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Will Warren Buffett's Final Year as Berkshire CEO End in Rare Underperformance?

MarketDash Editorial Team
6 days ago
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has beaten the S&P 500 in three of the last four years, but as the legendary investor prepares to step down from the CEO role he's held since 1970, the conglomerate is trailing the market benchmark in 2025.

So here's an interesting way to end a legendary career: Warren Buffett is stepping down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B) at the close of 2025, wrapping up a run that started in 1970. And as we head into the final month of his tenure, Berkshire is actually trailing the market.

Not by much, mind you. But for an investor whose track record has become the stuff of financial legend, it's a noteworthy footnote to what will otherwise go down as one of the most successful CEO runs in corporate history.

The Recent Scoreboard

Let's look at how Buffett and Berkshire have stacked up against the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which tracks the broader market index. Over the past four years, Berkshire has won three out of four matchups:

  • 2024: BRKB +27.1%, SPY +24.1%
  • 2023: BRKB +15.5%, SPY +26.7%
  • 2022: BRKB +3.3%, SPY -17.5%
  • 2021: BRKB +29.0%, SPY +28.7%

That 2023 underperformance aside, Berkshire has delivered exactly what you'd expect from the Oracle of Omaha. Looking at the longer view, Berkshire has outperformed the SPY in 11 of the last 20 years. Buffett has been involved with Berkshire since 1965, and CEO since 1970, so we're talking about decades of market-beating returns.

But here's what really stands out: look at 2022. When the market was getting hammered and the SPY dropped 17.5%, Berkshire was actually up 3.3%. That's the Berkshire magic in action. It's not just about crushing it in bull markets; it's about protecting capital when things get ugly.

The pattern holds across other rough years too. In 2018, Berkshire gained 3.0% while the SPY fell 4.6%. Even during the 2008 financial crisis, when everything was melting down, Berkshire lost 32.1% compared to the SPY's 36.8% decline. Still painful, but meaningfully less painful.

The 2025 Gap

Fast forward to today, and Berkshire is currently up 13.5% year-to-date, versus a 16.7% gain for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. That 3.2 percentage point gap isn't massive, but with just one month left in Buffett's final year as CEO, time is running short to close it.

The good news? Berkshire has been making up ground lately. Over the past month, the conglomerate's shares have surged 7.4% while the SPY has actually dipped 0.4%. So the momentum is definitely moving in the right direction.

What's driving that recent strength? Probably a combination of factors, including some notable moves in Berkshire's investment portfolio and growing investor recognition of the value building up in the company's holdings.

A Big New Bet

One major development: Berkshire's third quarter 13F filing revealed a substantial new position in Alphabet Class A (GOOGL). We're talking about 17,846,142 shares, enough to make the tech giant one of Berkshire's top 10 holdings.

This is particularly interesting given that Berkshire has been trimming its massive stake in Apple Inc. (AAPL) over recent quarters. The Alphabet purchase could signal a renewed bet on AI growth and future technology, even as Buffett steps back from day-to-day leadership. With this addition, Berkshire now owns stock in three of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, with Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) being the third.

Meanwhile, several other major Berkshire holdings have been doing their part. American Express (AXP), Bank of America (BAC), and Coca-Cola Company (KO) have all outperformed the S&P 500 so far in 2025. These core positions performing well should theoretically help Berkshire's overall returns.

The Buffett Premium Question

Here's an interesting theory about why Berkshire might be underperforming this year: maybe it's because everyone knows Buffett is leaving. For decades, Berkshire shares have likely carried what you might call a "Buffett premium." Investors have been willing to pay up for the privilege of having their money managed according to the principles and instincts of one of history's greatest investors.

As that era comes to an end, some of that premium might be evaporating. Sure, Buffett has a talented investment team in place, but will investors have the same patience and faith in their stock picks without the Oracle himself at the helm? It's a legitimate question, and the market might already be pricing in some skepticism.

Of course, we still have December ahead of us. A strong finish to the year could flip the script entirely, turning what looks like underperformance into another win for Buffett's final act. Either way, one down year after 55 years of extraordinary leadership isn't exactly going to tarnish his legacy. But it would be quite the ironic ending to let the S&P 500 have the last word.

