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Why Oracle's $523 Billion Backlog Matters More Than Today's Stock Drop

MarketDash Editorial Team
14 hours ago
Oracle shares tumbled after mixed quarterly results, but analysts say the company's massive backlog tells a different story about its role in AI infrastructure. The debate centers on one key metric.

Oracle Corp (ORCL) is having a rough day, down over 14% after reporting second-quarter results that technically beat earnings but missed on revenue. For analysts trying to gauge the health of AI infrastructure spending, though, Oracle's quarterly report offers something more interesting than the usual beat-or-miss drama: a window into what hyperscale customers are actually committing to build.

The stock may be down, but the analyst community is split on what it all means. Here's how the major banks are thinking about it.

The Analyst Scoreboard

JPMorgan analyst Mark Murphy kept his Neutral rating but trimmed his price target from $270 to $230. Wedbush's Dan Ives maintains an Outperform rating. Bank of America's Brad Sills held onto his Buy rating while lowering the price target from $368 to $300.

So what's the problem? Oracle's third-quarter guidance came in below expectations, and the near-term margin picture looks thin. But that's not the number anyone's really focused on.

The $523 Billion Question

Oracle added $68 billion in remaining performance obligations (RPO) during the quarter, pushing total backlog to $523 billion. That's above the Street estimate of $500 billion, and it's the metric analysts keep circling back to.

"Oracle added $68B of RPO in Q2, lifting total backlog to $523B and again demonstrating that hyperscale and frontier-model customers, namely Meta, NVIDIA, and others are committing to long-duration OCI capacity at escalating scale," Murphy noted.

Ives from Wedbush was even more emphatic. "This is the number we are most focused on around the future and health of Oracle's AI buildout and strategy looking ahead," he said. He projects this backlog could drive 17% revenue growth in 2026, accelerating to 35% in 2027 and 47% in 2028.

"This is why Oracle is a bedrock for the AI Revolution," Ives added.

Building Before Earning

Bank of America's Sills offered perhaps the clearest framing of Oracle's current situation. "If you build it, they will come. But you have to build it first," he said.

In other words, Oracle is in the middle of its largest AI infrastructure buildout phase and is "paying the price to invest in growth." The revenue will follow, but there's a timing mismatch between spending now and recognizing revenue later.

"We view the current mismatch of spend versus revenue as an investment curve issue rather than a change in fundamentals," Sills wrote. He added that "the basic fundamentals of Oracle remain strong" and sees potential for "sentiment and estimates to reset higher."

Why The Market Is Skeptical

Murphy pointed out that much of the incremental RPO is tied to multi-year commitments, which could limit near-term stock momentum even as it validates the long-term thesis. The company's guidance suggests modest incremental margins for now, which isn't what investors want to see when the stock's been riding high on AI enthusiasm.

Still, Murphy acknowledged that Oracle's "resilient, sticky, and largely recurring revenue stream with relatively low viability risk positions Oracle well to relatively outperform."

Ives pushed back on bearish interpretations more forcefully, suggesting Oracle's earnings might cause some to "yell fire in a crowded theater" despite the strong RPO print. His view: the backlog numbers tell the real story, and the market is missing it.

The Bottom Line

Oracle stock closed down 14.3% at $191.02 on Thursday, a sharp retreat from its 52-week high of $345.72. Still, shares remain up 15.1% year-to-date in 2025, trading well above the 52-week low of $118.86.

The tension here is classic: Oracle is spending heavily to build out capacity that major AI players are already committed to using. That's great for 2027 and 2028, but it squeezes margins right now. Whether you see today's drop as a buying opportunity or a warning sign depends entirely on how much you believe that $523 billion backlog will actually convert into the growth Ives is projecting.

For now, the market is voting with its feet. The analysts, though, seem willing to look past the next few quarters.

Back to News

Why Oracle's $523 Billion Backlog Matters More Than Today's Stock Drop

MarketDash Editorial Team
14 hours ago
Oracle shares tumbled after mixed quarterly results, but analysts say the company's massive backlog tells a different story about its role in AI infrastructure. The debate centers on one key metric.

Oracle Corp (ORCL) is having a rough day, down over 14% after reporting second-quarter results that technically beat earnings but missed on revenue. For analysts trying to gauge the health of AI infrastructure spending, though, Oracle's quarterly report offers something more interesting than the usual beat-or-miss drama: a window into what hyperscale customers are actually committing to build.

The stock may be down, but the analyst community is split on what it all means. Here's how the major banks are thinking about it.

The Analyst Scoreboard

JPMorgan analyst Mark Murphy kept his Neutral rating but trimmed his price target from $270 to $230. Wedbush's Dan Ives maintains an Outperform rating. Bank of America's Brad Sills held onto his Buy rating while lowering the price target from $368 to $300.

So what's the problem? Oracle's third-quarter guidance came in below expectations, and the near-term margin picture looks thin. But that's not the number anyone's really focused on.

The $523 Billion Question

Oracle added $68 billion in remaining performance obligations (RPO) during the quarter, pushing total backlog to $523 billion. That's above the Street estimate of $500 billion, and it's the metric analysts keep circling back to.

"Oracle added $68B of RPO in Q2, lifting total backlog to $523B and again demonstrating that hyperscale and frontier-model customers, namely Meta, NVIDIA, and others are committing to long-duration OCI capacity at escalating scale," Murphy noted.

Ives from Wedbush was even more emphatic. "This is the number we are most focused on around the future and health of Oracle's AI buildout and strategy looking ahead," he said. He projects this backlog could drive 17% revenue growth in 2026, accelerating to 35% in 2027 and 47% in 2028.

"This is why Oracle is a bedrock for the AI Revolution," Ives added.

Building Before Earning

Bank of America's Sills offered perhaps the clearest framing of Oracle's current situation. "If you build it, they will come. But you have to build it first," he said.

In other words, Oracle is in the middle of its largest AI infrastructure buildout phase and is "paying the price to invest in growth." The revenue will follow, but there's a timing mismatch between spending now and recognizing revenue later.

"We view the current mismatch of spend versus revenue as an investment curve issue rather than a change in fundamentals," Sills wrote. He added that "the basic fundamentals of Oracle remain strong" and sees potential for "sentiment and estimates to reset higher."

Why The Market Is Skeptical

Murphy pointed out that much of the incremental RPO is tied to multi-year commitments, which could limit near-term stock momentum even as it validates the long-term thesis. The company's guidance suggests modest incremental margins for now, which isn't what investors want to see when the stock's been riding high on AI enthusiasm.

Still, Murphy acknowledged that Oracle's "resilient, sticky, and largely recurring revenue stream with relatively low viability risk positions Oracle well to relatively outperform."

Ives pushed back on bearish interpretations more forcefully, suggesting Oracle's earnings might cause some to "yell fire in a crowded theater" despite the strong RPO print. His view: the backlog numbers tell the real story, and the market is missing it.

The Bottom Line

Oracle stock closed down 14.3% at $191.02 on Thursday, a sharp retreat from its 52-week high of $345.72. Still, shares remain up 15.1% year-to-date in 2025, trading well above the 52-week low of $118.86.

The tension here is classic: Oracle is spending heavily to build out capacity that major AI players are already committed to using. That's great for 2027 and 2028, but it squeezes margins right now. Whether you see today's drop as a buying opportunity or a warning sign depends entirely on how much you believe that $523 billion backlog will actually convert into the growth Ives is projecting.

For now, the market is voting with its feet. The analysts, though, seem willing to look past the next few quarters.