XRP (XRP) and Cardano (ADA) both put up solid numbers Tuesday, with gains that would normally have crypto traders getting excited. XRP jumped 9% while Cardano surged an even more impressive 15%, both bouncing cleanly off support levels that have held before. The problem? Neither token has managed to crack through the overhead resistance that's been killing rallies for weeks now.

Let's talk about what's actually happening here, because a bounce is nice but it doesn't mean the trend has changed.

The $2.25–$2.30 Wall That Keeps Rejecting XRP

XRP's bounce has certainly stabilized things in the short term, but the market keeps running into the same ceiling around $2.25 to $2.30. This isn't just some random price level either. This zone lines up with multiple moving averages and sits right at the upper boundary of the current triangle pattern that's been forming.

What makes this resistance even tougher is that the upper boundary of the triangle also coincides with the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels. For anyone not fluent in technical analysis jargon, that basically means this area has become a reinforced barrier with multiple reasons for sellers to show up.

If XRP can actually close above $2.30, things start to look more interesting. The next target would be $2.41, followed by a broader pivot zone near $2.58. Traders who watch historical price action closely point to $2.58 as the first level where a sustained reversal would start to feel more credible rather than just another failed bounce.

What Happens If This Bounce Fades

On the flip side, if this latest bounce runs out of steam, XRP has a pretty clear roadmap to the downside. The $2.00 level is acting as the current line of defense for bulls. Losing that support would expose the market to deeper pullbacks at $1.95 and $1.81, both areas where buyers stepped in earlier this year and showed they were willing to defend.

A sharper decline could push things all the way down to $1.61, which aligns with a major support level on the daily chart. The reason XRP keeps getting stuck between $2.00 and $2.30 is simple: a lot of trading activity over the past year has happened in this range. That creates density, and density creates friction.

Short-term indicators including MACD and RSI show the market has stabilized, which is good news. But stabilization isn't the same thing as a reversal. There's no clear sign yet that the longer-term downtrend has ended. A confirmed move above $2.30 would shift control back toward buyers and open the door to revisiting $2.58 and potentially even $3.05.

December Has Historically Been Wild for XRP

Here's where things get interesting from a historical perspective. December has been an absolutely wild month for XRP over the years. The token posted gains of 818.9% in December 2017, 531.9% in December 2020, and 118.1% in December 2014. Those are the kind of numbers that create legends and get people very excited about history repeating.

But December has also delivered some brutal losses. The month saw a -66.5% unwind in 2020, reminding everyone that volatility cuts both ways. The average December return for XRP sits near +64%, which sounds great until you look at the median return of -2.25%. That massive gap between the average and the median tells you that outcomes vary wildly depending on the year.

As of December 2nd, XRP recorded approximately $4.9 million in net outflows, according to Coinglass. The divergence between short-term price stabilization and ongoing outflows suggests that investors are staying selective rather than rushing back in aggressively. People are watching, but they're not convinced yet.

Cardano's Impressive Bounce Still Faces Major Obstacles

Now let's shift to Cardano (ADA), which actually posted the stronger percentage gain of the two. Cardano surged 12% after bouncing cleanly from the bottom of its falling channel. This was one of ADA's strongest single-day recoveries in weeks, and it came directly off long-term support that has held multiple times.

The move looks impressive on the surface, but here's the catch: price is still trading inside the same downward channel that has capped every rally since October. The token hasn't broken the pattern yet, it's just bounced within it.

The cluster of moving averages between $0.41 and $0.44 represents the first major ceiling ahead, and ADA is testing that zone right now. A breakout above this area could fuel a push toward $0.47 to $0.50, where the upper boundary of the descending channel sits. That would be the level that actually changes the story.

If ADA fails to hold these gains, the downside targets are pretty clear. A retest of support near $0.38 would be the first stop, with a potentially deeper pullback to the $0.34–$0.36 zone if selling pressure intensifies.

What This All Means for Traders Right Now

For now, both XRP and Cardano are showing signs of life, but neither has done enough to confirm that the downtrend is over. What we're seeing are strong bounces off support rather than confirmed trend changes. That distinction matters a lot.

Bulls need to see XRP close decisively above $2.30 and Cardano break above $0.44 and hold it. Without those moves, these rallies remain vulnerable to fading back into the same ranges that have trapped traders for weeks. The technical setup shows stabilization, which is the first step. But stabilization alone doesn't pay the bills. Traders need follow-through, and that means breaking resistance with conviction and holding those levels on retests.

The next few days will be telling. December's historical volatility for XRP suggests bigger moves are coming one way or another. Whether those moves are up or down depends on whether bulls can finally reclaim the levels they've been struggling with, or whether sellers show up again at resistance like they have every other time recently.