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Why Americans Feel Terrible About an Economy That Looks Pretty Great

MarketDash Editorial Team
6 days ago
Consumer sentiment has cratered to recession-like levels even as unemployment stays low, wages outpace inflation, and stocks hit record highs. The disconnect between hard data and how people actually feel reveals a deeper story about averages, sticker shock, and who really benefits from economic growth.

Here's a strange puzzle: American consumers are miserable right now, even though the economic data says they should be doing pretty well. Unemployment is low, inflation has cooled considerably, wages are rising, and stock markets keep hitting new highs. Yet consumer sentiment has collapsed to levels you'd normally associate with a full-blown recession.

When Good News Feels Like Bad News

The numbers are genuinely weird. In November, the composite Consumer Optimism Index dropped to 69.5, a reading that typically shows up when the economy is actively falling apart. Both the Conference Board and University of Michigan surveys show similar weakness across current conditions and future expectations.

Veteran Wall Street analyst Ed Yardeni finds the whole thing puzzling. The fundamentals look solid. The Misery Index, which simply adds together the unemployment rate and inflation rate, came in at 7.4% in September. That's meaningfully below its 9.0% average since the late 1940s. Historically, when the Misery Index is low, people feel optimistic. Except they don't right now.

Inflation has tumbled from its 9.0% peak in 2022 down to around 3.0%. Real hourly earnings reached a record $28.74 in August. Low-wage workers hit $24.71, also a record. Real disposable income per household climbed to $136,400 in the second quarter, and real consumption reached $124,000, both excluding the distortions from pandemic stimulus checks.

Stock prices, tracked by funds like Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), have surged to record highs thanks to strong corporate earnings and elevated valuations. Looking at all this, Yardeni concluded that "Americans, on average, have never been better off than they are today."

So what gives?

The Problem With Averages

That phrase "on average" is doing a lot of heavy lifting, and it might be where the story falls apart. Averages can mask serious distributional pain, and not everyone has kept pace with inflation the same way.

Economist Ryan Cummings at Brookings points to a critical disconnect: people focus on absolute price levels, not the rate of change. Sure, inflation has cooled to about 3%, but prices are still vastly higher than they were before the pandemic. Consumers remember what things used to cost, and that psychological anchor sits way below today's prices.

"While prices have only increased by 2.6% in the last year, consumers may be reacting to the fact that prices have cumulatively increased by 22% since 2020 and are still facing sticker shock when they go into the store," Cummings said.

That cumulative increase matters more to someone buying groceries or filling up their gas tank than year-over-year statistics. The sticker shock is real and persistent.

The Affordability Crisis Isn't Evenly Distributed

Younger and single Americans are getting hit particularly hard. Singles now make up 51.3% of the adult population, up from 38% in the late 1970s. The number of never-married adults has reached 91.6 million. Thirty percent of adults aged 25 to 34 are living with their parents, facing higher housing costs, slower wage growth, and inconsistent financial support.

There's a generational wealth gap at play too. Baby Boomers accumulated assets over decades of rising home values and stock prices. Younger households are trying to enter markets where housing, insurance, and other essentials cost far more relative to income. Many depend on help from parents or anticipate inheritances that won't materialize for years, which doesn't help with today's bills.

Where the Pain Shows Up

Since March 2020, headline inflation has jumped 22.1%. Wages rose 27.6% overall, which sounds good until you break it down. Low-wage workers saw 31.4% gains, while high-wage workers got just 18.9%. But here's the catch: in nine of fifteen tracked spending categories, price increases outpaced those wage gains.

Gasoline surged 32.1%. Services climbed 30.2%. Insurance costs across home, auto, and life products rose roughly 25% to 29%. These aren't abstract numbers. People see them in rent checks, grocery bills, gas station receipts, and insurance premiums. Even if wages kept pace on average, plenty of individuals ended up on the wrong side of that calculation.

Perception Versus Reality

Consumer sentiment is tanking not because the macro data is weak, but because perception hasn't caught up with the statistics. For many Americans, the lived experience involves sticker shock at the grocery store, memories of cheaper times, real income inequality, and a sense that the recovery isn't reaching everyone equally.

The hard numbers say the economy is healthy. The sentiment surveys say people feel terrible. Both can be true at the same time, especially when national averages obscure the reality that economic gains have been unevenly distributed. Until those subjective impressions shift, and until more people actually feel the benefits that the data suggests they should be enjoying, consumer gloom may stick around regardless of what the headlines say.

Back to News

Why Americans Feel Terrible About an Economy That Looks Pretty Great

MarketDash Editorial Team
6 days ago
Consumer sentiment has cratered to recession-like levels even as unemployment stays low, wages outpace inflation, and stocks hit record highs. The disconnect between hard data and how people actually feel reveals a deeper story about averages, sticker shock, and who really benefits from economic growth.

Here's a strange puzzle: American consumers are miserable right now, even though the economic data says they should be doing pretty well. Unemployment is low, inflation has cooled considerably, wages are rising, and stock markets keep hitting new highs. Yet consumer sentiment has collapsed to levels you'd normally associate with a full-blown recession.

When Good News Feels Like Bad News

The numbers are genuinely weird. In November, the composite Consumer Optimism Index dropped to 69.5, a reading that typically shows up when the economy is actively falling apart. Both the Conference Board and University of Michigan surveys show similar weakness across current conditions and future expectations.

Veteran Wall Street analyst Ed Yardeni finds the whole thing puzzling. The fundamentals look solid. The Misery Index, which simply adds together the unemployment rate and inflation rate, came in at 7.4% in September. That's meaningfully below its 9.0% average since the late 1940s. Historically, when the Misery Index is low, people feel optimistic. Except they don't right now.

Inflation has tumbled from its 9.0% peak in 2022 down to around 3.0%. Real hourly earnings reached a record $28.74 in August. Low-wage workers hit $24.71, also a record. Real disposable income per household climbed to $136,400 in the second quarter, and real consumption reached $124,000, both excluding the distortions from pandemic stimulus checks.

Stock prices, tracked by funds like Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), have surged to record highs thanks to strong corporate earnings and elevated valuations. Looking at all this, Yardeni concluded that "Americans, on average, have never been better off than they are today."

So what gives?

The Problem With Averages

That phrase "on average" is doing a lot of heavy lifting, and it might be where the story falls apart. Averages can mask serious distributional pain, and not everyone has kept pace with inflation the same way.

Economist Ryan Cummings at Brookings points to a critical disconnect: people focus on absolute price levels, not the rate of change. Sure, inflation has cooled to about 3%, but prices are still vastly higher than they were before the pandemic. Consumers remember what things used to cost, and that psychological anchor sits way below today's prices.

"While prices have only increased by 2.6% in the last year, consumers may be reacting to the fact that prices have cumulatively increased by 22% since 2020 and are still facing sticker shock when they go into the store," Cummings said.

That cumulative increase matters more to someone buying groceries or filling up their gas tank than year-over-year statistics. The sticker shock is real and persistent.

The Affordability Crisis Isn't Evenly Distributed

Younger and single Americans are getting hit particularly hard. Singles now make up 51.3% of the adult population, up from 38% in the late 1970s. The number of never-married adults has reached 91.6 million. Thirty percent of adults aged 25 to 34 are living with their parents, facing higher housing costs, slower wage growth, and inconsistent financial support.

There's a generational wealth gap at play too. Baby Boomers accumulated assets over decades of rising home values and stock prices. Younger households are trying to enter markets where housing, insurance, and other essentials cost far more relative to income. Many depend on help from parents or anticipate inheritances that won't materialize for years, which doesn't help with today's bills.

Where the Pain Shows Up

Since March 2020, headline inflation has jumped 22.1%. Wages rose 27.6% overall, which sounds good until you break it down. Low-wage workers saw 31.4% gains, while high-wage workers got just 18.9%. But here's the catch: in nine of fifteen tracked spending categories, price increases outpaced those wage gains.

Gasoline surged 32.1%. Services climbed 30.2%. Insurance costs across home, auto, and life products rose roughly 25% to 29%. These aren't abstract numbers. People see them in rent checks, grocery bills, gas station receipts, and insurance premiums. Even if wages kept pace on average, plenty of individuals ended up on the wrong side of that calculation.

Perception Versus Reality

Consumer sentiment is tanking not because the macro data is weak, but because perception hasn't caught up with the statistics. For many Americans, the lived experience involves sticker shock at the grocery store, memories of cheaper times, real income inequality, and a sense that the recovery isn't reaching everyone equally.

The hard numbers say the economy is healthy. The sentiment surveys say people feel terrible. Both can be true at the same time, especially when national averages obscure the reality that economic gains have been unevenly distributed. Until those subjective impressions shift, and until more people actually feel the benefits that the data suggests they should be enjoying, consumer gloom may stick around regardless of what the headlines say.