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Silver's Rally Creates a Physical Supply Puzzle for ETF Issuers

MarketDash Editorial Team
4 hours ago
Silver prices hover near record highs while inventories shrink globally. Last week brought the biggest wave of ETF inflows since July, forcing fund managers to hunt for nearly 590 tons of increasingly scarce metal.

Silver steadied around $58.50 an ounce in Asian trading Monday, barely catching its breath after touching an all-time high last week. Traders are watching the Federal Reserve closely, with rate cuts widely expected to add fuel to a market already running hot.

The metal has more than doubled in value this year, crushing gold's 60% surge. Behind the rally: inventories shrinking in London and China, steady industrial demand, and lingering chaos from a short squeeze that rattled the market. One-month lease rates in London are hovering near 6%, a clear signal that physical silver is hard to come by. Shanghai stockpiles, meanwhile, have dropped to their lowest levels in a decade.

Retail traders have jumped in with both feet. Silver's 14-day RSI kept punching through overbought territory last week, and CME data shows micro futures and options volumes climbing as speculators bet on bigger swings ahead, according to Bloomberg.

ETF Demand Meets Supply Reality

Here's where it gets interesting. Silver-backed ETFs just logged their strongest week of inflows since July, pulling in almost 590 tons of metal, per Bloomberg. Investors are piling into physically-backed funds like iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR), forcing issuers to buy actual metal at exactly the moment when it's unusually expensive and scarce. SLV saw roughly $572 million flow in, while SIVR attracted $69 million, according to VettaFi data.

The scale of these inflows means ETFs designed to passively track the market are now actively tightening supply. High borrowing costs, thin inventories, and supply chain stress raise the stakes for fund managers trying to keep pace with creation demand. If ETF buying accelerates ahead of the Fed meeting, tracking issues could emerge. Leveraged products like ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) could see especially wild swings in the coming days.

With physical silver getting harder to source, some investors are pivoting to miners. The Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) captured more than $88 million in inflows last week as traders looked for exposure that doesn't require vault storage or navigating tight metal markets. For anyone worried that ETF sourcing might hit a wall, mining stocks offer a way to stay in the rally without betting on physical delivery.

The broader move reflects a flight to hard assets as rate cuts loom. If the Fed delivers the quarter-point cut that swap markets are pricing in, silver could catch another tailwind. ETF issuers, meanwhile, may find that record demand comes with a logistical headache wrapped in a very shiny package.

Back to News

Silver's Rally Creates a Physical Supply Puzzle for ETF Issuers

MarketDash Editorial Team
4 hours ago
Silver prices hover near record highs while inventories shrink globally. Last week brought the biggest wave of ETF inflows since July, forcing fund managers to hunt for nearly 590 tons of increasingly scarce metal.

Silver steadied around $58.50 an ounce in Asian trading Monday, barely catching its breath after touching an all-time high last week. Traders are watching the Federal Reserve closely, with rate cuts widely expected to add fuel to a market already running hot.

The metal has more than doubled in value this year, crushing gold's 60% surge. Behind the rally: inventories shrinking in London and China, steady industrial demand, and lingering chaos from a short squeeze that rattled the market. One-month lease rates in London are hovering near 6%, a clear signal that physical silver is hard to come by. Shanghai stockpiles, meanwhile, have dropped to their lowest levels in a decade.

Retail traders have jumped in with both feet. Silver's 14-day RSI kept punching through overbought territory last week, and CME data shows micro futures and options volumes climbing as speculators bet on bigger swings ahead, according to Bloomberg.

ETF Demand Meets Supply Reality

Here's where it gets interesting. Silver-backed ETFs just logged their strongest week of inflows since July, pulling in almost 590 tons of metal, per Bloomberg. Investors are piling into physically-backed funds like iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR), forcing issuers to buy actual metal at exactly the moment when it's unusually expensive and scarce. SLV saw roughly $572 million flow in, while SIVR attracted $69 million, according to VettaFi data.

The scale of these inflows means ETFs designed to passively track the market are now actively tightening supply. High borrowing costs, thin inventories, and supply chain stress raise the stakes for fund managers trying to keep pace with creation demand. If ETF buying accelerates ahead of the Fed meeting, tracking issues could emerge. Leveraged products like ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) could see especially wild swings in the coming days.

With physical silver getting harder to source, some investors are pivoting to miners. The Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) captured more than $88 million in inflows last week as traders looked for exposure that doesn't require vault storage or navigating tight metal markets. For anyone worried that ETF sourcing might hit a wall, mining stocks offer a way to stay in the rally without betting on physical delivery.

The broader move reflects a flight to hard assets as rate cuts loom. If the Fed delivers the quarter-point cut that swap markets are pricing in, silver could catch another tailwind. ETF issuers, meanwhile, may find that record demand comes with a logistical headache wrapped in a very shiny package.