Tesla Inc. (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk's SpaceX is reportedly gearing up for a 2026 IPO that could raise $30 billion and value the company at a jaw-dropping $1.5 trillion. That number would instantly make it the largest offering in market history. It's a bold ask, even by Silicon Valley standards.
But here's the thing: this is also the company that has made a habit of turning audacious engineering claims into Tuesday routine. So the real question isn't whether the valuation sounds crazy. It's whether SpaceX has earned the right to think this big.
When Impossible Becomes Routine
History suggests yes.
- Landing a rocket vertically was once science fiction. Falcon 9 now does it with commuter-level reliability.
- NASA relying on a private company for astronaut transport sounded unlikely. Today SpaceX is the agency's primary ride to orbit.
- And Starlink, once dismissed as an overpriced satellite experiment, now serves more than three million users, is cash-flow positive, and is on track to become the company's largest revenue engine.
SpaceX doesn't just make bold claims. It delivers them at scale, repeatedly, in ways that make the impossible look inevitable in hindsight.
This Isn't Your Typical IPO
If priced at $1.5 trillion, SpaceX wouldn't be coming to market as a high-growth upstart looking to prove itself. It would arrive as a megacap, with investors expected to underwrite the next decade of lunar landings, military contracts, global connectivity, and whatever other geometry Musk draws on a whiteboard.
The value isn't just rockets. It's the ecosystem: launch dominance, Starlink economics, defense positioning, and a pipeline of projects that blur the line between telecom, aerospace, and infrastructure.
The Real Calculation
For investors, the calculus is straightforward: do you believe the next 10 years look anything like the last 10?
Because SpaceX's history makes one thing clear. Betting against its "impossible" ideas has never aged well. The IPO, if it comes, will test just how much that reputation is worth.