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Prediction Markets Signal Near Certainty on Fed Rate Cut as Powell Decision Looms

MarketDash Editorial Team
3 hours ago
Bettors on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are wagering hundreds of millions on a quarter-point rate cut, with odds approaching 97%. But the real drama may come from what Jerome Powell says next.

If you want to know what the Federal Reserve will do on Wednesday, you could read economic reports and parse Fed speeches. Or you could just check where people are putting their money.

The Smart Money Says Cut

Bettors on decentralized prediction platform Polymarket are pricing in a 97% chance of a quarter-point interest rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee wraps up its December meeting. That's a dramatic shift from just a month ago, when the odds sat at 70%.

The alternative—that rates stay put in the current 3.75%-4.00% range—has collapsed to a mere 3% probability. More than $348 million has been staked on the outcome, making this one of the platform's most active markets.

Over at Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction market, the consensus is nearly identical at 96%. Even the CME FedWatch tracker, which uses futures pricing rather than direct bets, assigns an 89.9% chance to a rate cut.

Beyond the Cut Itself

The rate decision may be a foregone conclusion, but that doesn't mean Wednesday will be boring. Investors will scrutinize the Fed's updated economic projections and hang on every word from Chair Jerome Powell during his press conference.

Peter Williams, an analyst at 22V Research, predicts an unusual split within the committee. He expects Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid to dissent by opposing any cut, while Governor Stephen Miran may dissent from the dovish side by advocating for a larger 50 basis-point reduction.

A Reuters poll of over 100 economists anticipates a single quarter-point move accompanied by cautious language from Powell about the path forward into 2026. Translation: don't expect the Fed to commit to a long series of cuts just yet.

Back to News

Prediction Markets Signal Near Certainty on Fed Rate Cut as Powell Decision Looms

MarketDash Editorial Team
3 hours ago
Bettors on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are wagering hundreds of millions on a quarter-point rate cut, with odds approaching 97%. But the real drama may come from what Jerome Powell says next.

If you want to know what the Federal Reserve will do on Wednesday, you could read economic reports and parse Fed speeches. Or you could just check where people are putting their money.

The Smart Money Says Cut

Bettors on decentralized prediction platform Polymarket are pricing in a 97% chance of a quarter-point interest rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee wraps up its December meeting. That's a dramatic shift from just a month ago, when the odds sat at 70%.

The alternative—that rates stay put in the current 3.75%-4.00% range—has collapsed to a mere 3% probability. More than $348 million has been staked on the outcome, making this one of the platform's most active markets.

Over at Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction market, the consensus is nearly identical at 96%. Even the CME FedWatch tracker, which uses futures pricing rather than direct bets, assigns an 89.9% chance to a rate cut.

Beyond the Cut Itself

The rate decision may be a foregone conclusion, but that doesn't mean Wednesday will be boring. Investors will scrutinize the Fed's updated economic projections and hang on every word from Chair Jerome Powell during his press conference.

Peter Williams, an analyst at 22V Research, predicts an unusual split within the committee. He expects Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid to dissent by opposing any cut, while Governor Stephen Miran may dissent from the dovish side by advocating for a larger 50 basis-point reduction.

A Reuters poll of over 100 economists anticipates a single quarter-point move accompanied by cautious language from Powell about the path forward into 2026. Translation: don't expect the Fed to commit to a long series of cuts just yet.