Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. (CBRL) is about to reveal whether a botched logo redesign did lasting damage to its business. The restaurant chain reports first-quarter earnings Tuesday after market close, and the results will include the fallout from one of 2024's most memorable corporate missteps.

Here's what Wall Street expects, what analysts are saying, and the key metrics that will tell us if Cracker Barrel can move past this mess.

The Numbers Wall Street Wants to See

Analysts expect Cracker Barrel to report first-quarter revenue of $802.22 million, which would be down from $845.09 million in last year's first quarter. That would also mark the lowest quarterly revenue for the company in 15 quarters, going all the way back to fiscal Q3 2022 when revenue hit $790.2 million.

The company has only beaten revenue estimates in three of the last ten quarters, so the bar isn't exactly high here.

On the earnings side, analysts expect a loss of 68 cents per share, a painful swing from the 45-cent profit the company posted in last year's first quarter. Cracker Barrel has beaten earnings per share estimates in four of the last ten quarters overall.

What the Analysts Are Saying

Wall Street has been cautious on Cracker Barrel since the company reported fourth-quarter results. Those results covered the quarter ended August 1 and didn't include the backlash and boycotts that erupted after the planned logo change in mid-August.

Bank of America Securities analyst Sara Senatore said the fourth-quarter results and forward guidance showed the rebrand response could seriously hurt the stock.

"Negative rebrand response a setback for turnaround," Senatore noted.

The analyst said sales momentum in the fourth quarter was "overshadowed" by the backlash to the company's logo change and store décor changes.

"With younger consumers reacting more strongly than older consumers, we see risk that efforts to evolve the brand have been stymied, at least temporarily."

Senatore reiterated an Underperform rating and lowered her price target from $48 to $42 following the Q4 report.

Piper Sandler analyst Brian Mullan also cut his price target from $56 to $49 after Q4 results, citing traffic declines and disappointing guidance while maintaining a Neutral rating.

Mullan pointed out that Cracker Barrel's fourth-quarter traffic was down 1% and stayed around that level through the first 18 days of the current first quarter.

"Following the unveiling of the new logo on August 19 and the related media attention, traffic has been running down ~8%," Mullan said.

The analyst noted that fiscal 2026 guidance came in below consensus and suggests potential traffic declines of 4% to 7% for the full fiscal year. EBITDA guidance was also well below estimates.

Other recent analyst moves paint a similarly grim picture:

• UBS: Maintained Neutral rating, slashed price target from $48 to $30
• Truist: Maintained Buy rating, lowered price target from $58 to $50
• Citigroup: Maintained Sell rating, cut price target from $42 to $24

The Traffic Data Tells a Brutal Story

Data from Placer.ai shows exactly how much visitor traffic collapsed at Cracker Barrel locations after the logo change.

Visits fell 5.3% in the week of August 25 through August 31, right after the logo change on August 19.

Things got worse in the weeks after the company announced plans to revert to the old logo on August 26. Here's what Placer.ai tracked:

• Week of Sept. 1: -10.1% year-over-year
• Week of Sept. 8: -10.0% year-over-year
• Week of Sept. 15: -9.9% year-over-year
• Week of Sept. 22: -7.2% year-over-year

"The consumer backlash to Cracker Barrel's new logo in August triggered a sharp decline in restaurant visits, with year-over-year traffic dropping by roughly double digits for most weeks following the announcement," said R.J. Hottovy, Head of Analytical Research at Placer.ai.

The data showed sharp declines for several weeks, but there might be a glimmer of hope. Visits fell just 7.2% in the last week of September, a noticeable improvement from the 10% declines in three straight weeks prior.

For the full month of September, visits were down 12.1% year-over-year. By contrast, August saw visits down just 0.1% year-over-year.

That's actually a critical detail for Tuesday's earnings report. The first quarter includes the month of August, and even with the logo change happening mid-month and a 5.3% drop in the last full week, August ended almost flat for visit growth. The real carnage happened in September.

What to Watch Tuesday

The fourth quarter marked the fifth consecutive quarter of comparable-store restaurant sales increases for Cracker Barrel, but future quarters could face serious pressure since the backlash erupted after the fourth quarter ended.

The company's fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $3.35 billion to $3.45 billion fell short of analyst estimates of $3.47 billion when it was announced.

The big questions for Tuesday: How bad was the actual financial impact in Q1? And more importantly, what does management say about the recovery trajectory going forward?

Investors will be watching closely to see if the late-September improvement in foot traffic continues or if the damage runs deeper than a few bad weeks.

CBRL Price Action: Cracker Barrel stock is down 2.7% to $27.07 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $25.62 to $71.93. Shares are down 50.7% year-to-date in 2025.