Vice President JD Vance is making a direct connection between the Trump administration's immigration crackdown and falling rental prices across America. Late Wednesday, he took to X to declare the relationship between illegal immigration and housing costs "as clear as day."

Taking Credit For Falling Rents

Vance's post responded to Housing and Urban Development Secretary Scott Turner, who had shared data linking immigration enforcement to declining rents. Turner's argument goes like this: no undocumented immigrants released into the U.S. for six months, 2 million removed from the country, and rents falling for four straight months. Coincidence? Turner doesn't think so.

"Proud we're moving in the right direction," Vance wrote, though he added a caveat: "Still so much to do."

But here's where things get interesting. The housing market data suggests something more complex is happening than simple supply-and-demand from immigration policy.

What's Really Happening In The Housing Market

According to a CNBC report, apartment rents have indeed been dropping, with vacancies hitting record highs. U.S. apartment rents fell 1% in November to a national median of $1,367, representing the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Rents are now 1.1% lower than a year ago and sitting 5.2% below their 2022 peak.

Housing analysts attribute this trend primarily to surging supply meeting weakening demand, particularly from young workers who typically drive rental markets. It's Economics 101, just with more apartments than expected hitting the market all at once.

The broader housing picture shows equally dramatic shifts. In November, The Kobeissi Letter noted something remarkable: for the first time since 2005, new home prices have fallen below existing home prices. Three years ago, new homes commanded a 10% premium. After the 2012 financial crisis, that gap reached 40%. Now it's reversed entirely.

Administration Celebrates Affordability Gains

The Trump administration has been quick to highlight housing affordability improvements across multiple metrics. In November, the White House pointed to Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data showing the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate had fallen to 6.17% by late October, roughly 12% lower than when President Donald Trump took office.

Shelter inflation has also cooled significantly. According to the Consumer Price Index, the 12-month increase in housing costs hit its lowest point in four years, offering genuine relief to renters and homebuyers alike.

But Critics See A Different Story

Not everyone is celebrating the administration's housing policies. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) has accused Trump's team of enabling landlords to "rip off renters" through alleged rent price-fixing schemes.

Warren specifically criticized algorithmic rent-setting tools and claimed Trump's Justice Department approved a deal allowing RealPage to continue what she characterizes as overcharging renters. Instead of cracking down on these practices, Warren argues, the administration gave them a green light.

So what's really driving falling rents? Immigration enforcement, surging apartment construction, cooling demand from young workers, or some combination of all three? The data supports multiple interpretations, which means we'll likely see this debate continue as both sides cherry-pick their preferred statistics.

What's undeniable is that renters are catching a break after years of punishing increases. Whether you credit immigration policy or housing supply dynamics probably depends on where you sit politically. The market, as usual, doesn't particularly care about the narrative—it just keeps doing its thing.