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The Unsexy Investment Strategy That Crushes the Market by 6% Annually

MarketDash Editorial Team
8 hours ago
Wall Street wants to sell you complicated strategies, but the most powerful combination in equity investing sits right in front of you: companies that generate massive free cash flow and actually share it through dividends.

Wall Street loves complexity. They'll sell you exotic strategies, derivatives that require advanced degrees to understand, and algorithmic systems that sound impressive at dinner parties. Meanwhile, one of the most powerful approaches to building wealth sits right there in plain sight: buy companies that generate mountains of free cash flow and actually return it to shareholders through dividends.

This isn't theory or hopeful thinking. This is documented reality backed by more than 30 years of data across multiple market cycles. The numbers are so compelling that it's genuinely surprising more investors don't structure their entire approach around this straightforward principle.

When Two Metrics Become Greater Than Their Parts

Let's start with what the research actually shows. From 1990 through 2016, investors who bought stocks ranking in the top quintile for both dividend yield and free cash flow yield generated an annual excess return of 6.03% versus the market. That number alone should grab your attention. But it gets more interesting when you compare this combined approach to using either metric independently.

Stocks with high dividend yields but without the free cash flow screen produced a measly 0.10% excess return. Essentially nothing. High free cash flow yield stocks without the dividend requirement did better at 3.57% excess return, but still fell significantly short of the combined approach. The whole here is genuinely greater than the sum of the parts, and by a meaningful margin.

Think about this in practical terms. A $100,000 portfolio earning that 6% annual outperformance compounds to an extra $540,000 over 25 years compared to the market return. That's real wealth creation from a strategy so straightforward that anyone could understand it: buy companies that generate lots of cash and pay you while you wait.

Why Each Metric Needs the Other

The elegance of requiring both high free cash flow yield and dividends is that each metric addresses the weakness of the other. High dividend yield stocks without cash flow backing are traps waiting to spring. Investors get slaughtered chasing fat dividend yields on companies that can't actually afford to pay them. General Electric stands as the cautionary tale for this mistake. In 2016, GE sported an attractive 3% to 4% dividend yield backed by decades of dividend history. Investors felt safe. They shouldn't have.

The free cash flow told a completely different story. GE's operating cash flow relative to EBITDA had deteriorated from 78% to 52%. The company was generating near zero or negative free cash flow while maintaining its dividend. Any investor who bothered to look at the cash flow statement could see the train wreck coming. The dividend got cut by 96% in 2018, and the stock collapsed by 75%.

Free cash flow doesn't lie. Accountants can smooth earnings, adjust EBITDA, and play games with accruals. But cash is cash. Either it shows up in the bank account or it doesn't. When a company pays a dividend out of free cash flow, management proves every quarter that the cash generation is real.

The Management Quality Filter

Requiring dividends from your high free cash flow stocks serves another critical function: it screens for management quality and capital allocation discipline. Companies that generate strong free cash flow but refuse to pay dividends often waste that cash on empire building acquisitions or vanity projects that destroy shareholder value.

The data backs this up clearly. Within the universe of high free cash flow yield stocks, dividend payers demonstrated superior characteristics across the board. They carried less leverage, with average net debt to EBITDA of 1.2 times versus 2.1 times for non-payers. They generated higher returns on equity: 18% median versus 12%. They exhibited 15% to 20% less volatility in their stock prices.

Most importantly, they recovered faster from market drawdowns. During bear markets from 1990 through 2024, high free cash flow dividend payers recovered from losses in an average of 15 months. Non-payers took 28 months. When the market goes south, and it will eventually, you want to own stocks that bounce back quickly.

The Sweet Spot for Payout Ratios

Not all dividend payers are created equal, and this is where the free cash flow screen becomes essential. The research shows that the optimal payout ratio hovers around 40% to 50% of free cash flow. This range provides several advantages.

First, it leaves ample room for dividend growth. Companies paying out half their free cash flow as dividends can increase those dividends steadily without straining the balance sheet. The Pacer Cash Cows Index, which focuses on the top 100 companies by free cash flow yield, has delivered dividend growth of 9.2% annually while maintaining that sustainable 42% payout ratio.

Compare that to the S&P 500 High Dividend Index, which sports a 73% payout ratio and has managed only 2.1% annual dividend growth. High payout ratios are warning flags, not comfort blankets. They signal companies stretching to maintain dividends they can't afford.

