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MongoDB Crushes Earnings as Nine Analysts Rush to Raise Price Targets

MarketDash Editorial Team
5 days ago
MongoDB delivered a blockbuster third quarter that sent shares soaring over 23% and prompted nine analysts to hike their price targets. Atlas growth accelerated to 30% as the database company proves it's capitalizing on AI-driven demand.

MongoDB Inc. (MDB) had itself quite the Tuesday. Shares surged more than 23% after the database company dropped fiscal third-quarter results that had analysts scrambling to recalibrate their models and boost price targets. When nine different analysts raise their targets in rapid succession, you know something interesting happened.

The numbers tell the story pretty clearly. Revenue came in at $628.3 million, a 19% year-over-year jump that sailed past the $593.9 million consensus. Non-GAAP earnings hit $1.32 per share versus expectations of just 81 cents. But the real headline was Atlas, MongoDB's cloud database platform, which accelerated to 30% year-over-year growth for the third straight quarter. That kind of reacceleration doesn't happen by accident.

The Analyst Chorus

Let's walk through what the analyst community is saying, because the enthusiasm is pretty widespread:

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Thomas Blakey maintained his Overweight rating and bumped his price target from $406 to $454. He pointed to broad strength across Atlas and especially Enterprise Advanced, noting that MongoDB delivered "impressive" operating margins around 20%, with fiscal Q4 guidance implying roughly 21%. Some operating expenses got pushed to the fourth quarter and into fiscal 2027, but Blakey sees MongoDB as well-positioned to benefit from companies modernizing their data infrastructure for AI and agentic AI applications.

RBC Capital Markets analyst Rishi Jaluria kept his Outperform rating and raised his target from $405 to $450. He highlighted that Atlas growth accelerated to 30% year-over-year, driving those 20% non-GAAP operating margins. "Execution remains strong under new CEO CJ Desai, who emphasized MongoDB's expanding role as a unified data platform for mission-critical and AI workloads," Jaluria wrote.

Goldman Sachs analyst Matthew Martino stuck with his Buy rating and took his price target from $405 all the way to $475. He called it a "standout quarter," with revenue topping consensus by 5.8%. Atlas consumption trends stayed healthy as larger enterprises move more strategic workloads onto the platform and lock in multi-year Enterprise Advanced commitments. Even MongoDB's non-Atlas business outperformed, mainly thanks to higher multi-year deals.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives reaffirmed his Outperform rating and lifted his target from $400 to $440. He noted MongoDB added more than 2,500 net new customers while existing customers kept expanding their spending. Customers with at least $100,000 in annual recurring revenue reached 2,694, up from 2,564 the previous quarter. Management guided to Q4 revenues of $587-$592 million, with subscription revenues of $609.1 million coming in above the $574.8 million consensus. The fiscal 2026 guidance came in significantly ahead of Street expectations.

Guggenheim Securities analyst Howard Ma maintained his Buy rating and raised his target from $400 to $450. He estimated that Atlas New ARR growth likely hit 40%, accelerating from 34% in the fiscal second quarter. Management indicated Atlas consumption trends stayed in line with seasonal patterns. Non-Atlas revenues declined 8% year-over-year to $138 million but still beat consensus of $119 million. Non-Atlas ARR grew 8%, which management attributed to "continued strength from their largest customers in the US, as well as broad-based strength in EMEA."

Citizens JMP Securities analyst Patrick Walravens kept his Market Outperform rating and pushed his target from $435 to $475. He emphasized that guidance came in much better than expected for both Q4 and fiscal 2026. Management's Q4 revenue outlook of $665-$670 million implies growth around 22% at the midpoint, crushing consensus of $626 million. The company guided to Q4 non-GAAP earnings of $1.44-$1.48 per share versus consensus of 94 cents. For the full year, management projected revenue of $2.434-$2.439 billion and non-GAAP earnings of $4.76-$4.80 per share, compared to consensus of $2.361 billion and $3.77 per share.

Scotiabank analyst Patrick Colville maintained his Sector Perform rating but still hiked his target from $320 to $415. He called out the reacceleration in Atlas growth and noted that profitability "massively surprised to the upside." The fiscal Q4 guidance suggests durable strength in both revenue and profit. "All in all a deeply impressive swan song for Ittycheria, after 11 years leading MongoDB, and a nice platform for newly appointed CEO Desai to build upon," Colville wrote.

