Bitcoin (BTC) might have one more run left in the tank, but don't get too comfortable. Crypto analyst Trader Mayne thinks Bitcoin could push past $100,000 again—maybe into the $105,000 to $110,000 range—but he's warning that this looks less like the start of something great and more like the final stretch before things get ugly in 2026.

The Rally Has Limits

In his latest podcast, Mayne laid out why he's skeptical about Bitcoin's staying power. Sure, the daily chart flipped bullish ahead of Wednesday's rate cut, but the bigger picture still shows a downtrend. Two major barriers are blocking the path forward: the yearly open at $93,800 and a descending trendline that's been rejecting rallies like clockwork.

Mayne gives better than 50% odds that Bitcoin tops out below new all-time highs. He's planning to sell into strength, believing the current bearish sentiment could fuel a short-squeeze rally—but not a genuine breakout.

He's particularly skeptical of narratives claiming the four-year cycle is dead or that we've entered a new five-year super cycle. "The end of QT is not the start of QE," he said, suggesting that 2026 could bring broad bearishness with Bitcoin potentially dropping back to $50,000.

Ethereum Looks Surprisingly Strong

Interestingly, Mayne pointed to Ethereum's relative strength. He thinks ETH could reclaim its yearly open and potentially rally toward $4,000, maybe even turning positive for the year before Bitcoin does—similar to what happened in late 2021.

The Waiting Game

Meanwhile, Daan Crypto Trades noted that from a liquidity standpoint, the real breakout zone sits at $97,000 to $98,000. With Bitcoin getting repeatedly rejected at $94,000, he expects consolidation until BTC finally clears resistance. When it does, the move could be sharp—but until then, traders should brace for sideways action and stay patient.