Second, the 40% to 50% payout ratio provides a margin of safety. When recession hits or the business faces temporary headwinds, companies with conservative payout ratios can maintain dividends through the storm. Companies paying out 70%, 80%, or 90% of free cash flow have no cushion. The dividend gets cut at the first sign of trouble, usually when you need the income most.

The Numbers Across Time and Geography

Let me give you the numbers across different time periods and studies, because the consistency is what makes this compelling.

The S&P study covering December 1990 through June 2017 found that the top quintile combining dividend yield and free cash flow yield outperformed the universe 75% of the time. Even during bear markets, this approach outperformed 50% of the time, providing meaningful downside protection when you most need it.

The European study running from 1999 through 2011 showed the top 20% of stocks by free cash flow yield generating a 248.6% total return over 12 years. The market delivered 30.5%. That's not a typo. The spread was 218 percentage points.

The Pacer Cash Cows Index analysis demonstrated that high free cash flow yield stocks with dividend policies generated the highest total returns while simultaneously showing the strongest earnings growth at 8.7% annually and free cash flow growth at 9.2% annually. You got growth and income together, not the usual tradeoff between the two.

Risk Matters More Than You Think

Raw returns tell only part of the story. What matters for long-term wealth accumulation is risk-adjusted performance. High volatility and deep drawdowns will shake you out of winning strategies before they pay off. This is where the combination of high free cash flow yield and dividends really shines.

The Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk. From 1990 through 2017, dividend paying stocks within the high free cash flow yield universe posted a Sharpe ratio of 0.89. Non-dividend payers managed only 0.74. High free cash flow stocks that also showed dividend growth achieved 0.94, the best of all categories.

Maximum drawdown numbers tell a similar story. Dividend payers suffered a maximum drawdown of 38% during the financial crisis. Non-payers dropped 47%. That 9 percentage point difference might not sound like much, but when your portfolio is down 38% instead of 47%, you're far more likely to stay the course and capture the subsequent recovery.

Recovery time matters even more than drawdown depth. Dividend payers recovered to new highs in 18 months on average after bear market lows. Non-payers took 28 months. That 10-month difference is enormous for your long-term compounding.

Setting Realistic Expectations

This strategy is not a get-rich-quick scheme. It won't double your money in six months. You'll sit through periods, sometimes lasting two or three years, when growth stocks and momentum names make you look foolish for owning boring cash cows.

From 2017 through 2020, high free cash flow yield strategies underperformed for four consecutive years. The FAANG stocks and technology momentum dominated. Interest rates sat near zero, making future growth more valuable than current cash flow. Investors who abandoned the strategy during those years missed the subsequent recovery, when free cash flow stocks roared back in 2021 and 2022.

This strategy requires patience, discipline, and a five to ten year time horizon minimum. If you need your money in two years, this isn't your approach. If you can't stomach seeing your portfolio lag during growth stock manias, find another strategy. But if you can be patient and disciplined, the evidence spanning 70 years across multiple markets suggests you'll be rewarded handsomely.

The Core Principle

The combination of high free cash flow yield and dividends isn't sexy. It will never make you the star of cocktail party conversations about the hottest AI stock or cryptocurrency play. What it will do is compound your wealth steadily, pay you income while you wait, protect your capital during downturns better than most alternatives, and let you sleep at night knowing you own pieces of businesses generating real cash.

After decades of market study and analyzing thousands of stocks, this simple truth keeps surfacing: cash is king, and companies that generate it abundantly and share it generously with shareholders outperform over time. The research proves it. The logic supports it. The question is whether you have the discipline to stick with it when everyone else is chasing the latest fad.

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) – The Agricultural Backbone

Dividend Yield: 3.4%

Free Cash Flow Payout Ratio: 24%

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) is one of the largest agricultural processors and food ingredient providers on the planet. The company has been around since 1902, which tells you something about the staying power of the business model. ADM operates more than 800 facilities worldwide, processing oilseeds, corn, wheat, and other agricultural commodities into products that end up in food, animal feed, industrial applications, and energy.

Think about what ADM does. It sits at the critical junction between farmers and the end users of agricultural products. The company stores grain, transports it, processes it, and merchandises it globally. ADM makes vegetable oils, corn sweeteners, flour, animal feed, and biodiesel. These aren't sexy products. Nobody writes breathless articles about the latest innovation in soybean crushing. But people need to eat every single day, and that reality creates remarkably stable demand for what ADM produces.

The company generates massive free cash flow. With a payout ratio of only 24% of free cash flow, ADM maintains enormous flexibility. That low payout ratio provides a substantial margin of safety. Even if agricultural markets turn sour for a year or two, the dividend looks secure. The company has paid dividends for over 92 consecutive years. That track record didn't happen by accident.

The current dividend yield of 3.3% to 4.4%, depending on when you measure it, reflects both the stability of the business and the market's ongoing skepticism about agricultural commodities. That skepticism creates opportunity for patient investors willing to collect the dividend and wait for the market to recognize the value.

ADM trades cheaply on a free cash flow basis precisely because Wall Street finds agriculture boring. The company faces commodity price volatility and operates in a capital-intensive industry with modest margins. But boring businesses that generate cash often make the best long-term investments.

HNI Corp. (HNI) – Office Furniture and Fireplaces

Dividend Yield: Approximately 3.3%

Payout Ratio: 43% to 45%

HNI Corp. (HNI) operates two distinct businesses under one roof. The Workplace Furnishings segment, which accounts for roughly 75% of revenue, manufactures office furniture under brands including HON, Allsteel, Gunlocke, and Kimball. The Residential Building Products segment, representing the remaining 25% of revenue, produces hearth products including gas, electric, wood, and pellet fireplaces, stoves, and related accessories under brands like Heatilator, Heat & Glo, and Harman.

This combination seems odd at first glance. What does office furniture have to do with fireplaces? The answer is nothing, except that both businesses generate consistent cash flow and operate with similar manufacturing and distribution models. HNI management has run these operations efficiently for decades.

The office furniture business faces ongoing questions about the future of office work. Remote work and hybrid arrangements have changed how companies think about workspace. That uncertainty creates pressure on office furniture demand and keeps the stock price depressed. But offices aren't disappearing. Companies still need desks, chairs, and conference room tables. The business might grow more slowly than in the past, but it remains cash generative.

The hearth products business provides nice diversification. Fireplaces and stoves represent discretionary purchases tied to housing and renovation spending, but the replacement cycle for these products is measured in decades. Once installed, HNI products generate recurring revenue through service, parts, and eventual replacement.

HNI generated $179.9 million in free cash flow over the last twelve months while paying out 43% to 45% of that cash in dividends. The balance sheet shows strength, and management continues to focus on margin expansion. The stock trades at a discount to intrinsic value by any reasonable measure, largely because investors worry about the secular decline in office furniture demand.

That worry may be overdone. Even if office furniture demand remains flat or declines modestly, HNI can maintain its dividend and generate acceptable returns for shareholders through buybacks and debt reduction. The 2.9% dividend yield provides income while you wait for the market to recognize the value.

OneSpan (OSPN) – Digital Security and Authentication

Dividend Yield: 4.03%

Payout Ratio: Under 8%

OneSpan (OSPN) operates in the digital security, authentication, and electronic signature space. The company provides products and services that secure digital banking transactions, enable e-signatures, and protect digital identities. More than 60% of the world's 100 largest banks use OneSpan solutions. The company processes millions of digital agreements and billions of transactions annually across more than 100 countries.

This business model carries significant advantages. Software and security solutions generate high gross margins, typically in the 70% to 90% range. Recurring subscription revenue creates predictability. Switching costs for customers run high because security infrastructure integrates deeply into banking systems. Banks don't change authentication providers on a whim.

OneSpan just initiated its dividend in December 2024, paying $0.12 quarterly or $0.48 annually. The dividend yield is 4.3%. More impressive than the yield is the coverage. OneSpan pays out less than 8% of earnings as dividends. That extraordinarily low payout ratio means the dividend carries minimal risk even if the business faces temporary headwinds.

The company has undergone a strategic transformation over the past several years, shifting from hardware token sales to cloud-based subscription software. This transition created near-term revenue volatility, which depressed the stock price. But the subscription revenue now grows at 29% year over year, and the annual recurring revenue base continues to expand. Operating margins have improved dramatically as the company completes its cost reduction initiatives.

OneSpan generates strong free cash flow, delivers it back to shareholders through the new dividend program, and maintains flexibility for additional capital allocation including share repurchases and dividend increases. The stock trades cheaply on a free cash flow basis because investors remain skeptical about the company's ability to accelerate revenue growth in its core banking market.

