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Why Nobody Seems to Care About Waterdrop's Impressive Turnaround

MarketDash Editorial Team
3 days ago
Waterdrop Inc. posted 38% revenue growth and is poised to end three years of declines, but its shares barely moved. The insurance broker is pivoting to technical services and AI solutions while navigating China's increasingly restrictive regulatory environment.

Here's a puzzle: What happens when a company posts explosive growth numbers in a tough market, but nobody seems to notice? That's the strange situation playing out with Waterdrop Inc. (WDH), the Chinese insurance broker whose recent earnings report should have turned heads but instead barely nudged its stock price.

The company reported some genuinely impressive numbers in its latest financial results, with revenue jumping 38.4% in the third quarter. The shares rose slightly the day after, then gave back those gains the next day, leaving investors essentially where they started. If a tree falls in the forest and no one hears it, does it make a sound? In Waterdrop's case, the answer appears to be no.

Feeling the regulatory heat

To understand what's happening here, you need to understand the kitchen Waterdrop is cooking in. The insurance brokerage business in China is getting seriously uncomfortable. Beijing keeps rolling out new regulations that limit how much profit middlemen can extract from insurance transactions. If you're an insurance broker, that's your entire business model under pressure.

Waterdrop's response has been clever: pivot to services that help insurance companies themselves run more efficiently. Think risk assessment tools, customer relationship management, complaint handling systems. This business looks more lucrative and faces a key advantage: it's less likely to attract regulatory scrutiny. Why? Because most Chinese insurance companies are state-owned, and many are currently struggling as China's economy slows. Beijing isn't going to crack down on companies helping state-owned enterprises improve their operations.

The company is also mining its extensive health insurance databases to help pharmaceutical companies identify patients for clinical trials. That's another business line unlikely to face government interference. And like seemingly everyone else these days, Waterdrop is leaning heavily into AI for underwriting, risk analysis, and customer service.

"In the third quarter, AI served as the core driver for enhancing business quality and efficiency, propelling the company to achieve double-digit high growth in both revenue and profit," said Chairman Shen Peng. He added that the company plans to capitalize on "technological opportunities by deepening AI integration and driving innovation across our business ecosystem."

Maybe that's part of the problem. Investors have heard a lot of AI talk lately, and some fatigue might be setting in. But the numbers behind Waterdrop's transformation are real.

The numbers tell a different story

That 38.4% revenue growth brought Waterdrop to 974.9 million yuan ($138 million) for the quarter, up from 704.1 million yuan a year earlier. For context, consider the competition: Zhongan (6060.HK), a leading private insurer, reported flat revenue in the first half of this year. Shouhui (2621.HK), another private insurance broker, saw revenue fall 21% during the same period.

Waterdrop knows all about falling revenue. The company watched its top line shrink steadily from 3.2 billion yuan in 2021 to 2.8 billion yuan in 2024. But this year looks different. Through the first nine months, revenue hit 2.57 billion yuan, up 24% from 2.08 billion yuan in the same period last year. After three consecutive years of declines, growth is back.

A new engine emerges

Waterdrop operates two main businesses: insurance and crowdfunding. The crowdfunding segment helps people without formal insurance policies pay for expensive medical treatments. It's large in scale but generates modest revenue, likely because charging big fees to suffering people would create terrible optics. Crowdfunding brought in 65.7 million yuan in Q3, essentially flat from 65.8 million yuan a year earlier.

The insurance business is where the action is, generating 869.7 million yuan in the third quarter, up 44.8% year-over-year from 600.7 million yuan. That's nearly 90% of total revenue.

Within insurance, the traditional brokerage business grew a respectable 14% year-over-year, with first-year premiums up 32.3% from the previous quarter. Waterdrop credits upgrades to its data infrastructure and real-time customer evaluation capabilities for improving underwriting efficiency.

But the real star is technical services. This segment provides tools that help insurers improve risk assessment, customer relations management, and complaint handling. Revenue from technical services exploded nearly 20-fold to 196.4 million yuan in Q3 from just 10.2 million yuan a year earlier. It now accounts for 22.6% of total company revenue. That's not a typo: a business line that barely existed last year now supplies nearly a quarter of revenue.

Another potential growth driver is digital clinical trial solutions, where Waterdrop helps pharmaceutical companies find patients for clinical trials. This segment posted 31.9 million yuan in revenue, up 31% year-over-year. Given China's increasingly crowded field of drug developers all competing for clinical trial participants, this could become a meaningful business.

The bottom line improves even faster

Operating costs and expenses rose 27.1% during the quarter, considerably slower than the 38.4% revenue growth. That operating leverage helped fuel a 330% jump in operating profit to 113.8 million yuan. Net profit rose a healthy 60% year-over-year to 158.5 million yuan, marking the company's 15th consecutive quarterly profit.

So why the muted market reaction? Investors haven't completely ignored Waterdrop's improving prospects. The stock is up 54% this year, though that's fairly typical for Chinese tech stocks in 2024. At a price-to-sales ratio of 1.52, Waterdrop trades at a premium to Shouhui's 0.64 and Zhongan's 0.59, suggesting investors do value its lower regulatory risk and reduced exposure to China's economic slowdown.

An image problem?

The challenge for Waterdrop might be perception. Many investors still see it as an insurance broker operating in a difficult, heavily regulated market. That's yesterday's story. The company is rapidly transforming into a technology services provider for insurance companies, with a side business helping pharmaceutical companies run clinical trials.

If Waterdrop can successfully shift that narrative from "struggling middleman" to "high-growth tech services provider," there could be meaningful upside ahead. The third quarter results show the transformation is well underway. Now the company just needs investors to notice. Sometimes making noise isn't enough – you need people willing to listen.

