Here's the thing about China's big push toward semiconductor independence: it might not actually work the way Beijing wants it to. At least, that's what Daniel Newman thinks, and he's putting his money where his mouth is.
The Futurum CEO argued on Wednesday that China's best path forward in the AI race still runs straight through Nvidia Corp (NVDA), even as the country loudly champions domestic alternatives like Huawei Technologies. Political posturing aside, Newman believes Chinese developers know what works, and right now that's Nvidia's hardware and software ecosystem.
Why China Can't Quit Nvidia
Taking to X, Newman pushed back against the narrative that China would simply walk away from Nvidia's H200 chips. "We do not believe that the narrative that China won't buy $NVDA H200 to be accurate," he wrote. "There is some political jockeying, but in the end China has a better chance of keeping up in the AI race with NVIDIA even if Huawei eventually does build more competitor hardware."
Newman shared a clip from his Bloomberg appearance, noting that his team always expected this outcome. The reality is that Nvidia's platform remains the gold standard for Chinese developers working on AI projects, regardless of what government officials might prefer.
Trump's Export Approval Sparks Backlash
The debate heated up after President Donald Trump announced Monday that the U.S. would allow Nvidia to export H200 chips to approved Chinese customers. The caveat? More advanced Blackwell and future Rubin processors remain off-limits.
That decision landed like a bomb in Washington. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), and former Republican presidential contender Nikki Haley all accused Trump of compromising national security. It's the kind of move that manages to unite lawmakers across the aisle, which tells you something about how sensitive chip exports to China have become.
Beijing's Regulatory Response
Meanwhile, Beijing isn't sitting idle. Chinese regulators are reportedly weighing their own approval system that would require domestic buyers to justify why homegrown chips can't meet their needs before purchasing Nvidia's H200. It's a clever bit of bureaucratic pressure, forcing companies to at least consider local alternatives even if they ultimately conclude they need the American hardware.
The irony is thick: both governments want to restrict access to these chips, just for opposite reasons. Washington wants to limit China's AI capabilities. Beijing wants to boost domestic semiconductor production. Nvidia is caught in the middle, making chips that apparently everyone wants and nobody wants the other side to have.
Market data underscores Nvidia's competitive strength, with the company ranking in the 97th percentile for Growth and 92nd percentile for Quality among its peers.