Needham analyst Mike Cikos maintained his Buy rating and raised his target from $365 to $480, the highest of the bunch. He said MongoDB beat guidance "on every metric" in the third quarter. The 30% year-over-year Atlas growth met elevated expectations, and on a days-adjusted basis, Atlas trends were consistent, climbing 7.3% quarter-over-quarter. Non-Atlas revenue also contributed to the beat, with about two-thirds of the outperformance coming from multi-year licenses.

Rosenblatt Securities analyst Blair Abernethy kept his Buy rating and lifted his target from $385 to $425. He characterized the quarter as a "solid" upside with 19% year-over-year revenue growth, more multi-year renewal deals than expected, and that 30% Atlas consumption growth. "We believe Mongo is seeing solid uptake of MongoDB 8.0+, which has significant performance improvements and is leading enterprises to expand their Mongo usage for application modernization," Abernethy wrote.

What's Driving the Momentum

The common threads running through these analyst notes are pretty clear. First, Atlas is firing on all cylinders, with consumption accelerating as enterprises commit to bigger, more strategic workloads. Second, the shift to multi-year Enterprise Advanced deals is providing both revenue visibility and margin expansion. Third, the AI narrative isn't just hype here—companies really are modernizing their data infrastructure to handle AI and agentic AI applications, and MongoDB is positioned right in the middle of that trend.

The margin story deserves attention too. Hitting 20% non-GAAP operating margins with guidance pointing to 21% in Q4 shows MongoDB is figuring out how to scale profitably while still growing the top line at nearly 20%. That's the kind of profile that gets investors excited.

And then there's the leadership transition. New CEO CJ Desai is stepping into a pretty sweet situation, taking over from longtime CEO Dev Ittycheria with momentum clearly in MongoDB's favor. Executing a strong quarter during a CEO transition is no small feat.

At the time of publication on Tuesday, MongoDB shares had climbed 23.75% to $406.97. With price targets now ranging from $415 to $480 and analysts unanimous in their positive outlook, the market is betting that MongoDB's database dominance has staying power in the AI era.

Back to News

MongoDB Crushes Earnings as Nine Analysts Rush to Raise Price Targets

MarketDash Editorial Team
5 days ago
MongoDB delivered a blockbuster third quarter that sent shares soaring over 23% and prompted nine analysts to hike their price targets. Atlas growth accelerated to 30% as the database company proves it's capitalizing on AI-driven demand.

MongoDB Inc. (MDB) had itself quite the Tuesday. Shares surged more than 23% after the database company dropped fiscal third-quarter results that had analysts scrambling to recalibrate their models and boost price targets. When nine different analysts raise their targets in rapid succession, you know something interesting happened.

The numbers tell the story pretty clearly. Revenue came in at $628.3 million, a 19% year-over-year jump that sailed past the $593.9 million consensus. Non-GAAP earnings hit $1.32 per share versus expectations of just 81 cents. But the real headline was Atlas, MongoDB's cloud database platform, which accelerated to 30% year-over-year growth for the third straight quarter. That kind of reacceleration doesn't happen by accident.

The Analyst Chorus

Let's walk through what the analyst community is saying, because the enthusiasm is pretty widespread:

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Thomas Blakey maintained his Overweight rating and bumped his price target from $406 to $454. He pointed to broad strength across Atlas and especially Enterprise Advanced, noting that MongoDB delivered "impressive" operating margins around 20%, with fiscal Q4 guidance implying roughly 21%. Some operating expenses got pushed to the fourth quarter and into fiscal 2027, but Blakey sees MongoDB as well-positioned to benefit from companies modernizing their data infrastructure for AI and agentic AI applications.

RBC Capital Markets analyst Rishi Jaluria kept his Outperform rating and raised his target from $405 to $450. He highlighted that Atlas growth accelerated to 30% year-over-year, driving those 20% non-GAAP operating margins. "Execution remains strong under new CEO CJ Desai, who emphasized MongoDB's expanding role as a unified data platform for mission-critical and AI workloads," Jaluria wrote.

