If you're wondering why Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. (NXDR) suddenly caught fire this week, you can thank Eric Jackson. The investor who orchestrated massive retail rallies in Opendoor Technologies, Inc. (OPEN) and Better Home & Finance Holding Co. (BETR) has declared Nextdoor his next high-conviction "100-bagger" play.
Jackson dropped his bombshell on Wednesday, calling Nextdoor "the most mispriced Agentic-AI platform of the 2020s." And just like clockwork, the stock took off. Shares jumped 24.51% to $3.15 on Thursday, proving once again that Jackson knows how to move markets.
The Hidden Goldmine Nobody Sees
So what's the big idea? Jackson's thesis revolves around something most investors have overlooked: Nextdoor's verified "identity graph." Unlike Reddit or X, where users hide behind anonymous handles, Nextdoor connects real, verified people to actual physical addresses. In Jackson's view, that's the secret sauce for the coming AI revolution.
"The neighborhood — humanity's oldest organizing unit — is becoming an AI-native surface," Jackson explained in a post on X. "Nextdoor owns the trust graph, the identity graph, the proximity graph, the neighborhood ontology. The market hasn't priced any of this."
His argument is that as AI agents become more prevalent, the combination of identity, trust and proximity becomes incredibly valuable. He thinks the market is completely missing this angle, and if he's right, the stock trading around $3.10 could eventually hit $370. That's quite the leap.
The Reality Check
Before you mortgage your house to buy Nextdoor shares, consider the sobering facts. The company has never reported a profitable quarter. Ever. Yes, revenues are growing, hitting nearly $69 million in the most recent quarter, but profitability remains elusive.
Wall Street isn't exactly bullish either. Only one analyst covers the stock, and Citigroup recently maintained a Neutral rating while actually lowering its price target from $2.30 to $2.20, according to Benzinga Pro. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement.
Critics point out that Nextdoor has historically struggled to monetize its user base effectively. The platform competes in a crowded advertising space, and it hasn't exactly distinguished itself as a money-making machine. For Jackson's thesis to work, Nextdoor needs to transform from what many see as a spammy "neighborhood watch" app into a critical infrastructure piece for the AI economy. That's a big ask.
Can Lightning Strike Again?
Jackson has a track record of igniting retail enthusiasm, and his previous calls on Opendoor and Better Home & Finance generated significant meme stock-style rallies. Whether Nextdoor follows the same trajectory remains to be seen. The stock is certainly moving in the right direction for now, but the fundamentals remain shaky.
This is undeniably a speculative play. You're betting on a unprofitable company with minimal analyst coverage to successfully pivot its entire business model and capture value in an emerging AI ecosystem. High risk, potentially high reward. Just make sure you understand what you're getting into.
NXDR Price Action: Nextdoor stock was up 24.51% at $3.15 at the time of publication Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro.