Sometimes the best upgrade is simply admitting you're no longer bearish. That's essentially what KeyBanc Capital Markets did with T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS), moving the wireless carrier from Underweight to Sector Weight—not exactly a love letter, but definitely a step up from where things stood.

What Changed the Mind

Analyst Brandon Nispel pointed to upcoming fourth-quarter results and 2026/2027 guidance as potential catalysts that could signal "an acceleration in organic growth rates following investment in 2025." Translation: T-Mobile is spending money now to make more money later, and that plan might actually work.

The stock has had a rough stretch, dropping 12.5% since July while the S&P 500 climbed 9.9%. That underperformance has made the risk/reward equation look more balanced, according to Nispel.

The Growth Story

Here's what's making the near-term picture less gloomy: KeyBanc expects organic EBITDA growth to reaccelerate toward 7%+ in 2026 and 2027, compared to roughly 5% in 2025. If that happens, "the near-term bear case becomes harder to justify," Nispel wrote.

There's also the Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) factor. Fears about a Verizon resurgence have been floating around, but KeyBanc thinks that threat may not materialize as quickly as some investors worry.

That said, Nispel noted the longer-term bear thesis "remains intact"—so this isn't a full conversion to optimism, just a recognition that things look less dire at current prices.

Price Movement: T-Mobile shares rose 0.36% to $207.36 at the time of publication on Tuesday.