually be underselling it.

China Goes Big on iPhone 17

Here's the headline number: Apple grabbed 26% of all smartphone sales in China during the Singles' Day shopping season, according to fresh data from Counterpoint Research. That's not just impressive—it's market-dominating performance in one of the world's most competitive smartphone battlegrounds.

For context, Singles' Day happens on November 11 in China, but the shopping frenzy stretches across an entire month as retailers run promotions leading up to the main event. It's essentially Black Friday on steroids, and it's become a crucial indicator of consumer demand in the world's largest smartphone market.

The broader picture makes Apple's performance even more striking. Overall smartphone sales in China climbed 3% during this year's Singles' Day celebration. But strip out Apple's numbers, and the market would have actually contracted by 5% year-over-year, according to Counterpoint's report on what they called a "cautious consumer environment."

Translation: Apple isn't just winning—it's propping up the entire Chinese smartphone market right now. The iPhone 17, which launched in September, appears to be the main driver of this momentum, with Counterpoint specifically calling out its strong performance.

Making things even better for Apple, its main competitors in the region are stumbling. Both Huawei and Xiaomi saw their Singles' Day sales decline year-over-year, losing market share to Apple in the process.

This China strength fits into a bigger narrative. Counterpoint recently predicted that Apple will overtake Samsung as the global smartphone leader by the end of 2025, capturing 19.4% of worldwide market share. That would mark Apple's first time at the top since 2011.

Record-Breaking Quarter on the Horizon

During Apple's fourth-quarter earnings call, Cook didn't hold back his enthusiasm about what's coming next.

"We are incredibly excited about the strength we're seeing across our products and services, and we expect the December quarter's revenue to be the best ever for the company and the best ever for iPhone," Cook told investors.

Apple CFO Kevin Parekh put some numbers behind that optimism, guiding for December quarter revenue growth of 10% to 12% year-over-year, "which would be our best quarter ever."

Let's do the math. Apple reported revenue of $124.30 billion in last year's first quarter, which was a company record at the time. Growing that by 10% to 12% means we're looking at first quarter revenue somewhere between $136.73 billion and $139.22 billion this year.

Parekh also specifically called out iPhone performance, saying it would be "our best iPhone quarter ever" with revenue growing by double digits year-over-year. Last year's first quarter saw iPhone revenue of $69.14 billion. Even at a conservative 10% growth rate, that pushes the total above $76.06 billion—a significant jump from the $49.02 billion in iPhone revenue Apple just reported for the fourth quarter.

Wall Street analysts are currently modeling first quarter revenue of $132.31 billion, which sits below Apple's own guidance range. That's interesting because Apple has beaten analyst revenue estimates for more than 10 consecutive quarters, so the company has earned some credibility with its projections.

On the earnings front, analysts expect $2.52 per share for the first quarter, up from $2.40 in the year-ago period. Apple has also beaten earnings-per-share estimates for more than 10 straight quarters.

Stock Performance Reflects Optimism

Apple stock traded down 0.5% to $276.22 on Friday, still hovering near the all-time highs it set earlier in the week. The stock hit $280.38 on Tuesday, the top of its 52-week range that bottoms out at $169.21.

Shares are up 13.3% year-to-date in 2025, reflecting investor confidence in the iPhone 17 cycle and the company's ability to maintain momentum in key markets like China despite broader economic headwinds.