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The Magnificent Seven Are Starting to Show Cracks, and China's Trade Numbers Are Staggering

MarketDash Editorial Team
8 hours ago
A revealing chart shows the Mag 7 stocks are lagging the broader market at exactly the wrong time. Meanwhile, China just posted a historic trade surplus despite U.S. tariffs, and this week's Oracle and Broadcom earnings could determine where AI stocks go next.

The Magnificent Seven Problem Nobody Wants to Talk About

If your portfolio looks like everyone else's right now, you probably own a lot of Magnificent Seven stocks. And that's fine, except for one small problem: they're starting to lag the broader market in ways that should make you pay attention.

A comparison chart between the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) tells a story that's worth understanding. During November's market dip, MAGS significantly underperformed SPY. This wasn't just a blip. It's the kind of pattern that shows up right before conventional wisdom gets expensive.

Here's what makes this particularly interesting: the Mag 7 performance would have looked even worse if not for Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) adding roughly a trillion dollars in market value on excitement about its TPU chips. There are several misconceptions floating around about Google's TPU, but that's a different conversation. The point is that one stock carried a lot of weight, and when you need that much help from a single name, you should probably think about what happens when that help doesn't show up.

Most investors hold two beliefs about the Mag 7 right now. First, that these are the safest stocks you can own. Second, that they'll keep rising at the same pace they have recently. History suggests both beliefs are dangerous when held simultaneously by too many people. Every time investors have fallen in love with a favored group of stocks, those stocks eventually faltered, and most people didn't adjust their thinking fast enough to avoid major losses.

The cracks are beginning to appear. Getting ahead of the curve means recognizing this now, not after everyone else figures it out.

This Week's Earnings Could Define the AI Trade

Two earnings reports this week matter more than usual. Oracle Corp (ORCL) reports after the close on December 10th, and Broadcom Inc (AVGO) follows on December 11th. Together with the Fed decision, these will likely determine where AI stocks go in the near term.

Oracle's situation is fascinating in a slightly concerning way. The company has a $350 billion deal with OpenAI and is borrowing heavily to build data centers for it. That's transformed Oracle from a conservative stock into something considerably riskier. If OpenAI can't deliver a new ChatGPT version that surpasses Google's Gemini 3, Oracle might need to scale back its capital spending on those data centers. There are rumors that OpenAI is close to releasing something that could be better than Gemini 3, but rumors and reality have a complicated relationship in tech.

Broadcom is Google's partner for TPUs, which puts them in direct competition with NVIDIA Corp (NVDA). How that partnership is progressing matters quite a bit for anyone trying to figure out which chip companies win the AI infrastructure buildout.

China Just Set a Record That Deserves More Attention

China's trade surplus reached $1.08 trillion for the first 11 months of this year. That's a historic first for any country ever, and they did it while facing significant U.S. tariffs. Think about that for a moment. Now imagine what those numbers might have looked like without the tariffs.

The data demonstrates China's dominance in manufacturing and its ability to redirect trade flows. Exports that would have gone to the United States found other destinations. China's exports to Africa rose 26% this year, to Southeast Asia by 14%, and to Latin America by 7.1%. When one market closes, China appears quite capable of opening others.

The Market's Rate Cut Sensitivity

This market is extraordinarily sensitive to interest rate expectations right now. You can see it clearly in how stocks moved in November. When the probability of a December rate cut fell to 30%, both Mag 7 stocks and SPY dropped. Then New York Fed Governor John Williams said he favored a rate cut in December, and the odds jumped from 30% to 70% in a single day. Stocks surged back immediately.

In early trading Monday, the momentum crowd is buying aggressively on rate cut hopes ahead of the FOMC meeting. That sensitivity cuts both ways, which is something to remember when positioning portfolios.

Money Flows in the Magnificent Seven

Since most portfolios are heavily concentrated in Mag 7 stocks, tracking early money flows in these names matters more than usual.

In early trading, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), and Apple Inc (AAPL).

Money flows are negative in Tesla Inc (TSLA) and Meta Platforms Inc (META).

Money flows are positive in SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).

What This Means for Investors

Proper diversification matters more now than it has in a while. When everyone's portfolio looks the same and those positions start showing relative weakness, having a systematic protection mechanism in place becomes important.

Consider continuing to hold quality long-term positions, but think about protection bands consisting of cash, Treasury bills, or short-term tactical trades combined with hedges. You can't take advantage of new opportunities if you're fully invested when those opportunities appear.

The protection band you choose depends on your situation. Higher cash and hedge levels make sense for older or more conservative investors. Lower bands work for younger or more aggressive ones. A protection band of 0% would indicate full investment with complete bullishness. A band of 100% would suggest aggressive hedging or even short positions for very bearish positioning.

For those following traditional 60/40 portfolio allocation between stocks and bonds, the current environment favors focusing on high-quality bonds with five-year duration or less. Probability-based risk reward adjusted for inflation doesn't favor long-duration strategic bond allocation right now. Those willing to add sophistication might consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions rather than strategic ones.

Other Market Movements

Bitcoin (BTC) is seeing buying in early trading.

Investors looking for an edge can track money flows in SPY and QQQ, and even greater insight comes from knowing when smart money is moving into stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular gold ETF is SPDR Gold Trust, silver is tracked through iShares Silver Trust, and oil through United States Oil ETF.

When positioning portfolios with partial stops on individual stock positions, consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and allowing more room for high-beta stocks that typically move more than the broader market.

