Bernstein just gave Bitcoin (BTC) bulls something to get excited about. The investment firm released a report Monday calling for Bitcoin to hit $150,000 by 2026, arguing that the crypto's institutional base has grown solid enough to support a much longer rally than we've seen in previous cycles.

The Four-Year Cycle Is Dead, Long Live the Institutional Bull Run

Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, highlighted Bernstein's research, which claims Bitcoin has officially broken free from its traditional four-year boom-and-bust pattern. Instead, we're entering what the firm calls "an elongated bull-cycle."

The reason? Institutional money has replaced the wild swings driven by retail traders. When Bitcoin dropped from above $125,000 to around $90,000 recently, spot Bitcoin ETFs only saw about 5% in outflows. That's a remarkably small dent compared to the panic selling we used to see when retail investors dominated the market.

Bernstein's updated forecast doesn't stop at 2026. The firm projects a potential cycle peak of $200,000 in 2027 and a long-term target of $1 million by 2033. These aren't shy predictions, but Bernstein previously described its earlier $200,000 forecast as "conservative," which tells you how quickly institutional flows have changed their thinking about Bitcoin's trajectory.

All Eyes on the Fed This Week

The Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday could set the tone for Bitcoin's near-term direction. Trading firms and macro strategists are nearly certain the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25%, with the CME FedWatch tool showing an 86% probability and prediction markets on Polymarket putting odds near 94%.

Analysts David Brickell and Chris Mills of the London Crypto Club wrote in their weekly newsletter that a "dovish surprise" could spark a sharp Bitcoin rebound if the Fed not only cuts rates but also expands liquidity through bond purchases. They see a continued rate-cutting cycle combined with balance sheet expansion as a "powerful, structural tide" for risk assets heading into the new year.

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research noted that policymakers are "expected almost universally" to cut rates again, marking the third reduction this year. Lower rates historically support assets like Bitcoin because they reduce risk-free yields and push capital toward higher-return markets.

Global Policy Decisions Add Complexity

The Fed isn't the only central bank making moves this week. Investors are tracking policy decisions from central banks in Canada, Australia, and Switzerland. China and Taiwan will release export data that could shift broader market risk sentiment, and Japan is weighing another rate increase to combat yen weakness.

All of these events stack uncertainty on top of a market that's already trading in a tight range, waiting for a catalyst to break one way or the other.

Technical Picture Shows Bitcoin Coiled for a Move

Bitcoin continues trading inside a narrowing triangle pattern, with price holding above $88,500 support. That level has been tested three times and remains the critical barrier between consolidation and a deeper drop toward the low $80,000s.

A descending trendline from the November peak has capped every rebound attempt. Resistance sits between $90,400 and $91,000, where the 20- and 50-day EMAs converge with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $90,799.

If Bitcoin breaks cleanly above $91,000, the path opens toward $93,900 and then $97,100, which lines up with the 0.618 Fibonacci level. On the flip side, losing $88,500 would expose $86,800, which traders view as the structural do-not-break level. A failure there could trigger a fast decline toward $82,000 due to thin support below.

With institutional flows showing resilience, central bank decisions looming, and price action compressed in a tight range, Bitcoin appears to be setting up for a significant move. Whether Bernstein's ambitious targets play out depends on whether this new institutional foundation can weather the macro storms ahead.