Marvell Technology Inc. (MRVL) had a rough Monday, with shares tanking more than 9% on worries that the chipmaker lost out on a significant piece of business with Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN). But here's where it gets interesting: not everyone believes the damage is done.

The Downgrade Story

Benchmark analyst Cody Acree made waves by downgrading Marvell from Buy to Hold and pulling his price target entirely. After industry meetings in Silicon Valley, Acree said he now has "a high degree of conviction" that Marvell lost both Amazon's Tranium 3 and 4 designs to Taiwanese competitor Alchip. That would explain why Marvell is projecting relatively modest XPU growth of just 20% in 2026.

Here's the nuance though: Acree noted that while Marvell's guidance for increasing annual Amazon revenue might still be accurate, it's probably driven by continued Tranium 2 volumes rather than new Tranium 3 designs. Since the liquid-cooled variant of Tranium 3 may not arrive until mid-2026, "we expect 2026 Tranium 2 volumes to continue to support Marvell's near-term forecasts," he wrote.

The Pushback

JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur isn't buying the doom narrative. He maintained his Overweight rating and addressed what he called recent "noise" around Marvell's custom AI XPU engagements with Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Amazon.

"Based on our very recent and extensive primary research efforts, Marvell's recent earnings call, and Marvell's June Custom AI analyst day, we believe that Marvell's ASIC programs at Microsoft and AWS are progressing well, and that there has been no asic program share loss at either Microsoft or AWS on current or next generation ai xpu asic programs," Sur wrote.

So who's right? The market seemed to side with Benchmark on Monday, sending shares down 9.30% to $89.72. But with such starkly different takes from major analysts, this story is far from over.