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Costco's November Sales Miss the Mark, But JPMorgan Says Don't Panic Yet

MarketDash Editorial Team
3 days ago
Costco's November sales came in softer than Wall Street expected, but analysts say the fundamentals still look solid. JPMorgan trimmed its price target while keeping its bullish stance, and traffic trends suggest the dip might just be noise.

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) hit a speed bump in November, with U.S. core sales growth coming in softer than analysts expected. It's the kind of number that makes Wall Street sit up and wonder if the retailer's hot streak is cooling off, especially with the holiday shopping season in full swing.

But before anyone sounds the alarm, analysts are saying the underlying story still looks pretty good. Traffic remains strong, spending trends are holding up, and the miss might have more to do with calendar quirks and temporary wobbles than any fundamental shift in consumer behavior.

The Numbers Behind the Miss

Costco's November U.S. core comparable sales climbed 5.8%, which sounds decent until you realize Wall Street was expecting 6.8%. That's a notable gap, and it's raising questions about whether the momentum that's carried the warehouse giant through most of the year is starting to fade.

JPMorgan analyst Christopher Horvers trimmed his price target from $1,050 to $1,025, though he's sticking with his Overweight rating. His take? The broader trend since May actually looks pretty consistent once you adjust for calendar shifts and reporting oddities. He's cautioning investors not to read too much into monthly noise, especially since early November saw some drag from government shutdown-related disruptions before demand picked back up.

The operational metrics still look solid. Traffic is up roughly 3% to 4% across U.S. and enterprise-wide operations, and ticket growth is running around 2.5% when you strip out gas and foreign exchange effects. Canada and other international markets actually beat expectations, and digital continues to be a standout with digitally enabled comps up 16.3% excluding foreign exchange.

Category Performance and What's Next

Breaking down the categories, Fresh and Food & Sundries held solid gains, Non-Foods stayed positive despite some cooling in major appliances and electronics, and ancillary businesses like pharmacy, optical, and the food court showed improvement. For December, JPMorgan is modeling total company core comps around 5.8%.

A couple things worth watching: cannibalization from new store openings is holding at around 60 basis points, and the boost from those viral gold bars is fading as comparisons get tougher. Costco also started reporting a broader metric—total comps excluding all gas and foreign exchange—which came in at 7.0% for November.

Valuation: Still Premium, Still Justified?

Horvers' $1,025 price target is based on a 47x price-to-earnings multiple applied to his fiscal 2027 estimates. That's a rich valuation by most standards, but he argues it's justified by Costco's market share gains, resilient traffic patterns, and emerging revenue streams like advertising. His forecasts call for fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $19.94 and fiscal 2027 of $21.70.

The Tariff Wildcard

In a twist that adds another layer to the story, Costco has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. Court of International Trade seeking a full refund of tariffs paid under the Trump administration's emergency tariffs imposed through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

The company is arguing the duties are unlawful and isn't waiting around to see how the Supreme Court rules on tariff authority. They're acting now to protect potential recoveries, because refund eligibility isn't automatic even if the tariffs get struck down.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has thrown some cold water on the idea, questioning what kind of refund would actually apply if foreign suppliers had already reduced their pre-tariff prices to absorb the costs. Those price cuts make it messy to figure out who should get reimbursed and how much.

The Bull Case Remains

Not everyone is trimming targets. Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman is keeping his Outperform rating and $1,100 price target intact, adding another bullish voice to the mix.

The bottom line? November wasn't Costco's strongest showing, but the fundamentals still look pretty healthy. Traffic trends are solid, digital is booming, and international markets are pulling their weight. The question is whether this is just a blip or the start of something more meaningful. For now, analysts are betting on the former.

COST Price Action: Costco Wholesale shares were down 3.26% at $892.21 at the time of publication on Thursday.

Back to News

Costco's November Sales Miss the Mark, But JPMorgan Says Don't Panic Yet

MarketDash Editorial Team
3 days ago
Costco's November sales came in softer than Wall Street expected, but analysts say the fundamentals still look solid. JPMorgan trimmed its price target while keeping its bullish stance, and traffic trends suggest the dip might just be noise.

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) hit a speed bump in November, with U.S. core sales growth coming in softer than analysts expected. It's the kind of number that makes Wall Street sit up and wonder if the retailer's hot streak is cooling off, especially with the holiday shopping season in full swing.

But before anyone sounds the alarm, analysts are saying the underlying story still looks pretty good. Traffic remains strong, spending trends are holding up, and the miss might have more to do with calendar quirks and temporary wobbles than any fundamental shift in consumer behavior.

The Numbers Behind the Miss

Costco's November U.S. core comparable sales climbed 5.8%, which sounds decent until you realize Wall Street was expecting 6.8%. That's a notable gap, and it's raising questions about whether the momentum that's carried the warehouse giant through most of the year is starting to fade.

JPMorgan analyst Christopher Horvers trimmed his price target from $1,050 to $1,025, though he's sticking with his Overweight rating. His take? The broader trend since May actually looks pretty consistent once you adjust for calendar shifts and reporting oddities. He's cautioning investors not to read too much into monthly noise, especially since early November saw some drag from government shutdown-related disruptions before demand picked back up.

The operational metrics still look solid. Traffic is up roughly 3% to 4% across U.S. and enterprise-wide operations, and ticket growth is running around 2.5% when you strip out gas and foreign exchange effects. Canada and other international markets actually beat expectations, and digital continues to be a standout with digitally enabled comps up 16.3% excluding foreign exchange.

Category Performance and What's Next

Breaking down the categories, Fresh and Food & Sundries held solid gains, Non-Foods stayed positive despite some cooling in major appliances and electronics, and ancillary businesses like pharmacy, optical, and the food court showed improvement. For December, JPMorgan is modeling total company core comps around 5.8%.

A couple things worth watching: cannibalization from new store openings is holding at around 60 basis points, and the boost from those viral gold bars is fading as comparisons get tougher. Costco also started reporting a broader metric—total comps excluding all gas and foreign exchange—which came in at 7.0% for November.

Valuation: Still Premium, Still Justified?

Horvers' $1,025 price target is based on a 47x price-to-earnings multiple applied to his fiscal 2027 estimates. That's a rich valuation by most standards, but he argues it's justified by Costco's market share gains, resilient traffic patterns, and emerging revenue streams like advertising. His forecasts call for fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $19.94 and fiscal 2027 of $21.70.

The Tariff Wildcard

In a twist that adds another layer to the story, Costco has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. Court of International Trade seeking a full refund of tariffs paid under the Trump administration's emergency tariffs imposed through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

The company is arguing the duties are unlawful and isn't waiting around to see how the Supreme Court rules on tariff authority. They're acting now to protect potential recoveries, because refund eligibility isn't automatic even if the tariffs get struck down.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has thrown some cold water on the idea, questioning what kind of refund would actually apply if foreign suppliers had already reduced their pre-tariff prices to absorb the costs. Those price cuts make it messy to figure out who should get reimbursed and how much.

The Bull Case Remains

Not everyone is trimming targets. Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman is keeping his Outperform rating and $1,100 price target intact, adding another bullish voice to the mix.

The bottom line? November wasn't Costco's strongest showing, but the fundamentals still look pretty healthy. Traffic trends are solid, digital is booming, and international markets are pulling their weight. The question is whether this is just a blip or the start of something more meaningful. For now, analysts are betting on the former.

COST Price Action: Costco Wholesale shares were down 3.26% at $892.21 at the time of publication on Thursday.