Bitcoin (BTC) is catching a bid at exactly the right moment. With the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, traders are rotating back into risk assets, and crypto is leading the charge.

The price action tells the story: Bitcoin jumped 4% on Tuesday to reclaim $93,000, and prediction markets responded immediately. Kalshi's contract asking whether Bitcoin will cross $100,000 again this year surged to 51% probability, up from just 34% earlier in the day. Over on Polymarket, the odds of Bitcoin trading above $95,000 climbed 24% to reach 88%, while the chances of breaking $100,000 spiked 19% to land at 50%.

Here's where it gets interesting. Crypto analyst Kaleo pointed out that the current setup mirrors October 2024—high fear, heavy bearish positioning, and widespread expectations of another collapse. That period turned out to mark the bottom before Bitcoin pushed to new all-time highs. It's a useful reminder that extreme pessimism often shows up right before major opportunities.

The positioning data backs up the bullish case. Market commentator ChimpZoo highlighted an asymmetric squeeze developing: a $7,000 move higher from current levels would liquidate roughly 3,500 BTC worth of short positions, while a $10,000 drop would only liquidate about 1,350 BTC in longs. Translation: the market is overwhelmingly positioned for downside that might not come.

With the FOMC meeting hours away, traders are watching whether Bitcoin can hold these support levels. If it does, a test of $100,000 before year-end looks increasingly plausible. Meanwhile, Ethereum watchers are eyeing a potential breakout that could squeeze shorts and restore broader market optimism.