That skepticism creates opportunity. The banking industry continues to digitize, cyber threats multiply, and regulatory requirements for secure authentication intensify. OneSpan sits at the intersection of all three trends. The new dividend signals management confidence in the business trajectory and commitment to returning cash to shareholders.

Luxfer Holdings (LXFR) – Specialty Materials and Gas Cylinders

Dividend Yield: Approximately 4.3%

Payout Ratio: 43%

Luxfer Holdings (LXFR) specializes in high-performance materials and gas containment devices. The company operates through three segments. The Gas Cylinders segment manufactures specialized aluminum and composite cylinders for breathing apparatus used by firefighters, medical oxygen storage, alternative fuel vehicles, and industrial applications. The Elektron segment produces advanced magnesium alloys, magnesium powders for military countermeasure flares, and zirconium-based materials used as catalysts and in advanced ceramics. The Graphic Arts segment, currently being divested, provides metal plates for foil stamping and embossing.

Luxfer traces its history back to 1898, which demonstrates the durability of demand for its specialty products. The company sells into defense, healthcare, emergency response, and industrial end markets. These aren't high-growth markets, but they generate steady demand with limited competition in many niches.

The dividend currently yields 4.3%. The payout ratio of 43% provides reasonable coverage, though some caution is warranted. Luxfer generated negative net income in recent periods due to restructuring charges and the costs of divesting the Graphic Arts business. However, the company continues to produce positive free cash flow, and management expects profitability to improve as these one-time costs roll off.

The sale of the Graphic Arts business represents a strategic move to focus on the higher-margin Gas Cylinders and Elektron segments. That business faced secular headwinds from digital printing and represented a drag on overall profitability. Removing it should improve the company's financial profile.

Luxfer trades at depressed multiples because investors see a small industrial company with lumpy earnings and cyclical end markets. The defense business provides some stability, but overall growth prospects look modest. That assessment may be too pessimistic. The shift to hydrogen as an alternative fuel creates potential demand for Luxfer's composite cylinders. Medical oxygen demand remains steady. Defense spending continues to grow globally.

The 4.3% dividend yield compensates investors for waiting while management executes on operational improvements. The free cash flow generation supports the dividend even through down cycles, and the payout ratio leaves room for dividend growth as profitability normalizes.

Back to News

The Unsexy Investment Strategy That Crushes the Market by 6% Annually

MarketDash Editorial Team
8 hours ago
Wall Street wants to sell you complicated strategies, but the most powerful combination in equity investing sits right in front of you: companies that generate massive free cash flow and actually share it through dividends.

Wall Street loves complexity. They'll sell you exotic strategies, derivatives that require advanced degrees to understand, and algorithmic systems that sound impressive at dinner parties. Meanwhile, one of the most powerful approaches to building wealth sits right there in plain sight: buy companies that generate mountains of free cash flow and actually return it to shareholders through dividends.

This isn't theory or hopeful thinking. This is documented reality backed by more than 30 years of data across multiple market cycles. The numbers are so compelling that it's genuinely surprising more investors don't structure their entire approach around this straightforward principle.

When Two Metrics Become Greater Than Their Parts

Let's start with what the research actually shows. From 1990 through 2016, investors who bought stocks ranking in the top quintile for both dividend yield and free cash flow yield generated an annual excess return of 6.03% versus the market. That number alone should grab your attention. But it gets more interesting when you compare this combined approach to using either metric independently.

Stocks with high dividend yields but without the free cash flow screen produced a measly 0.10% excess return. Essentially nothing. High free cash flow yield stocks without the dividend requirement did better at 3.57% excess return, but still fell significantly short of the combined approach. The whole here is genuinely greater than the sum of the parts, and by a meaningful margin.

Think about this in practical terms. A $100,000 portfolio earning that 6% annual outperformance compounds to an extra $540,000 over 25 years compared to the market return. That's real wealth creation from a strategy so straightforward that anyone could understand it: buy companies that generate lots of cash and pay you while you wait.

Why Each Metric Needs the Other

The elegance of requiring both high free cash flow yield and dividends is that each metric addresses the weakness of the other. High dividend yield stocks without cash flow backing are traps waiting to spring. Investors get slaughtered chasing fat dividend yields on companies that can't actually afford to pay them. General Electric stands as the cautionary tale for this mistake. In 2016, GE sported an attractive 3% to 4% dividend yield backed by decades of dividend history. Investors felt safe. They shouldn't have.

