Bitcoin (BTC) is stuck in a tight trading range between $90,000 and $93,000 as the crypto world waits for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Jerome Powell's press conference—events that have historically triggered some serious price swings.

The Pattern Is Hard to Ignore

Crypto chart analyst Ali Martinez pointed out something that should make Bitcoin bulls a bit nervous: the FOMC track record this year hasn't been kind to crypto. Out of seven Fed meetings in 2025, Bitcoin tumbled after six of them, with declines ranging from 6% all the way to 29%. The sole bright spot came in May with a brief 15% rally.

Here's the kicker—Bitcoin often rallies into these meetings on optimism, only to sell off once Powell starts talking. Even with markets pricing in a 97% chance of a quarter-point rate cut today, history suggests caution.

What Traders Are Watching

Nic Puckrin, investment analyst and co-founder of The Coin Bureau, told MarketDash that rising U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and weakness in both the S&P 500 and gold indicate traders aren't expecting Powell to sound particularly encouraging. A hawkish tone could crush any hopes of a year-end rally, especially since Bitcoin's momentum has already been fading despite fresh accumulation by Michael Saylor's Strategy.

Puckrin thinks a year-end close below $100,000 is increasingly likely. But—and this is important—he stressed that doesn't mean we're entering a new bear market. Looking ahead to 2026, he's actually optimistic. Sentiment could flip quickly if the ultra-dovish Kevin Hassett replaces Powell at the Fed next year. Add in improving regulatory clarity from the pending market structure bill and growing institutional adoption, and the long-term picture still looks solid.

As Puckrin put it: "Bitcoin's new all-time high hasn't been cancelled—only delayed."