Back in Business After Burning the Boats

Coinbase Inc. (COIN) is making another run at India, reopening its app for registrations more than two years after it shut down operations and told users to pack up and leave. This wasn't a quiet retreat—regional head John O'Loghlen described the 2023 exit as "burning the boats," a deliberate move to reset the company's relationship with Indian regulators even though it meant losing millions of accounts.

Speaking at India Blockchain Week, O'Loghlen outlined the company's path forward. Users can now access cryptocurrency trading pairs, and Coinbase is working to restore full functionality. The big milestone on the horizon? A fiat on-ramp scheduled for 2026 that would let Indian users deposit rupees and buy crypto directly through the platform.

Coinbase first entered India in 2022 but hit a wall almost immediately. The National Payments Corporation of India refused to recognize the company's integration with the Unified Payments Interface network, effectively cutting off a key piece of infrastructure. Rather than limp along in limbo, Coinbase eventually pulled the plug entirely, off-boarding users and closing shop. The company later registered with the Financial Intelligence Unit this year, which cleared the way to restart onboarding in October and now expand access more broadly.

India's Tax Structure Makes Crypto Trading Painful

India isn't exactly rolling out the welcome mat for crypto traders. The country imposes a 30% tax on cryptocurrency income, including gains from Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), with no ability to offset losses. On top of that, there's a 1% tax deducted at source on every single trade—meaning every time you buy or sell, the government takes a slice before you even see the transaction complete.

Market participants say this structure kills liquidity and discourages active trading, especially for newcomers who might otherwise experiment with smaller positions. O'Loghlen acknowledged the challenge and said he hopes regulators will ease the burden to encourage both participation and long-term holding.

Despite the headwinds, Coinbase is doubling down on India. The company's venture arm invested in local exchange CoinDCX at a $2.45 billion valuation, and Coinbase plans to expand its workforce beyond the current 500-plus employees by hiring for both global and domestic roles. It's a bet that the regulatory environment will improve and that India's massive population represents a long-term opportunity worth the patience.

Technical Picture Remains Ugly for COIN Stock

While Coinbase rebuilds in India, its stock is fighting a different battle. COIN closed last week at $269.73, down 1.58%, after failing to break above short-term resistance on the daily chart. Pre-market trading on Monday pushed shares up to $276.24, a gain of 2.41%, but traders noted that pre-market enthusiasm has repeatedly faded once full trading volume kicks in.

The stock remains below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, which are stacked above the price in textbook bearish fashion. COIN has been trapped inside a broad descending structure that has rejected every rally attempt since July, and the weight of that pattern is starting to show.

Support at $260 Is the Line in the Sand

Short-term support sits near $260–265, an area that buyers have defended multiple times in recent weeks. If that level breaks, the next logical target is $236, which sparked the last confirmed bounce and could act as a magnet if selling pressure intensifies.

To flip the script and change sentiment, COIN would need to reclaim $300 and close above $306, which aligns with the 200-day moving average. That's a tall order given the current structure. Without that kind of decisive move higher, rallies are more likely to be sold into rather than sustained.

For now, the stock is stuck in a downtrend, and traders are watching the $260 level closely. A breakdown there would confirm the bears are still in control, while a hold and reversal could buy some time for bulls to regroup. Either way, the next move from this support zone will likely set the tone for the weeks ahead.