The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) chart is looking rough. What was once the darling of the Bitcoin ETF world is now sliding into a technical setup that even the optimists have to acknowledge: a death cross is coming, and it's close enough that traders are watching every tick.

The Technical Picture Keeps Getting Worse

IBIT is trading at $52.14, sitting below every major long-term moving average. The 50-day moving average is at $58.79 and the 200-day is at $58.67, practically glued together and both tilting downward. That's the classic setup for a bearish crossover, the kind that sends technical traders reaching for the sell button.

Momentum indicators aren't offering any relief either. The MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) sits at a negative 1.83, showing sellers are still firmly in control. Meanwhile, the RSI (relative strength index) at 45 isn't even close to oversold territory, which means there's room for more downside pressure without triggering the automatic buying that sometimes rescues beaten-down assets.

Short-Term Support Doesn't Look Sturdy

Zooming in on the shorter timeframes doesn't provide much comfort. The eight-day moving average sits at $51.58 and the 20-day at $51.72, both just under the current price. That's a thin cushion. One clean break lower and IBIT loses its only near-term support level worth mentioning.

The damage so far is substantial: down 13% over the past month, down 16% over six months, and down 6% year to date. The ETF has drifted steadily away from its $71.82 high and is now creeping uncomfortably close to its $42.98 low.

Tom Lee Isn't Changing His Mind

But while the chart is practically screaming caution, Tom Lee isn't listening. The Fundstrat bull is holding the line on his bullish call, still forecasting Bitcoin (BTC) to end the year above $100,000. He's even hinting at a possible new high before we flip the calendar to 2026. In his view, the chart is misleading and the market is simply shaking out weak hands before the next leg higher.

A Market Caught Between Technicals and Conviction

So here's where we are: if the death cross actually materializes, technical traders will brace for a deeper selloff. The bearish signal would validate the downward momentum and likely trigger more selling pressure. But if Lee turns out to be right, this becomes just another false alarm in what he sees as a longer bullish trend.

Either way, IBIT is heading into a decisive stretch. The next few weeks will tell us whether the technicals win or whether conviction trumps the chart. And one thing's certain: this is about to get interesting.