Chevron Corp (CVX) is getting a haircut from Wall Street, and it's not a small trim. JPMorgan analyst Arun Jayaram has revised his estimates for the oil giant following last week's 2026 budget announcement and some less-than-cheerful oil price trends.

The Budget News

There's actually a silver lining here. Chevron's official 2026 capex guidance came in better than expected, Jayaram noted. The company set an organic capital expenditure budget of $18-19 billion for 2026, which lands about $1 billion (or 5%) below the midpoint of its long-term capex guidance range of $18-21 billion that it shared at its recent investor day.

The Earnings Cuts

Here's where things get painful. Jayaram slashed his earnings estimates for 2025 from $7.61 per share down to $7.22 per share. But the 2026 forecast took the real beating, dropping from $8.65 per share all the way to $5.78 per share. That's a 33% haircut.

The culprit? Lower oil and gas price assumptions. The revised estimates reflect oil prices of $65.11 per barrel for 2025 and $57.72 per barrel for 2026, down from the previous outlook of $66.20 and $63.12 per barrel, respectively. Natural gas prices are now pegged at $3.50 per Mcf for 2025 and $4.18 per Mcf for 2026, compared to the prior forecast of $3.37 and $3.86 per Mcf.

Shares of Chevron were down 0.43% to $149.31 on Monday.