The Hypothetical Face-Off

Here's an interesting thought experiment: If SpaceX and Tesla Inc. (TSLA) were both valued at exactly $1.5 trillion, which would you rather own for the next decade? It's not just theoretical anymore. Reports suggest SpaceX could actually go public in 2026 at that precise valuation through a $30 billion IPO, which would make it the biggest market debut in history.

MarketDash recently polled investors on this exact scenario, asking them to choose between the two Elon Musk companies at identical valuations. The question was straightforward: "SpaceX could go public in 2026 at a valuation of $1.5 trillion, the same value as Tesla today. Which of the following would you rather invest in for the next 10 years?"

SpaceX won in a landslide. Out of all respondents, 68.3% chose the space company over Tesla's 31.7%. That's more than a two-to-one preference, suggesting there's pent-up demand from investors who've been waiting years for a chance to buy into Musk's rocket venture.

Why SpaceX Is Winning Hearts and Minds

The timing matters here. SpaceX isn't the speculative bet it once was. The company has become cash-flow positive, largely thanks to Starlink, its satellite internet service that's turned into a genuine revenue machine. Musk himself has said the rising valuation stems from progress on both Starship (the massive reusable rocket) and Starlink's continued expansion.

According to reports, SpaceX is expected to generate $15 billion in revenue for 2025, jumping to somewhere between $22 billion and $24 billion in 2026. Starlink is driving most of that growth. The potential IPO proceeds could fund space-based data centers, adding another revenue stream to the mix.

The $1.5 trillion valuation would put SpaceX slightly ahead of Tesla, which had a market cap of around $1.48 trillion on Thursday. It's a remarkable position for a company that's never been publicly traded.

The Valuation Journey

Back in May, a similar poll asked investors which Musk company they'd most want to invest in at then-current valuations. The results were more fragmented: Starlink (as a standalone) and SpaceX (with minority Starlink ownership) tied at 27% each, followed by X and xAI at 19%, Tesla at 16%, Neuralink at 8%, and The Boring Company at 4%.

Here's where it gets interesting. At the time of that May poll, Tesla was valued at $1.17 trillion and SpaceX at $350 billion. Fast forward to today's $1.5 trillion valuations for both, and Tesla is up 28.2% since then. SpaceX? It's up a staggering 328.6%.

So the investors who chose SpaceX earlier this year absolutely nailed it. Now the question is whether they're right again about preferring SpaceX at these much higher stakes. The 2026 IPO, which could potentially be pushed to 2027, would give everyday investors their first chance to find out.

For Musk fans who've watched Tesla outperform the market for years, the choice between the two companies isn't easy. But if this poll is any indication, the allure of getting in on SpaceX's public debut is proving hard to resist.