MongoDB Crushes Q3 Earnings, Sparking Wave of Analyst Target Increases

MarketDash Editorial Team

5 days ago

MongoDB's third-quarter results blew past expectations, with Atlas growth accelerating to 30% year-over-year. The company raised its full-year guidance substantially, prompting 20 analysts to boost their price targets, with some increases topping 30%.

When a company doesn't just beat expectations but absolutely demolishes them, Wall Street notices. That's exactly what happened with MongoDB Inc. (MDB) on Monday, when the data platform company reported third-quarter results that had analysts scrambling to revise their models upward.

MongoDB posted third-quarter revenue of $628.31 million, comfortably ahead of analyst estimates of $591.52 million. But the real surprise came on the earnings line, where the company reported adjusted earnings of $1.32 per share—crushing analyst expectations of just 80 cents per share. That's not a beat; that's a blowout.

"MongoDB delivered strong third quarter results that exceeded the high-end of our guidance driven by continued strength in Atlas, which saw growth accelerate to 30% year-over-year. We also delivered meaningful margin outperformance as we executed on our plan to drive profitable growth. Reflecting this strength, we are raising our guidance on the top and bottom line for the rest of the year," said CJ Desai, president and CEO of MongoDB.

The Atlas reference is important here—that's MongoDB's cloud database service, and it's the engine driving the company's growth story. When your flagship product accelerates to 30% year-over-year growth while you're simultaneously expanding margins, that's the kind of narrative investors want to hear.

Guidance Gets a Major Upgrade

The immediate future looks equally bright. MongoDB expects fourth-quarter revenue between $665 million and $670 million, well above analyst estimates of $625.12 million. On the earnings front, the company guided for fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.44 to $1.88 per share versus expectations of just 93 cents per share.

But the real headline came with the full-year guidance revision. MongoDB raised its fiscal 2026 revenue outlook to a range of $2.43 billion to $2.44 billion, up from prior guidance of $2.34 billion to $2.36 billion. Analysts had been modeling $2.36 billion, so this represents meaningful upside. The earnings guidance got an even bigger boost—from a previous range of $3.64 to $3.73 per share to a new range of $4.76 to $4.80 per share. Street estimates had been sitting at $3.71 per share.

The market's reaction was swift and enthusiastic. MongoDB shares surged 23.6% to trade at $406.50 on Tuesday.

Analysts Respond with Price Target Increases

Following the earnings announcement, a parade of analysts updated their price targets on MongoDB. Here's how they responded:

Piper Sandler analyst Hannah Rudoff reiterated an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $400 to $490.
Needham analyst Mike Cikos maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $365 to $480.
Rosenblatt analyst Blair Abernethy maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $385 to $425.
Citizens analyst Patrick Walravens maintained a Market Outperform rating and raised the price target from $435 to $475.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Thomas Blakey maintained an Overweight rating and boosted the price target from $406 to $454.
RBC Capital analyst Rishi Jaluria maintained an Outperform rating and raised the price target from $405 to $450.
Scotiabank analyst Patrick Colville maintained a Sector Perform rating and raised the price target from $320 to $415.
Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow maintained an Overweight rating and boosted the price target from $390 to $415.
B of A Securities analyst Bradley Sills maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $440 to $480.
Guggenheim analyst Howard Ma maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $400 to $450.
Bernstein analyst Firoz Valliji maintained an Outperform rating and increased the price target from $338 to $452.
Wells Fargo analyst Ryan Macwilliams maintained an Overweight rating and boosted the price target from $430 to $450.
UBS analyst Karl Keirstead maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $330 to $440.
Canaccord Genuity analyst Kingsley Crane maintained a Buy rating and increased the price target from $375 to $455.
DA Davidson analyst Rudy Kessinger maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $415 to $465.
Mizuho analyst Matthew Broome maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $250 to $310.
Macquarie analyst Steve Koenig maintained a Neutral rating and increased the price target from $305 to $385.
Truist Securities analyst Miller Jump maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $400 to $450.
Stifel analyst Brad Reback maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $375 to $450.
BMO Capital analyst Keith Bachman maintained an Outperform rating and raised the price target from $415 to $455.

What's notable here isn't just the unanimous upward revisions, but the magnitude of some increases. Several analysts who had been more cautious—particularly those with Neutral ratings—made substantial jumps in their price targets, suggesting the results changed some previously skeptical minds about the company's growth trajectory and profitability path.

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