When Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) reports fourth-quarter earnings Thursday after the close, the semiconductor giant faces a peculiar challenge: living up to its own remarkable track record. The company has posted 10 straight quarters of record revenue, each one higher than the last. Now analysts expect an 11th.
That's the kind of winning streak that makes investors nervous about what happens when it stops.
What the Numbers Say
Analysts are forecasting fourth-quarter revenue of $17.49 billion, a healthy jump from $14.05 billion in the same quarter last year, according to data from Benzinga Pro. The company's own guidance called for $17.4 billion, so expectations are slightly ahead of management's projection.
On the earnings side, Wall Street expects $1.86 per share, up from $1.42 a year ago. Broadcom has been pretty good at clearing these hurdles—they've beaten revenue estimates in three straight quarters and eight of the past 10. On earnings per share, it's even better: three straight beats and nine out of the last 10 quarters.
The real story, though, is artificial intelligence. JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur, who maintains an Overweight rating, estimates AI revenue will land between $6.5 billion and $6.7 billion this quarter. That's a meaningful jump from the $5.2 billion reported in the third quarter, which itself was up 63% year-over-year. Broadcom's own estimate for fourth-quarter AI revenue sits at $6.2 billion.
Analyst Optimism Runs High
Ahead of the report, analysts have been updating their models and raising price targets. Sur expects the company to deliver strong first-quarter guidance as well, with estimates of $19 billion in total revenue and $8 billion specifically from AI.
BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya reiterated a Buy rating and bumped the price target from $400 to $460. His thesis centers on deepening relationships with major tech companies. He sees strong demand from Google, Anthropic, and Meta expanding and helping power both near-term guidance and longer-term results. The takeaway: Broadcom is well-positioned as AI spending ramps up across the industry.
Other analysts are equally bullish. Rosenblatt maintained a Buy rating and raised its target from $400 to $440. Oppenheimer kept its Outperform rating with a new target of $435, up from $400. Susquehanna maintained a Positive rating with a $450 target, while Morgan Stanley stuck with Overweight and moved its target from $409 to $443.
What to Watch
With shares up 73.7% year-to-date and trading near all-time highs of $407.28, Broadcom needs to deliver more than just a beat—it needs to show that the momentum can continue. A recent report suggests Microsoft is working with Broadcom on custom AI chips, potentially shifting business away from Marvell. If true, that's another big-name customer win in an increasingly important market.
In the AI chip space, Broadcom has been landing deals with some of the largest tech companies in the world. That's given the stock a boost and made it the largest holding in the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) at 8.42% of assets—even ahead of Nvidia, thanks to this year's rally.
The stakes extend beyond Broadcom itself. A strong report could lift sentiment across the entire semiconductor sector. Conversely, any disappointment or cautious guidance might give investors a reason to take profits after such a strong run.
Management's commentary will be critical. Investors will want to hear about order visibility, customer pipeline, and whether the AI infrastructure buildout shows any signs of slowing. So far, the answer has been a resounding no. The question Thursday is whether that story remains intact.
AVGO Price Action: Broadcom shares traded up 0.24% at $407.26 on Wednesday, near the top of its 52-week range of $138.10 to $407.28.