Back to News

Why Nobody Seems to Care About Waterdrop's Impressive Turnaround

MarketDash Editorial Team
3 days ago
Waterdrop Inc. posted 38% revenue growth and is poised to end three years of declines, but its shares barely moved. The insurance broker is pivoting to technical services and AI solutions while navigating China's increasingly restrictive regulatory environment.

Here's a puzzle: What happens when a company posts explosive growth numbers in a tough market, but nobody seems to notice? That's the strange situation playing out with Waterdrop Inc. (WDH), the Chinese insurance broker whose recent earnings report should have turned heads but instead barely nudged its stock price.

The company reported some genuinely impressive numbers in its latest financial results, with revenue jumping 38.4% in the third quarter. The shares rose slightly the day after, then gave back those gains the next day, leaving investors essentially where they started. If a tree falls in the forest and no one hears it, does it make a sound? In Waterdrop's case, the answer appears to be no.

Feeling the regulatory heat

To understand what's happening here, you need to understand the kitchen Waterdrop is cooking in. The insurance brokerage business in China is getting seriously uncomfortable. Beijing keeps rolling out new regulations that limit how much profit middlemen can extract from insurance transactions. If you're an insurance broker, that's your entire business model under pressure.

Waterdrop's response has been clever: pivot to services that help insurance companies themselves run more efficiently. Think risk assessment tools, customer relationship management, complaint handling systems. This business looks more lucrative and faces a key advantage: it's less likely to attract regulatory scrutiny. Why? Because most Chinese insurance companies are state-owned, and many are currently struggling as China's economy slows. Beijing isn't going to crack down on companies helping state-owned enterprises improve their operations.

The company is also mining its extensive health insurance databases to help pharmaceutical companies identify patients for clinical trials. That's another business line unlikely to face government interference. And like seemingly everyone else these days, Waterdrop is leaning heavily into AI for underwriting, risk analysis, and customer service.

"In the third quarter, AI served as the core driver for enhancing business quality and efficiency, propelling the company to achieve double-digit high growth in both revenue and profit," said Chairman Shen Peng. He added that the company plans to capitalize on "technological opportunities by deepening AI integration and driving innovation across our business ecosystem."

Maybe that's part of the problem. Investors have heard a lot of AI talk lately, and some fatigue might be setting in. But the numbers behind Waterdrop's transformation are real.

The numbers tell a different story

That 38.4% revenue growth brought Waterdrop to 974.9 million yuan ($138 million) for the quarter, up from 704.1 million yuan a year earlier. For context, consider the competition: Zhongan (6060.HK), a leading private insurer, reported flat revenue in the first half of this year. Shouhui (2621.HK), another private insurance broker, saw revenue fall 21% during the same period.

Waterdrop knows all about falling revenue. The company watched its top line shrink steadily from 3.2 billion yuan in 2021 to 2.8 billion yuan in 2024. But this year looks different. Through the first nine months, revenue hit 2.57 billion yuan, up 24% from 2.08 billion yuan in the same period last year. After three consecutive years of declines, growth is back.

A new engine emerges

Waterdrop operates two main businesses: insurance and crowdfunding. The crowdfunding segment helps people without formal insurance policies pay for expensive medical treatments. It's large in scale but generates modest revenue, likely because charging big fees to suffering people would create terrible optics. Crowdfunding brought in 65.7 million yuan in Q3, essentially flat from 65.8 million yuan a year earlier.

The insurance business is where the action is, generating 869.7 million yuan in the third quarter, up 44.8% year-over-year from 600.7 million yuan. That's nearly 90% of total revenue.

Within insurance, the traditional brokerage business grew a respectable 14% year-over-year, with first-year premiums up 32.3% from the previous quarter. Waterdrop credits upgrades to its data infrastructure and real-time customer evaluation capabilities for improving underwriting efficiency.

But the real star is technical services. This segment provides tools that help insurers improve risk assessment, customer relations management, and complaint handling. Revenue from technical services exploded nearly 20-fold to 196.4 million yuan in Q3 from just 10.2 million yuan a year earlier. It now accounts for 22.6% of total company revenue. That's not a typo: a business line that barely existed last year now supplies nearly a quarter of revenue.

Another potential growth driver is digital clinical trial solutions, where Waterdrop helps pharmaceutical companies find patients for clinical trials. This segment posted 31.9 million yuan in revenue, up 31% year-over-year. Given China's increasingly crowded field of drug developers all competing for clinical trial participants, this could become a meaningful business.

The bottom line improves even faster

Operating costs and expenses rose 27.1% during the quarter, considerably slower than the 38.4% revenue growth. That operating leverage helped fuel a 330% jump in operating profit to 113.8 million yuan. Net profit rose a healthy 60% year-over-year to 158.5 million yuan, marking the company's 15th consecutive quarterly profit.

So why the muted market reaction? Investors haven't completely ignored Waterdrop's improving prospects. The stock is up 54% this year, though that's fairly typical for Chinese tech stocks in 2024. At a price-to-sales ratio of 1.52, Waterdrop trades at a premium to Shouhui's 0.64 and Zhongan's 0.59, suggesting investors do value its lower regulatory risk and reduced exposure to China's economic slowdown.

An image problem?

The challenge for Waterdrop might be perception. Many investors still see it as an insurance broker operating in a difficult, heavily regulated market. That's yesterday's story. The company is rapidly transforming into a technology services provider for insurance companies, with a side business helping pharmaceutical companies run clinical trials.

If Waterdrop can successfully shift that narrative from "struggling middleman" to "high-growth tech services provider," there could be meaningful upside ahead. The third quarter results show the transformation is well underway. Now the company just needs investors to notice. Sometimes making noise isn't enough – you need people willing to listen.