The free cash flow told a completely different story. GE's operating cash flow relative to EBITDA had deteriorated from 78% to 52%. The company was generating near zero or negative free cash flow while maintaining its dividend. Any investor who bothered to look at the cash flow statement could see the train wreck coming. The dividend got cut by 96% in 2018, and the stock collapsed by 75%.

Free cash flow doesn't lie. Accountants can smooth earnings, adjust EBITDA, and play games with accruals. But cash is cash. Either it shows up in the bank account or it doesn't. When a company pays a dividend out of free cash flow, management proves every quarter that the cash generation is real.

The Management Quality Filter

Requiring dividends from your high free cash flow stocks serves another critical function: it screens for management quality and capital allocation discipline. Companies that generate strong free cash flow but refuse to pay dividends often waste that cash on empire building acquisitions or vanity projects that destroy shareholder value.

The data backs this up clearly. Within the universe of high free cash flow yield stocks, dividend payers demonstrated superior characteristics across the board. They carried less leverage, with average net debt to EBITDA of 1.2 times versus 2.1 times for non-payers. They generated higher returns on equity: 18% median versus 12%. They exhibited 15% to 20% less volatility in their stock prices.

Most importantly, they recovered faster from market drawdowns. During bear markets from 1990 through 2024, high free cash flow dividend payers recovered from losses in an average of 15 months. Non-payers took 28 months. When the market goes south, and it will eventually, you want to own stocks that bounce back quickly.

The Sweet Spot for Payout Ratios

Not all dividend payers are created equal, and this is where the free cash flow screen becomes essential. The research shows that the optimal payout ratio hovers around 40% to 50% of free cash flow. This range provides several advantages.

First, it leaves ample room for dividend growth. Companies paying out half their free cash flow as dividends can increase those dividends steadily without straining the balance sheet. The Pacer Cash Cows Index, which focuses on the top 100 companies by free cash flow yield, has delivered dividend growth of 9.2% annually while maintaining that sustainable 42% payout ratio.

Compare that to the S&P 500 High Dividend Index, which sports a 73% payout ratio and has managed only 2.1% annual dividend growth. High payout ratios are warning flags, not comfort blankets. They signal companies stretching to maintain dividends they can't afford.

Second, the 40% to 50% payout ratio provides a margin of safety. When recession hits or the business faces temporary headwinds, companies with conservative payout ratios can maintain dividends through the storm. Companies paying out 70%, 80%, or 90% of free cash flow have no cushion. The dividend gets cut at the first sign of trouble, usually when you need the income most.

The Numbers Across Time and Geography

Let me give you the numbers across different time periods and studies, because the consistency is what makes this compelling.

The S&P study covering December 1990 through June 2017 found that the top quintile combining dividend yield and free cash flow yield outperformed the universe 75% of the time. Even during bear markets, this approach outperformed 50% of the time, providing meaningful downside protection when you most need it.

The European study running from 1999 through 2011 showed the top 20% of stocks by free cash flow yield generating a 248.6% total return over 12 years. The market delivered 30.5%. That's not a typo. The spread was 218 percentage points.

The Pacer Cash Cows Index analysis demonstrated that high free cash flow yield stocks with dividend policies generated the highest total returns while simultaneously showing the strongest earnings growth at 8.7% annually and free cash flow growth at 9.2% annually. You got growth and income together, not the usual tradeoff between the two.

Risk Matters More Than You Think

Raw returns tell only part of the story. What matters for long-term wealth accumulation is risk-adjusted performance. High volatility and deep drawdowns will shake you out of winning strategies before they pay off. This is where the combination of high free cash flow yield and dividends really shines.

The Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk. From 1990 through 2017, dividend paying stocks within the high free cash flow yield universe posted a Sharpe ratio of 0.89. Non-dividend payers managed only 0.74. High free cash flow stocks that also showed dividend growth achieved 0.94, the best of all categories.

Maximum drawdown numbers tell a similar story. Dividend payers suffered a maximum drawdown of 38% during the financial crisis. Non-payers dropped 47%. That 9 percentage point difference might not sound like much, but when your portfolio is down 38% instead of 47%, you're far more likely to stay the course and capture the subsequent recovery.

Recovery time matters even more than drawdown depth. Dividend payers recovered to new highs in 18 months on average after bear market lows. Non-payers took 28 months. That 10-month difference is enormous for your long-term compounding.

