Home Depot Inc. (HD) used its investor day on Tuesday to play it both ways: here's what we expect if things stay sluggish, and here's what could happen if the housing market actually recovers.

The company stuck with its 2025 sales growth forecast of about 3%, just a hair below the Street's 3.2% estimate. That figure includes roughly $2 billion from the GMS acquisition, according to Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane, who maintained her buy rating and $406 price target on the shares.

For this year, Home Depot is projecting "slightly positive comparable sales" alongside an adjusted earnings decline of around 5%. Not exactly thrilling, but not surprising given the current state of home improvement spending.

The preliminary 2026 outlook assumes the home improvement market grows somewhere between -1% and +1%—basically flat. Under that scenario, Home Depot sees sales growth of 2.5% to 4.5%, comparable sales ranging from flat to up 2%, and adjusted earnings anywhere from flat to down 4%. McShane noted these projections run slightly below current consensus estimates.

But here's where it gets interesting: Management also presented what they're calling a "market recovery case" that kicks in once housing activity picks up and customers start tackling those bigger projects they've been putting off. In that scenario, sales could grow 5% to 6%, comparable sales would rise 4% to 5%, and adjusted earnings would climb by mid-to-high single digits.

Shares of Home Depot were up 0.15% to $350.43 on Tuesday following the presentation.