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Five Below Crushes Expectations, Analysts Rush to Raise Price Targets

MarketDash Editorial Team
3 days ago
Five Below delivered a blowout third quarter with revenue topping $1 billion for the second straight quarter and earnings nearly tripling estimates. The discount retailer raised its full-year guidance substantially, prompting six major Wall Street firms to boost their price targets on the stock.

Five Below Inc. (FIVE) just proved that dollar-store-adjacent retail isn't dead—it's thriving. The discount retailer delivered third-quarter results Wednesday evening that had Wall Street scrambling to recalibrate their models.

The numbers tell a pretty compelling story. Five Below posted third-quarter revenue of $1.04 billion, comfortably beating analyst estimates of $983.07 million. But the real jaw-dropper was earnings: adjusted EPS came in at 68 cents per share, nearly tripling the consensus estimate of just 24 cents per share. That's not a beat, that's a demolition.

"We are thrilled to report third quarter results that surpassed our expectations, marking our second consecutive quarter of over $1 billion in sales and robust double-digit same-store sales growth," said Winnie Park, CEO of Five Below.

And the company isn't pumping the brakes. Five Below guided for fourth-quarter revenue between $1.58 billion and $1.61 billion, with adjusted earnings of $3.36 to $3.54 per share. Analysts had been expecting revenue of $1.56 billion and adjusted earnings of $3.10 per share, so the guidance represents another upside surprise.

The full-year outlook got an even more substantial upgrade. Five Below raised its revenue guidance from a range of $4.44 billion to $4.52 billion up to a new range of $4.63 billion to $4.65 billion, compared to analyst estimates of $4.57 billion. The earnings guidance jumped from $4.76 to $5.16 per share all the way up to $5.71 to $5.89 per share, versus the Street's $5.18 estimate.

Despite the blowout results, Five Below shares dipped 0.2% to close at $162.84 on Thursday. Sometimes good news is already priced in, or traders are just weird.

Wall Street analysts wasted no time adjusting their models. Here's how six major firms responded to the earnings announcement:

  • Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman maintained an Outperform rating and raised his price target from $170 to $195.
  • Mizuho analyst David Bellinger maintained a Neutral rating and lifted his target from $160 to $165.
  • Wells Fargo analyst Edward Kelly stuck with his Overweight rating and bumped his target from $175 to $190.
  • Barclays analyst Seth Sigman maintained an Equal-Weight rating but raised his price target from $135 to $160.
  • UBS analyst Michael Lasser maintained a Buy rating and increased his target from $204 to $210.
  • Evercore ISI Group analyst Michael Montani maintained an In-Line rating and raised his target from $175 to $180.

The consensus seems to be that Five Below is executing well, though analysts remain divided on whether the current valuation leaves enough upside for aggressive positions. Either way, two consecutive billion-dollar quarters and double-digit comp growth suggest this retailer has figured something out that many of its peers haven't.

Back to News

Five Below Crushes Expectations, Analysts Rush to Raise Price Targets

MarketDash Editorial Team
3 days ago
Five Below delivered a blowout third quarter with revenue topping $1 billion for the second straight quarter and earnings nearly tripling estimates. The discount retailer raised its full-year guidance substantially, prompting six major Wall Street firms to boost their price targets on the stock.

Five Below Inc. (FIVE) just proved that dollar-store-adjacent retail isn't dead—it's thriving. The discount retailer delivered third-quarter results Wednesday evening that had Wall Street scrambling to recalibrate their models.

The numbers tell a pretty compelling story. Five Below posted third-quarter revenue of $1.04 billion, comfortably beating analyst estimates of $983.07 million. But the real jaw-dropper was earnings: adjusted EPS came in at 68 cents per share, nearly tripling the consensus estimate of just 24 cents per share. That's not a beat, that's a demolition.

"We are thrilled to report third quarter results that surpassed our expectations, marking our second consecutive quarter of over $1 billion in sales and robust double-digit same-store sales growth," said Winnie Park, CEO of Five Below.

And the company isn't pumping the brakes. Five Below guided for fourth-quarter revenue between $1.58 billion and $1.61 billion, with adjusted earnings of $3.36 to $3.54 per share. Analysts had been expecting revenue of $1.56 billion and adjusted earnings of $3.10 per share, so the guidance represents another upside surprise.

The full-year outlook got an even more substantial upgrade. Five Below raised its revenue guidance from a range of $4.44 billion to $4.52 billion up to a new range of $4.63 billion to $4.65 billion, compared to analyst estimates of $4.57 billion. The earnings guidance jumped from $4.76 to $5.16 per share all the way up to $5.71 to $5.89 per share, versus the Street's $5.18 estimate.

Despite the blowout results, Five Below shares dipped 0.2% to close at $162.84 on Thursday. Sometimes good news is already priced in, or traders are just weird.

Wall Street analysts wasted no time adjusting their models. Here's how six major firms responded to the earnings announcement:

  • Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman maintained an Outperform rating and raised his price target from $170 to $195.
  • Mizuho analyst David Bellinger maintained a Neutral rating and lifted his target from $160 to $165.
  • Wells Fargo analyst Edward Kelly stuck with his Overweight rating and bumped his target from $175 to $190.
  • Barclays analyst Seth Sigman maintained an Equal-Weight rating but raised his price target from $135 to $160.
  • UBS analyst Michael Lasser maintained a Buy rating and increased his target from $204 to $210.
  • Evercore ISI Group analyst Michael Montani maintained an In-Line rating and raised his target from $175 to $180.

The consensus seems to be that Five Below is executing well, though analysts remain divided on whether the current valuation leaves enough upside for aggressive positions. Either way, two consecutive billion-dollar quarters and double-digit comp growth suggest this retailer has figured something out that many of its peers haven't.