Setting Realistic Expectations

This strategy is not a get-rich-quick scheme. It won't double your money in six months. You'll sit through periods, sometimes lasting two or three years, when growth stocks and momentum names make you look foolish for owning boring cash cows.

From 2017 through 2020, high free cash flow yield strategies underperformed for four consecutive years. The FAANG stocks and technology momentum dominated. Interest rates sat near zero, making future growth more valuable than current cash flow. Investors who abandoned the strategy during those years missed the subsequent recovery, when free cash flow stocks roared back in 2021 and 2022.

This strategy requires patience, discipline, and a five to ten year time horizon minimum. If you need your money in two years, this isn't your approach. If you can't stomach seeing your portfolio lag during growth stock manias, find another strategy. But if you can be patient and disciplined, the evidence spanning 70 years across multiple markets suggests you'll be rewarded handsomely.

The Core Principle

The combination of high free cash flow yield and dividends isn't sexy. It will never make you the star of cocktail party conversations about the hottest AI stock or cryptocurrency play. What it will do is compound your wealth steadily, pay you income while you wait, protect your capital during downturns better than most alternatives, and let you sleep at night knowing you own pieces of businesses generating real cash.

After decades of market study and analyzing thousands of stocks, this simple truth keeps surfacing: cash is king, and companies that generate it abundantly and share it generously with shareholders outperform over time. The research proves it. The logic supports it. The question is whether you have the discipline to stick with it when everyone else is chasing the latest fad.

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) – The Agricultural Backbone

Dividend Yield: 3.4%

Free Cash Flow Payout Ratio: 24%

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) is one of the largest agricultural processors and food ingredient providers on the planet. The company has been around since 1902, which tells you something about the staying power of the business model. ADM operates more than 800 facilities worldwide, processing oilseeds, corn, wheat, and other agricultural commodities into products that end up in food, animal feed, industrial applications, and energy.

Think about what ADM does. It sits at the critical junction between farmers and the end users of agricultural products. The company stores grain, transports it, processes it, and merchandises it globally. ADM makes vegetable oils, corn sweeteners, flour, animal feed, and biodiesel. These aren't sexy products. Nobody writes breathless articles about the latest innovation in soybean crushing. But people need to eat every single day, and that reality creates remarkably stable demand for what ADM produces.

The company generates massive free cash flow. With a payout ratio of only 24% of free cash flow, ADM maintains enormous flexibility. That low payout ratio provides a substantial margin of safety. Even if agricultural markets turn sour for a year or two, the dividend looks secure. The company has paid dividends for over 92 consecutive years. That track record didn't happen by accident.

The current dividend yield of 3.3% to 4.4%, depending on when you measure it, reflects both the stability of the business and the market's ongoing skepticism about agricultural commodities. That skepticism creates opportunity for patient investors willing to collect the dividend and wait for the market to recognize the value.

ADM trades cheaply on a free cash flow basis precisely because Wall Street finds agriculture boring. The company faces commodity price volatility and operates in a capital-intensive industry with modest margins. But boring businesses that generate cash often make the best long-term investments.

HNI Corp. (HNI) – Office Furniture and Fireplaces

Dividend Yield: Approximately 3.3%

Payout Ratio: 43% to 45%

HNI Corp. (HNI) operates two distinct businesses under one roof. The Workplace Furnishings segment, which accounts for roughly 75% of revenue, manufactures office furniture under brands including HON, Allsteel, Gunlocke, and Kimball. The Residential Building Products segment, representing the remaining 25% of revenue, produces hearth products including gas, electric, wood, and pellet fireplaces, stoves, and related accessories under brands like Heatilator, Heat & Glo, and Harman.

This combination seems odd at first glance. What does office furniture have to do with fireplaces? The answer is nothing, except that both businesses generate consistent cash flow and operate with similar manufacturing and distribution models. HNI management has run these operations efficiently for decades.

The office furniture business faces ongoing questions about the future of office work. Remote work and hybrid arrangements have changed how companies think about workspace. That uncertainty creates pressure on office furniture demand and keeps the stock price depressed. But offices aren't disappearing. Companies still need desks, chairs, and conference room tables. The business might grow more slowly than in the past, but it remains cash generative.

The hearth products business provides nice diversification. Fireplaces and stoves represent discretionary purchases tied to housing and renovation spending, but the replacement cycle for these products is measured in decades. Once installed, HNI products generate recurring revenue through service, parts, and eventual replacement.

