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Home Depot Faces Critical Test as Wall Street Hunts for Signs the Earnings Slump Is Over

MarketDash Editorial Team
2 days ago
Home Depot heads into its December investor day with Wall Street watching closely for proof that its multi-year earnings decline has finally hit bottom, as analysts anticipate modest guidance and continued industry headwinds.

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is walking into next week's investor day with something to prove. After years of watching earnings stagnate or slide, Wall Street wants evidence that the home improvement giant has finally hit bottom and is ready to turn things around.

The stakes are high for the December 12 event in New York, where investors will be scrutinizing fresh 2026 guidance and looking for signs that heavy spending on professional contractors and ongoing margin pressure are about to pay off.

What the Analysts Expect

JP Morgan analyst Christopher Horvers sees the conference as a potential inflection point—a moment where the retailer can break free from its multi-year cycle of disappointing earnings revisions and rebuild investor confidence.

For 2026, Horvers anticipates modest improvement in underlying industry demand, driven by historically low existing home sales growth, current mortgage rates, incremental replacement demand, and slight inflationary tailwinds. But modest is the operative word here.

The analyst expects Home Depot to guide for approximately 1% comparable sales growth, falling short of the Street's 2% expectation. That would translate to earnings per share in the $14.75 to $15.00 range, compared to Wall Street's consensus of $15.51.

Horvers' own estimates sit at 2.2% U.S. same-store sales and $15.46 in EPS, factoring in a 3% leverage point, 11 cents of EPS accretion from the GMS acquisition, and a 10-basis-point operating margin headwind.

Looking Beyond 2026

Longer term, Horvers expects the company to stick with the framework it outlined at its 2023 analyst day: 3% to 4% top-line growth, stable gross margins, and margin expansion fueling mid-to-high single-digit EPS growth.

Some observers think Home Depot should raise those projections given its investments in the professional contractor segment and recent acquisitions. Horvers disagrees, pointing to lingering uncertainties around consumer spending, interest rates, and potential tariff impacts.

HD Price Action: Home Depot shares traded up 0.92% at $354.39 at the time of publication on Friday.

Back to News

Home Depot Faces Critical Test as Wall Street Hunts for Signs the Earnings Slump Is Over

MarketDash Editorial Team
2 days ago
Home Depot heads into its December investor day with Wall Street watching closely for proof that its multi-year earnings decline has finally hit bottom, as analysts anticipate modest guidance and continued industry headwinds.

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is walking into next week's investor day with something to prove. After years of watching earnings stagnate or slide, Wall Street wants evidence that the home improvement giant has finally hit bottom and is ready to turn things around.

The stakes are high for the December 12 event in New York, where investors will be scrutinizing fresh 2026 guidance and looking for signs that heavy spending on professional contractors and ongoing margin pressure are about to pay off.

What the Analysts Expect

JP Morgan analyst Christopher Horvers sees the conference as a potential inflection point—a moment where the retailer can break free from its multi-year cycle of disappointing earnings revisions and rebuild investor confidence.

For 2026, Horvers anticipates modest improvement in underlying industry demand, driven by historically low existing home sales growth, current mortgage rates, incremental replacement demand, and slight inflationary tailwinds. But modest is the operative word here.

The analyst expects Home Depot to guide for approximately 1% comparable sales growth, falling short of the Street's 2% expectation. That would translate to earnings per share in the $14.75 to $15.00 range, compared to Wall Street's consensus of $15.51.

Horvers' own estimates sit at 2.2% U.S. same-store sales and $15.46 in EPS, factoring in a 3% leverage point, 11 cents of EPS accretion from the GMS acquisition, and a 10-basis-point operating margin headwind.

Looking Beyond 2026

Longer term, Horvers expects the company to stick with the framework it outlined at its 2023 analyst day: 3% to 4% top-line growth, stable gross margins, and margin expansion fueling mid-to-high single-digit EPS growth.

Some observers think Home Depot should raise those projections given its investments in the professional contractor segment and recent acquisitions. Horvers disagrees, pointing to lingering uncertainties around consumer spending, interest rates, and potential tariff impacts.

HD Price Action: Home Depot shares traded up 0.92% at $354.39 at the time of publication on Friday.

    Home Depot Faces Critical Test as Wall Street Hunts for Signs the Earnings Slump Is Over - MarketDash News