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Jim Cramer Warns Oracle Faces OpenAI Risk, But Says Data Center Giant Has Options

MarketDash Editorial Team
6 days ago
As Alphabet's Gemini gains ground against OpenAI, CNBC's Jim Cramer is raising questions about Oracle's heavy reliance on its biggest AI partner - though he thinks the cloud infrastructure giant has enough going for it to weather the storm.

Here's a fun question for investors: What happens when your biggest customer might be losing a critical fight? That's the scenario Oracle Corp (ORCL) could be facing as Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) flexes its AI muscles against OpenAI, and CNBC's Jim Cramer is paying attention.

The Gemini Problem

On his Nov. 24 "Mad Money" episode, Cramer didn't mince words about the shifting AI landscape. "We have to recognize that Gemini's the biggest threat to ChatGPT we've seen so far. There's simply no two ways about it — Gemini's existential for OpenAI," he said.

The concern for Oracle? OpenAI has committed enormous sums to building out data centers in coming years, and Oracle has been a major beneficiary of that spending spree. If Alphabet's Gemini starts eating OpenAI's lunch, particularly with its integration into Google Search, that could throw a wrench into Oracle's ambitious growth plans.

But Cramer isn't writing off either company just yet. "Maybe OpenAI has a revolutionary version of its own product in the works. I, for one, would never write them off. Nor would I say that this news is definitely bad for Oracle, their biggest business partner."

Oracle's Bigger Picture

The real question is whether Oracle is overly dependent on OpenAI's fortunes. Cramer thinks the answer is no, with an asterisk.

"I think that Oracle, which builds data centers better than anyone, can get lots of takers for its product. It doesn't just live or die depending on OpenAI, but it has taken on a lot of debt," Cramer explained.

That debt comment matters. Oracle has been borrowing heavily to fund its cloud infrastructure buildout, betting big on sustained AI demand. If that demand softens or shifts away from key partners, the leverage becomes more concerning.

Oracle reported first-quarter financial results in September with revenue and earnings per share missing analyst estimates. Guidance from the company sent shares higher initially, making it one of the most-watched large cap tech stocks in 2025. Over the last month, however, Oracle stock has fallen 22%.

The Backlog Question

During his Nov. 18 show, Cramer flagged Oracle's September earnings as potentially planting "the seeds of the AI trade turning cold." The stock initially soared on strong future backlog numbers, but then reports emerged suggesting the majority of that backlog belonged to OpenAI. Suddenly, Oracle's diversification story looked shakier.

The numbers Oracle is projecting are staggering. The company guided for Cloud Infrastructure revenue to grow 77% to $18 billion in the current fiscal year. Looking further out, Oracle expects the segment to reach $32 billion, $73 billion, $114 billion and $144 billion over the next four fiscal years, respectively.

Those projections depend heavily on the AI infrastructure boom continuing at breakneck pace. Cramer warned that slower growth for companies like OpenAI could become a problem for "the nearly $1 trillion in spending by OpenAI and for its partners set to capitalize on the increased spending."

Additional Warning Signs

Beyond the OpenAI concentration risk, Cramer pointed to other concerns. Credit default swaps on Oracle debt have shown some stress, and former CEO Safra Catz has recently been selling stock options, both potential red flags for investors watching the company closely.

Cramer's bottom line: companies with business "hanging on OpenAI and ChatGPT just became more precarious."

What It Means for Investors

The situation highlights a classic risk in the infrastructure buildout game. Oracle positioned itself as the picks-and-shovels play for the AI gold rush, but if too much of your backlog comes from miners betting on one particular claim, you're more exposed than you might appear.

That said, the battle between Alphabet and OpenAI could see both companies emerge as winners in the AI race, helping Oracle along the way. The question is whether the market has priced in enough risk around customer concentration and the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending.

With concerns of an "AI bubble" growing louder, Cramer's comments might make investors more cautious about companies with concentrated exposure to AI's biggest spenders.

The Numbers

Oracle stock closed down Monday 0.50% to $200.94 versus a 52-week trading range of $118.86 to $345.72. Oracle shares are up 21% year-to-date in 2025.