Goldman Sachs analyst Matthew Martino stuck with his Buy rating and took his price target from $405 all the way to $475. He called it a "standout quarter," with revenue topping consensus by 5.8%. Atlas consumption trends stayed healthy as larger enterprises move more strategic workloads onto the platform and lock in multi-year Enterprise Advanced commitments. Even MongoDB's non-Atlas business outperformed, mainly thanks to higher multi-year deals.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives reaffirmed his Outperform rating and lifted his target from $400 to $440. He noted MongoDB added more than 2,500 net new customers while existing customers kept expanding their spending. Customers with at least $100,000 in annual recurring revenue reached 2,694, up from 2,564 the previous quarter. Management guided to Q4 revenues of $587-$592 million, with subscription revenues of $609.1 million coming in above the $574.8 million consensus. The fiscal 2026 guidance came in significantly ahead of Street expectations.

Guggenheim Securities analyst Howard Ma maintained his Buy rating and raised his target from $400 to $450. He estimated that Atlas New ARR growth likely hit 40%, accelerating from 34% in the fiscal second quarter. Management indicated Atlas consumption trends stayed in line with seasonal patterns. Non-Atlas revenues declined 8% year-over-year to $138 million but still beat consensus of $119 million. Non-Atlas ARR grew 8%, which management attributed to "continued strength from their largest customers in the US, as well as broad-based strength in EMEA."

Citizens JMP Securities analyst Patrick Walravens kept his Market Outperform rating and pushed his target from $435 to $475. He emphasized that guidance came in much better than expected for both Q4 and fiscal 2026. Management's Q4 revenue outlook of $665-$670 million implies growth around 22% at the midpoint, crushing consensus of $626 million. The company guided to Q4 non-GAAP earnings of $1.44-$1.48 per share versus consensus of 94 cents. For the full year, management projected revenue of $2.434-$2.439 billion and non-GAAP earnings of $4.76-$4.80 per share, compared to consensus of $2.361 billion and $3.77 per share.

Scotiabank analyst Patrick Colville maintained his Sector Perform rating but still hiked his target from $320 to $415. He called out the reacceleration in Atlas growth and noted that profitability "massively surprised to the upside." The fiscal Q4 guidance suggests durable strength in both revenue and profit. "All in all a deeply impressive swan song for Ittycheria, after 11 years leading MongoDB, and a nice platform for newly appointed CEO Desai to build upon," Colville wrote.

Needham analyst Mike Cikos maintained his Buy rating and raised his target from $365 to $480, the highest of the bunch. He said MongoDB beat guidance "on every metric" in the third quarter. The 30% year-over-year Atlas growth met elevated expectations, and on a days-adjusted basis, Atlas trends were consistent, climbing 7.3% quarter-over-quarter. Non-Atlas revenue also contributed to the beat, with about two-thirds of the outperformance coming from multi-year licenses.

Rosenblatt Securities analyst Blair Abernethy kept his Buy rating and lifted his target from $385 to $425. He characterized the quarter as a "solid" upside with 19% year-over-year revenue growth, more multi-year renewal deals than expected, and that 30% Atlas consumption growth. "We believe Mongo is seeing solid uptake of MongoDB 8.0+, which has significant performance improvements and is leading enterprises to expand their Mongo usage for application modernization," Abernethy wrote.

What's Driving the Momentum

The common threads running through these analyst notes are pretty clear. First, Atlas is firing on all cylinders, with consumption accelerating as enterprises commit to bigger, more strategic workloads. Second, the shift to multi-year Enterprise Advanced deals is providing both revenue visibility and margin expansion. Third, the AI narrative isn't just hype here—companies really are modernizing their data infrastructure to handle AI and agentic AI applications, and MongoDB is positioned right in the middle of that trend.

The margin story deserves attention too. Hitting 20% non-GAAP operating margins with guidance pointing to 21% in Q4 shows MongoDB is figuring out how to scale profitably while still growing the top line at nearly 20%. That's the kind of profile that gets investors excited.

And then there's the leadership transition. New CEO CJ Desai is stepping into a pretty sweet situation, taking over from longtime CEO Dev Ittycheria with momentum clearly in MongoDB's favor. Executing a strong quarter during a CEO transition is no small feat.

At the time of publication on Tuesday, MongoDB shares had climbed 23.75% to $406.97. With price targets now ranging from $415 to $480 and analysts unanimous in their positive outlook, the market is betting that MongoDB's database dominance has staying power in the AI era.