When Prices Go Up and Fear Goes Up, Something Interesting Happens

Here's a fun contradiction to start your December: the market is sitting 0.6% from all-time highs while the Blossom Fear and Greed Index is screaming Extreme Fear. That's the kind of disconnect that makes you wonder if the market and investors are even looking at the same thing.

They're not, really. Price action tells you what's happening. Sentiment tells you how people feel about what's happening. And when those two things completely diverge, you tend to get interesting setups. History suggests that when stocks climb walls of worry like this, the year-end rallies can be explosive. If seasonality cooperates and the macro backdrop doesn't implode, we might be looking at the cleanest end-of-year run since 2021.

The first full week of December is here, Thanksgiving leftovers are finally gone, and we're entering the final stretch of the year with both momentum and anxiety in equal measure.

Software Companies Get Their Turn in the Earnings Spotlight

The megacap tech giants already reported their numbers, so now it's time for the software companies to show what they've got. This week brings earnings from CrowdStrike (CRWD), SentinelOne (S), MongoDB (MDB), Snowflake (SNOW), UiPath (PATH), and others.

Analysts expect mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth from CRWD and S, continued but decelerating cloud data growth from SNOW, and steady Atlas-driven momentum from MDB. These reports matter because they'll give investors a clear picture of enterprise spending patterns heading into 2025. More importantly, they'll show whether AI workloads are actually moving from the hardware buildup phase into real-world deployment.

The software cohort doesn't get the same fanfare as the Magnificent Seven, but they're often better indicators of where corporate budgets are actually flowing. Pay attention.

Crypto's Attempted Comeback Needs More Proof

Crypto is showing some signs of life after Bitcoin (BTC) bounced from the 80k lows and Ethereum (ETH) managed to hold near 2600. That's encouraging if you're a believer, but the trend remains fragile. A proper Santa Claus rally in risk assets would feel incomplete without crypto making a run at new all-time highs.

Here's the thing though: if you loved BTC at 126k, you should theoretically love it at 90k. But markets don't run on theory. They run on confirmation. Traders need to see Bitcoin reclaim its major moving averages and Ethereum break out of its downtrend before this becomes a real rally instead of a hopeful bounce.

Until those technical levels get taken out, crypto remains in "prove it" territory. The setup is there. The follow-through isn't. Yet.