When Elon Musk talks about the future, he doesn't exactly think small. The Tesla Inc. (TSLA) and SpaceX CEO has doubled down on his vision for orbital datacenters, and this time he's throwing in lunar factories and electromagnetic launchers for good measure.
Space Computing Economics
The conversation started when ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood shared an open-source valuation model predicting SpaceX could hit $2.5 trillion by 2030. Musk responded by suggesting there's another piece of the puzzle people aren't considering: satellites equipped with localized AI compute capabilities.
According to Musk, these AI satellites beaming data from orbit "will be the lowest cost way to generate AI bitstreams in less than three years." His reasoning? Earth is running out of easy sources of electrical power, making space-based computing the fastest way to scale AI operations within four years.
The Megaton Math
Musk laid out some specific numbers that sound straight out of science fiction. "1 megaton/year of satellites with 100kW per satellite yields 100GW of AI added per year with no operating or maintenance cost," he explained. These satellites would connect via high-bandwidth lasers to the existing Starlink constellation, creating a massive orbital computing network.
But here's where it gets really interesting: Musk envisions building satellite factories directly on the Moon. Instead of using rockets to launch these AI satellites into space, he's talking about a "mass driver," a conceptual electromagnetic propulsion system that uses magnetic levitation to accelerate payloads. This would enable "non-trivial progress towards becoming a Kardashev II civilization," referencing the theoretical scale measuring a civilization's energy consumption capabilities.
Following The Money
The timing is notable given the IPO speculation swirling around SpaceX. Musk hinted at a potential public listing during Tesla's investor meeting last month, following reports that SpaceX is targeting an $800 billion valuation for a possible listing next year.
Musk also pushed back against critics claiming SpaceX is propped up by government contracts. He pointed out that NASA represents less than 5% of SpaceX's total revenue, with Starlink serving as the primary revenue driver instead.
Starlink's Expanding Footprint
That revenue story is getting more interesting. Starlink recently filed a trademark application with the USPTO that could signal plans to become a cell carrier, alongside major deals with EchoStar Corp (SATS), Ukrainian telecom giant Kyivstar Group Ltd. (KYIV), and T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) to offer Starlink services to American customers.
Whether Musk's lunar factory vision materializes or remains in the realm of ambitious speculation, it's clear he's thinking about SpaceX's valuation in terms that go far beyond launching satellites the old-fashioned way.