Back to News

Will Warren Buffett's Final Year as Berkshire CEO End in Rare Underperformance?

MarketDash Editorial Team
6 days ago
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has beaten the S&P 500 in three of the last four years, but as the legendary investor prepares to step down from the CEO role he's held since 1970, the conglomerate is trailing the market benchmark in 2025.

So here's an interesting way to end a legendary career: Warren Buffett is stepping down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B) at the close of 2025, wrapping up a run that started in 1970. And as we head into the final month of his tenure, Berkshire is actually trailing the market.

Not by much, mind you. But for an investor whose track record has become the stuff of financial legend, it's a noteworthy footnote to what will otherwise go down as one of the most successful CEO runs in corporate history.

The Recent Scoreboard

Let's look at how Buffett and Berkshire have stacked up against the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which tracks the broader market index. Over the past four years, Berkshire has won three out of four matchups:

  • 2024: BRKB +27.1%, SPY +24.1%
  • 2023: BRKB +15.5%, SPY +26.7%
  • 2022: BRKB +3.3%, SPY -17.5%
  • 2021: BRKB +29.0%, SPY +28.7%

That 2023 underperformance aside, Berkshire has delivered exactly what you'd expect from the Oracle of Omaha. Looking at the longer view, Berkshire has outperformed the SPY in 11 of the last 20 years. Buffett has been involved with Berkshire since 1965, and CEO since 1970, so we're talking about decades of market-beating returns.

But here's what really stands out: look at 2022. When the market was getting hammered and the SPY dropped 17.5%, Berkshire was actually up 3.3%. That's the Berkshire magic in action. It's not just about crushing it in bull markets; it's about protecting capital when things get ugly.

The pattern holds across other rough years too. In 2018, Berkshire gained 3.0% while the SPY fell 4.6%. Even during the 2008 financial crisis, when everything was melting down, Berkshire lost 32.1% compared to the SPY's 36.8% decline. Still painful, but meaningfully less painful.

The 2025 Gap

Fast forward to today, and Berkshire is currently up 13.5% year-to-date, versus a 16.7% gain for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. That 3.2 percentage point gap isn't massive, but with just one month left in Buffett's final year as CEO, time is running short to close it.

The good news? Berkshire has been making up ground lately. Over the past month, the conglomerate's shares have surged 7.4% while the SPY has actually dipped 0.4%. So the momentum is definitely moving in the right direction.

What's driving that recent strength? Probably a combination of factors, including some notable moves in Berkshire's investment portfolio and growing investor recognition of the value building up in the company's holdings.

A Big New Bet

One major development: Berkshire's third quarter 13F filing revealed a substantial new position in Alphabet Class A (GOOGL). We're talking about 17,846,142 shares, enough to make the tech giant one of Berkshire's top 10 holdings.

This is particularly interesting given that Berkshire has been trimming its massive stake in Apple Inc. (AAPL) over recent quarters. The Alphabet purchase could signal a renewed bet on AI growth and future technology, even as Buffett steps back from day-to-day leadership. With this addition, Berkshire now owns stock in three of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, with Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) being the third.

Meanwhile, several other major Berkshire holdings have been doing their part. American Express (AXP), Bank of America (BAC), and Coca-Cola Company (KO) have all outperformed the S&P 500 so far in 2025. These core positions performing well should theoretically help Berkshire's overall returns.

The Buffett Premium Question

Here's an interesting theory about why Berkshire might be underperforming this year: maybe it's because everyone knows Buffett is leaving. For decades, Berkshire shares have likely carried what you might call a "Buffett premium." Investors have been willing to pay up for the privilege of having their money managed according to the principles and instincts of one of history's greatest investors.

As that era comes to an end, some of that premium might be evaporating. Sure, Buffett has a talented investment team in place, but will investors have the same patience and faith in their stock picks without the Oracle himself at the helm? It's a legitimate question, and the market might already be pricing in some skepticism.

Of course, we still have December ahead of us. A strong finish to the year could flip the script entirely, turning what looks like underperformance into another win for Buffett's final act. Either way, one down year after 55 years of extraordinary leadership isn't exactly going to tarnish his legacy. But it would be quite the ironic ending to let the S&P 500 have the last word.