Jumia Technologies AG (JMIA) shares popped more than 7% Friday after Hunterbrook Media released a report arguing that the long-struggling "Amazon (AMZN) of Africa" might actually be figuring things out. The outlet's affiliated investment fund disclosed it has taken a long position in the stock, which probably tells you something about their conviction level.

The Local Advantage

Here's the pitch: Jumia isn't trying to be a pure online retailer anymore. Instead, it's built a pan-African e-commerce and logistics platform that blends online ordering with physical infrastructure. The company operates a marketplace alongside warehouses and 1,500 pickup stations scattered across the continent. These stations do double duty as vendor drop-off points and let customers pay cash or use mobile money when they collect their orders.

This hybrid online-offline approach addresses two massive problems in African e-commerce: spotty last-mile delivery infrastructure and widespread skepticism about online payments. And apparently, it's working to slash delivery and marketing costs per order.

Hunterbrook's argument is that this local playbook gives Jumia a fighting chance against Chinese giants Temu and Shein. Those companies rely on cross-border shipping, require upfront payment, and make returns a nightmare. Meanwhile, Jumia's management team has relocated to Africa and shifted focus toward low-priced essentials rather than chasing global brand partnerships. The goal? Transform Jumia into something like a smaller African version of MercadoLibre Inc (MCLO), with a realistic path to profitability by 2027.

The Numbers Behind the Story

Earlier this month, Jumia reported third-quarter results that support the turnaround narrative. Revenue hit $45.6 million, up 25% year over year, while gross merchandise value climbed 21% to $197.2 million. More importantly for a company that's been burning cash for years, the operating loss narrowed to $17.4 million and adjusted EBITDA loss improved to $14.0 million.

The less cheerful news: cash on hand declined to $82.5 million. Management is projecting 2025 GMV growth of 15–17% and maintains they'll reach pre-tax breakeven in the fourth quarter of 2026. That's not exactly around the corner, but it's a concrete target.

Market data shows Jumia with exceptional momentum at 98.26, one of the strongest scores available, though its growth rating sits at a more modest 30.35. The stock was trading at $12.79 Friday, hovering near its 52-week high of $13.14.

What It Means

If Friday's rally holds, it suggests investors are starting to believe that Jumia's physical footprint and what Hunterbrook calls its "trust moat" can capture the tailwinds of rising smartphone adoption, expanding digital payment infrastructure, and ongoing urbanization across Africa.

The big question is execution at scale. Jumia went public as a high-profile story that subsequently disappointed. Now the company is trying to prove it can transform from a cautionary tale about overhyped emerging market plays into actual infrastructure that matters for African retail. That's a long road, but at least there's a map now.