Back to News

The Magnificent Seven Are Starting to Show Cracks, and China's Trade Numbers Are Staggering

MarketDash Editorial Team
8 hours ago
A revealing chart shows the Mag 7 stocks are lagging the broader market at exactly the wrong time. Meanwhile, China just posted a historic trade surplus despite U.S. tariffs, and this week's Oracle and Broadcom earnings could determine where AI stocks go next.

The Magnificent Seven Problem Nobody Wants to Talk About

If your portfolio looks like everyone else's right now, you probably own a lot of Magnificent Seven stocks. And that's fine, except for one small problem: they're starting to lag the broader market in ways that should make you pay attention.

A comparison chart between the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) tells a story that's worth understanding. During November's market dip, MAGS significantly underperformed SPY. This wasn't just a blip. It's the kind of pattern that shows up right before conventional wisdom gets expensive.

Here's what makes this particularly interesting: the Mag 7 performance would have looked even worse if not for Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) adding roughly a trillion dollars in market value on excitement about its TPU chips. There are several misconceptions floating around about Google's TPU, but that's a different conversation. The point is that one stock carried a lot of weight, and when you need that much help from a single name, you should probably think about what happens when that help doesn't show up.

Most investors hold two beliefs about the Mag 7 right now. First, that these are the safest stocks you can own. Second, that they'll keep rising at the same pace they have recently. History suggests both beliefs are dangerous when held simultaneously by too many people. Every time investors have fallen in love with a favored group of stocks, those stocks eventually faltered, and most people didn't adjust their thinking fast enough to avoid major losses.

The cracks are beginning to appear. Getting ahead of the curve means recognizing this now, not after everyone else figures it out.

This Week's Earnings Could Define the AI Trade

Two earnings reports this week matter more than usual. Oracle Corp (ORCL) reports after the close on December 10th, and Broadcom Inc (AVGO) follows on December 11th. Together with the Fed decision, these will likely determine where AI stocks go in the near term.

Oracle's situation is fascinating in a slightly concerning way. The company has a $350 billion deal with OpenAI and is borrowing heavily to build data centers for it. That's transformed Oracle from a conservative stock into something considerably riskier. If OpenAI can't deliver a new ChatGPT version that surpasses Google's Gemini 3, Oracle might need to scale back its capital spending on those data centers. There are rumors that OpenAI is close to releasing something that could be better than Gemini 3, but rumors and reality have a complicated relationship in tech.

Broadcom is Google's partner for TPUs, which puts them in direct competition with NVIDIA Corp (NVDA). How that partnership is progressing matters quite a bit for anyone trying to figure out which chip companies win the AI infrastructure buildout.

China Just Set a Record That Deserves More Attention

China's trade surplus reached $1.08 trillion for the first 11 months of this year. That's a historic first for any country ever, and they did it while facing significant U.S. tariffs. Think about that for a moment. Now imagine what those numbers might have looked like without the tariffs.

The data demonstrates China's dominance in manufacturing and its ability to redirect trade flows. Exports that would have gone to the United States found other destinations. China's exports to Africa rose 26% this year, to Southeast Asia by 14%, and to Latin America by 7.1%. When one market closes, China appears quite capable of opening others.

The Market's Rate Cut Sensitivity

This market is extraordinarily sensitive to interest rate expectations right now. You can see it clearly in how stocks moved in November. When the probability of a December rate cut fell to 30%, both Mag 7 stocks and SPY dropped. Then New York Fed Governor John Williams said he favored a rate cut in December, and the odds jumped from 30% to 70% in a single day. Stocks surged back immediately.

In early trading Monday, the momentum crowd is buying aggressively on rate cut hopes ahead of the FOMC meeting. That sensitivity cuts both ways, which is something to remember when positioning portfolios.

Money Flows in the Magnificent Seven

Since most portfolios are heavily concentrated in Mag 7 stocks, tracking early money flows in these names matters more than usual.

In early trading, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), and Apple Inc (AAPL).

Money flows are negative in Tesla Inc (TSLA) and Meta Platforms Inc (META).

Money flows are positive in SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).

What This Means for Investors

Proper diversification matters more now than it has in a while. When everyone's portfolio looks the same and those positions start showing relative weakness, having a systematic protection mechanism in place becomes important.

Consider continuing to hold quality long-term positions, but think about protection bands consisting of cash, Treasury bills, or short-term tactical trades combined with hedges. You can't take advantage of new opportunities if you're fully invested when those opportunities appear.

The protection band you choose depends on your situation. Higher cash and hedge levels make sense for older or more conservative investors. Lower bands work for younger or more aggressive ones. A protection band of 0% would indicate full investment with complete bullishness. A band of 100% would suggest aggressive hedging or even short positions for very bearish positioning.

For those following traditional 60/40 portfolio allocation between stocks and bonds, the current environment favors focusing on high-quality bonds with five-year duration or less. Probability-based risk reward adjusted for inflation doesn't favor long-duration strategic bond allocation right now. Those willing to add sophistication might consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions rather than strategic ones.

Other Market Movements

Bitcoin (BTC) is seeing buying in early trading.

Investors looking for an edge can track money flows in SPY and QQQ, and even greater insight comes from knowing when smart money is moving into stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular gold ETF is SPDR Gold Trust, silver is tracked through iShares Silver Trust, and oil through United States Oil ETF.

When positioning portfolios with partial stops on individual stock positions, consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and allowing more room for high-beta stocks that typically move more than the broader market.

    The Magnificent Seven Are Starting to Show Cracks, and China's Trade Numbers Are Staggering - MarketDash News