HNI generated $179.9 million in free cash flow over the last twelve months while paying out 43% to 45% of that cash in dividends. The balance sheet shows strength, and management continues to focus on margin expansion. The stock trades at a discount to intrinsic value by any reasonable measure, largely because investors worry about the secular decline in office furniture demand.

That worry may be overdone. Even if office furniture demand remains flat or declines modestly, HNI can maintain its dividend and generate acceptable returns for shareholders through buybacks and debt reduction. The 2.9% dividend yield provides income while you wait for the market to recognize the value.

OneSpan (OSPN) – Digital Security and Authentication

Dividend Yield: 4.03%

Payout Ratio: Under 8%

OneSpan (OSPN) operates in the digital security, authentication, and electronic signature space. The company provides products and services that secure digital banking transactions, enable e-signatures, and protect digital identities. More than 60% of the world's 100 largest banks use OneSpan solutions. The company processes millions of digital agreements and billions of transactions annually across more than 100 countries.

This business model carries significant advantages. Software and security solutions generate high gross margins, typically in the 70% to 90% range. Recurring subscription revenue creates predictability. Switching costs for customers run high because security infrastructure integrates deeply into banking systems. Banks don't change authentication providers on a whim.

OneSpan just initiated its dividend in December 2024, paying $0.12 quarterly or $0.48 annually. The dividend yield is 4.3%. More impressive than the yield is the coverage. OneSpan pays out less than 8% of earnings as dividends. That extraordinarily low payout ratio means the dividend carries minimal risk even if the business faces temporary headwinds.

The company has undergone a strategic transformation over the past several years, shifting from hardware token sales to cloud-based subscription software. This transition created near-term revenue volatility, which depressed the stock price. But the subscription revenue now grows at 29% year over year, and the annual recurring revenue base continues to expand. Operating margins have improved dramatically as the company completes its cost reduction initiatives.

OneSpan generates strong free cash flow, delivers it back to shareholders through the new dividend program, and maintains flexibility for additional capital allocation including share repurchases and dividend increases. The stock trades cheaply on a free cash flow basis because investors remain skeptical about the company's ability to accelerate revenue growth in its core banking market.

That skepticism creates opportunity. The banking industry continues to digitize, cyber threats multiply, and regulatory requirements for secure authentication intensify. OneSpan sits at the intersection of all three trends. The new dividend signals management confidence in the business trajectory and commitment to returning cash to shareholders.

Luxfer Holdings (LXFR) – Specialty Materials and Gas Cylinders

Dividend Yield: Approximately 4.3%

Payout Ratio: 43%

Luxfer Holdings (LXFR) specializes in high-performance materials and gas containment devices. The company operates through three segments. The Gas Cylinders segment manufactures specialized aluminum and composite cylinders for breathing apparatus used by firefighters, medical oxygen storage, alternative fuel vehicles, and industrial applications. The Elektron segment produces advanced magnesium alloys, magnesium powders for military countermeasure flares, and zirconium-based materials used as catalysts and in advanced ceramics. The Graphic Arts segment, currently being divested, provides metal plates for foil stamping and embossing.

Luxfer traces its history back to 1898, which demonstrates the durability of demand for its specialty products. The company sells into defense, healthcare, emergency response, and industrial end markets. These aren't high-growth markets, but they generate steady demand with limited competition in many niches.

The dividend currently yields 4.3%. The payout ratio of 43% provides reasonable coverage, though some caution is warranted. Luxfer generated negative net income in recent periods due to restructuring charges and the costs of divesting the Graphic Arts business. However, the company continues to produce positive free cash flow, and management expects profitability to improve as these one-time costs roll off.

The sale of the Graphic Arts business represents a strategic move to focus on the higher-margin Gas Cylinders and Elektron segments. That business faced secular headwinds from digital printing and represented a drag on overall profitability. Removing it should improve the company's financial profile.

Luxfer trades at depressed multiples because investors see a small industrial company with lumpy earnings and cyclical end markets. The defense business provides some stability, but overall growth prospects look modest. That assessment may be too pessimistic. The shift to hydrogen as an alternative fuel creates potential demand for Luxfer's composite cylinders. Medical oxygen demand remains steady. Defense spending continues to grow globally.

The 4.3% dividend yield compensates investors for waiting while management executes on operational improvements. The free cash flow generation supports the dividend even through down cycles, and the payout ratio leaves room for dividend growth as profitability normalizes.