If you've been bracing for a prolonged Bitcoin (BTC) bear market in 2026, Grayscale has some news for you: you're probably wrong. The investment firm released its November market commentary on Monday, and the message is clear—this isn't 2018 all over again.
This Pullback Looks Pretty Normal, Actually
Bitcoin's 32% drop from its October peak might feel painful, but Grayscale says it fits the pattern of typical bull-market corrections. Here's some context that might help: Bitcoin has experienced declines of 10% or more roughly 50 times since 2010. Sharp drawdowns aren't the exception—they're part of the game.
The firm's research team notes that investors consistently underestimate how common these moves are, even during strong upward cycles. But here's where things get interesting: Grayscale doesn't expect Bitcoin to enter one of those brutal 2-3 year downturns that defined previous cyclical declines.
Why the optimism? The market structure has fundamentally changed. Exchange-traded products and corporate digital asset treasuries have entered the picture in a big way, and that's reshaping how Bitcoin behaves. This evolution means the traditional four-year price rhythm tied to Bitcoin's supply halving might be losing its relevance.
Grayscale also points out something that didn't happen this cycle: a parabolic rally. Those vertical price surges that make everyone lose their minds? They've historically preceded multi-year crashes. This time around, price action has been more measured. Combined with evolving market participation, this moderation actually supports a more constructive outlook for 2025 and 2026.
The Bottom Might Be Closer Than You Think
Some interesting technical signals are flashing. Bitcoin put-option skew remains elevated across three and six-month tenors, which indicates active downside hedging. Grayscale notes this kind of positioning has historically appeared near market lows—basically, when everyone's buying insurance against further drops, you're often close to a bottom.
There's more evidence in the corporate treasury space. Major digital asset treasuries are currently trading at discounts to their net asset values, which may reflect reduced speculative exposure. Translation: the froth has come out of the market.
That said, the short-term picture remains mixed. Futures open interest has declined, and exchange-traded product flows were negative for most of November. On-chain data showed another spike in Coin Days Destroyed, indicating movement of older Bitcoin that may have belonged to long-term holders—potentially a sign of "OG" selling.
According to Grayscale, a clearer bottom requires three things: improvement in flows, stabilization in open interest, and a slowdown in selling from longtime holders.
Privacy Coins Are Having a Moment
While Bitcoin consolidated, privacy-focused cryptocurrencies stole the show in November. Zcash (ZEC), Monero (XMR), and Decred (DCR) all posted double-digit gains as the market rotated toward tokens with specific utility.
The rally reflected increased developer activity around privacy tools being built within the Ethereum ecosystem. Grayscale believes privacy is emerging as a defining theme for the next stage of digital asset utility, pointing to new frameworks and Layer-2 developments as evidence.
Meanwhile, institutional access continues to expand. XRP (XRP) and Dogecoin (DOGE) exchange-traded products began trading under new SEC listing standards. This change expands institutional access to large-cap tokens and broadens the eligible universe for regulated products—a development that could bring more traditional capital into the space.
The Macro Backdrop Looks Favorable
Zooming out to the broader economic picture, conditions remain supportive for crypto. Investors are watching the Federal Reserve's December 10 meeting for a possible rate cut. Lower real interest rates typically weigh on the U.S. Dollar and support alternative assets including Bitcoin—it's the classic "where else am I going to put my money" trade.
There's also movement on the regulatory front. Grayscale cited ongoing bipartisan work on crypto market-structure legislation, noting that progress could attract further institutional capital. The Senate Agriculture Committee released draft text in November, and analysts expect more movement next year if the issue avoids partisan gridlock.
Although valuations have lagged sector growth this year, Grayscale maintains that long-term fundamentals should eventually converge with market pricing. The firm emphasized a point worth remembering: the most significant gains historically accrued to long-term holders. Patience, in other words, tends to pay off.
Where Bitcoin Stands Right Now
As of Tuesday, Bitcoin bounced from the $84,000 support zone for the second time, reinforcing this level as the primary downside barrier. Buyers stepped in aggressively during the recent dip, which is encouraging. However, the cryptocurrency still trades below a descending trendline near $92,000 to $93,000 that rejected multiple rallies in November.
A breakout above $93,000 would shift momentum upward, with follow-through levels at $97,300 and $100,000 in sight. The Supertrend indicator sits near $97,335 and the Parabolic SAR around $92,974, underscoring the importance of these areas for trend confirmation.
On the flip side, if Bitcoin loses the $84,000 floor, the next supports appear at $78,000 and $72,000. Market technicians warn that the gap between these levels could lead to a fast decline if selling intensifies—there's not much in between to slow the fall.
For now, Bitcoin remains confined between $84,000 and $93,000. Traders are watching for a decisive move to determine the next phase, and given Grayscale's analysis, many are betting that move will be upward rather than the start of a prolonged bear market.