It's a big macro week, the kind where the Federal Reserve takes center stage, earnings from tech giants could swing stocks violently, and investors seem to have suddenly remembered that value stocks exist.

The Fed Cut Is Coming, But What Comes After?

The market is treating a rate cut as basically guaranteed at this week's FOMC meeting. The real question is what happens next. A dovish cut, one where Powell signals more easing ahead and concerns about economic softness, could fuel a year-end rally. A hawkish cut, where he emphasizes patience and limited future moves, could kill the vibe pretty quickly.

Investors will be parsing every word Powell says about future cuts, labor market weakness, and financial conditions. Is this the beginning of a sustained easing cycle, or just a one-time adjustment? The answer to that question matters a lot more than whether rates drop by 25 basis points this Wednesday.

Oracle's Moment of Truth

Oracle (ORCL) reports earnings into what might be the most skeptical audience it's faced in years. The company has touted a massive AI cloud backlog, but analysts have raised questions about whether those commitments are real or inflated by flexible, cancellable contracts. The core question heading into the print: will Oracle actually convert that backlog into revenue at scale?

Adding fuel to the skepticism, Oracle's debt CDS spreads have widened recently, suggesting credit markets are getting nervous about the company's leverage and its ability to maintain margins while funding aggressive AI and datacenter expansion.

Here's what Wall Street expects for the quarter:

• Revenue: around $13.2 billion
• EPS: approximately $1.37
• Cloud growth: mid-teens percentage range
• GenAI infrastructure visibility: the wildcard everyone's watching

The big concern is whether Oracle's heavy spending on NVDA hardware and datacenter buildouts will actually accelerate cloud revenue growth or just compress profitability through 2025. Oracle has delivered some wild post-earnings moves over the past few quarters, so traders are bracing for another big swing in either direction.

Value Takes the Lead

Markets have rotated hard into value stocks. Financials, industrials, and energy names are leading the charge, while AI-adjacent tech and high-beta growth stocks are lagging. Mega-cap defensive stocks are holding steady, which tells you that investors are prioritizing profitability over potential right now.

Adobe reports Wednesday, and expectations are sitting at an interesting crossroads. Revenue growth should land in the mid-teens, margins look healthy, and AI tools are adding some uplift across Creative Cloud. But the stock has broken down technically, which raises an important question: is Adobe just caught in the sector rotation away from growth, or is there something deeper going wrong with the business itself?

It's the kind of question that matters because it determines whether you're buying a dip or catching a falling knife. The earnings report should provide some clarity, assuming management gives straight answers about demand trends and competitive positioning.