Bitcoin (BTC) has clawed back 16% from its $80,000 lows, which sounds great until you zoom out and see the bigger picture. Analyst Trader Mayne laid out the uncomfortable truth in a Thursday YouTube update: the macro structure is still bearish, and this bounce is likely forming a lower high rather than launching toward new records.

The critical battleground? A resistance band between $98,000 and $100,000. Bulls need to decisively crack through that zone and break the established downtrend line, or risk creating a bear flag—one of those patterns that tends to precede more pain, not relief.

Still, Mayne isn't completely ruling out an upside surprise. He points to a few potential catalysts: the end of quantitative tightening, Vanguard reopening ETF access, and extreme bearish sentiment that could fuel a contrarian squeeze. In the altcoin world, he notes Ethereum might push toward $4,000 as its own lower high. His advice? Tune out social media chatter and stick to key levels.

But here's the kicker: Mayne is treating this rally as a selling opportunity, not a reversal. He's planning to unload his remaining spot holdings if Bitcoin rallies into the $100,000–$110,000 range, expecting a deeper bear phase in 2026 with potential re-entry points around $50,000–$60,000.

"My focus right now is just selling the remainder of my spot," he explained, adding that "if the top's $124,000 and you were able to exit the vast majority of your spot around $100,000, I think that's a pretty good exit."