The autonomous vehicle battle is heating up, and Elon Musk wants everyone to know he's already won. The Tesla Inc. (TSLA) CEO took a shot at Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) (GOOG)'s Waymo this week, claiming the robotaxi rival never stood a chance against Tesla, even as Waymo released impressive numbers showing real-world traction.
The Exchange That Started It All
The verbal sparring began Tuesday when Jeff Dean, Google's chief scientist for DeepMind, shared his perspective on the autonomous vehicle sector via X. When asked about Tesla's AI capabilities, Dean pointed out what seemed like an obvious advantage: "I don't think Tesla has anywhere near the volume of rider-only autonomous miles that Waymo has."
Musk's response was classic Musk—confident and dismissive. "Waymo never really had a chance against Tesla," he wrote, suggesting that people would understand this "in hindsight." It's the kind of statement that's either going to look brilliant or age poorly, with no middle ground.
Waymo's Numbers Tell a Different Story
On Wednesday, Waymo dropped some data that complicates Musk's narrative. The company announced it had completed 14 million paid robotaxi rides for the year and expects to surpass 20 million lifetime trips by year-end. That's not theoretical—those are actual paying customers riding in genuinely autonomous vehicles.
The company also revealed that riders have logged over 3.8 million hours across all its operating cities. According to investment firm Tiger Global, which holds a position in Waymo, the company is now handling 450,000 rides per week. That's a substantial operation by any measure.
What the Money Looks Like
Ross Gerber, co-founder of Gerber Kawasaki, crunched the numbers on Waymo's business. He estimates the company is generating around $200 million annually from its fleet of 2,500 robotaxis. Gerber also suggested that Waymo's expansion could create headaches for Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER), which has its own autonomous ambitions but still relies heavily on human drivers.
The revenue figures might seem modest for a company backed by Alphabet's resources, but they represent something important: proof that people will actually pay for autonomous rides at scale.
Tesla's Countermove
Not to be outdone, Musk provided an update on Tesla's self-driving progress at the xAI Hackathon. He declared that unsupervised Full Self-Driving is "pretty much solved at this point." More provocatively, he announced that Tesla's Austin robotaxis would operate without onboard safety monitors within three weeks.
That's a significant claim. Waymo still uses remote assistance for some situations, and most autonomous vehicle companies maintain some level of human oversight. If Tesla actually deploys truly unsupervised robotaxis in Austin as promised, it would represent a major milestone—assuming regulators and reality cooperate.
The Fundamental Difference
What makes this rivalry fascinating is that Tesla and Waymo are pursuing fundamentally different strategies. Waymo uses expensive sensor arrays including lidar and operates in mapped, geofenced areas. Tesla relies on cameras and neural networks, aiming for a solution that works anywhere without detailed mapping.
Waymo has the advantage of operating commercial services right now in multiple cities. Tesla has the advantage of millions of cars collecting data and a potentially more scalable approach if it works. Who's actually ahead depends entirely on which metric you value more: current deployment or future potential.
Market Response
Tesla (TSLA) shares climbed 1.41% to $451.45 at market close, though the stock gave back some gains in after-hours trading, declining 0.65% to $448.50. The autonomous vehicle narrative continues to be a significant part of Tesla's valuation story, for better or worse.