Back to News

Jim Cramer Warns Oracle Faces OpenAI Risk, But Says Data Center Giant Has Options

MarketDash Editorial Team
6 days ago
As Alphabet's Gemini gains ground against OpenAI, CNBC's Jim Cramer is raising questions about Oracle's heavy reliance on its biggest AI partner - though he thinks the cloud infrastructure giant has enough going for it to weather the storm.

Here's a fun question for investors: What happens when your biggest customer might be losing a critical fight? That's the scenario Oracle Corp (ORCL) could be facing as Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) flexes its AI muscles against OpenAI, and CNBC's Jim Cramer is paying attention.

The Gemini Problem

On his Nov. 24 "Mad Money" episode, Cramer didn't mince words about the shifting AI landscape. "We have to recognize that Gemini's the biggest threat to ChatGPT we've seen so far. There's simply no two ways about it — Gemini's existential for OpenAI," he said.

The concern for Oracle? OpenAI has committed enormous sums to building out data centers in coming years, and Oracle has been a major beneficiary of that spending spree. If Alphabet's Gemini starts eating OpenAI's lunch, particularly with its integration into Google Search, that could throw a wrench into Oracle's ambitious growth plans.

But Cramer isn't writing off either company just yet. "Maybe OpenAI has a revolutionary version of its own product in the works. I, for one, would never write them off. Nor would I say that this news is definitely bad for Oracle, their biggest business partner."

Oracle's Bigger Picture

The real question is whether Oracle is overly dependent on OpenAI's fortunes. Cramer thinks the answer is no, with an asterisk.

"I think that Oracle, which builds data centers better than anyone, can get lots of takers for its product. It doesn't just live or die depending on OpenAI, but it has taken on a lot of debt," Cramer explained.

That debt comment matters. Oracle has been borrowing heavily to fund its cloud infrastructure buildout, betting big on sustained AI demand. If that demand softens or shifts away from key partners, the leverage becomes more concerning.

Oracle reported first-quarter financial results in September with revenue and earnings per share missing analyst estimates. Guidance from the company sent shares higher initially, making it one of the most-watched large cap tech stocks in 2025. Over the last month, however, Oracle stock has fallen 22%.

The Backlog Question

During his Nov. 18 show, Cramer flagged Oracle's September earnings as potentially planting "the seeds of the AI trade turning cold." The stock initially soared on strong future backlog numbers, but then reports emerged suggesting the majority of that backlog belonged to OpenAI. Suddenly, Oracle's diversification story looked shakier.

The numbers Oracle is projecting are staggering. The company guided for Cloud Infrastructure revenue to grow 77% to $18 billion in the current fiscal year. Looking further out, Oracle expects the segment to reach $32 billion, $73 billion, $114 billion and $144 billion over the next four fiscal years, respectively.

Those projections depend heavily on the AI infrastructure boom continuing at breakneck pace. Cramer warned that slower growth for companies like OpenAI could become a problem for "the nearly $1 trillion in spending by OpenAI and for its partners set to capitalize on the increased spending."

Additional Warning Signs

Beyond the OpenAI concentration risk, Cramer pointed to other concerns. Credit default swaps on Oracle debt have shown some stress, and former CEO Safra Catz has recently been selling stock options, both potential red flags for investors watching the company closely.

Cramer's bottom line: companies with business "hanging on OpenAI and ChatGPT just became more precarious."

What It Means for Investors

The situation highlights a classic risk in the infrastructure buildout game. Oracle positioned itself as the picks-and-shovels play for the AI gold rush, but if too much of your backlog comes from miners betting on one particular claim, you're more exposed than you might appear.

That said, the battle between Alphabet and OpenAI could see both companies emerge as winners in the AI race, helping Oracle along the way. The question is whether the market has priced in enough risk around customer concentration and the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending.

With concerns of an "AI bubble" growing louder, Cramer's comments might make investors more cautious about companies with concentrated exposure to AI's biggest spenders.

The Numbers

Oracle stock closed down Monday 0.50% to $200.94 versus a 52-week trading range of $118.86 to $345.72. Oracle shares are up 21% year-to-date in 2025.