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Broadcom's Quarter Was Great, But Wall Street Hates the View Ahead

MarketDash Editorial Team
5 hours ago
Broadcom crushed earnings with record AI revenue, but investors sent shares down 4% after management warned about shrinking margins and a sharp tax rate increase coming in 2026.

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) just delivered one of those "great news, terrible reaction" moments that make Wall Street so much fun. The semiconductor giant crushed its fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday, reported record artificial intelligence revenue, and still watched its stock tumble more than 4% in after-hours trading. Turns out beating expectations isn't enough when your guidance suggests the good times might be getting more expensive.

The Numbers Look Good Until They Don't

Broadcom posted fourth-quarter revenue of $18.02 billion, handily beating analyst estimates of $17.49 billion. AI sales surged 74%, which sounds incredible until you hear what CFO Kirsten Spears said about what comes next. She guided for fiscal first-quarter gross margins to drop approximately 100 basis points sequentially, driven by a shift toward lower-margin AI hardware components. Translation: Broadcom is growing fast, but each dollar of growth is less profitable than before.

This is the classic "profitless growth" concern that spooks investors. Nobody wants to see top-line expansion come at the cost of efficiency, especially when you're already trading at premium valuations.

The Tax Bomb Nobody Saw Coming

If the margin compression wasn't enough to darken the mood, Broadcom dropped another surprise. The company forecasted its non-GAAP tax rate will jump from 14% to approximately 16.5% in 2026 thanks to the global minimum tax and geographic income shifts. That 2.5 percentage point increase represents a direct hit to future earnings per share, forcing analysts to immediately start recalculating their models downward despite the company's growth trajectory.

When you're a company Broadcom's size, a tax hike like that translates into hundreds of millions of dollars. It's the kind of headwind that can overshadow even impressive operational performance.

The AI Story Remains Massive

Here's the thing though: Broadcom's AI business is genuinely exploding. CEO Hock Tan revealed the company has a $73 billion backlog in AI orders—custom accelerators and networking gear—scheduled for delivery over the next 18 months. They also secured their fifth custom silicon customer with a $1 billion initial order, which is the kind of scale that would be headline news at most companies.

But Tan also managed expectations around the OpenAI partnership that's been generating buzz. He clarified that the 10-gigawatt power agreement discussed in recent reports is a long-term project slated for the 2027-2029 timeframe. So if you were counting on that as a catalyst for fiscal 2026, you'll need to wait a few more years.

The Core Business Isn't Helping

Beyond the AI excitement, Broadcom's legacy semiconductor business tells a less thrilling story. The company expects non-AI semiconductor revenue to remain flat year-over-year in the first quarter, citing "limited signs of recovery" in enterprise spending. When your traditional business is stuck in neutral while your high-growth segment comes with margin pressures, investors start to wonder about the sustainability of your overall profitability.

Broadcom did raise its quarterly dividend by 10% to 65 cents per share, which is nice. But when you're dealing with margin compression and tax hikes, a dividend bump doesn't move the needle much.

Market Performance and Outlook

Shares fell 4.47% in after-hours trading after already dropping 1.60% on Thursday. Despite the recent weakness, the stock has been a monster performer this year, up 75.28% year-to-date and 60.68% over the last six months. The company maintains strong price trends across short, medium, and long-term periods, though valuation concerns persist.

The bottom line is that Broadcom delivered exactly what growth investors love—record revenue, massive AI momentum, and a huge order backlog. But the market is forward-looking, and right now it's looking at shrinking margins and higher taxes. Sometimes beating expectations just isn't enough.

Back to News

Broadcom's Quarter Was Great, But Wall Street Hates the View Ahead

MarketDash Editorial Team
5 hours ago
Broadcom crushed earnings with record AI revenue, but investors sent shares down 4% after management warned about shrinking margins and a sharp tax rate increase coming in 2026.

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) just delivered one of those "great news, terrible reaction" moments that make Wall Street so much fun. The semiconductor giant crushed its fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday, reported record artificial intelligence revenue, and still watched its stock tumble more than 4% in after-hours trading. Turns out beating expectations isn't enough when your guidance suggests the good times might be getting more expensive.

The Numbers Look Good Until They Don't

Broadcom posted fourth-quarter revenue of $18.02 billion, handily beating analyst estimates of $17.49 billion. AI sales surged 74%, which sounds incredible until you hear what CFO Kirsten Spears said about what comes next. She guided for fiscal first-quarter gross margins to drop approximately 100 basis points sequentially, driven by a shift toward lower-margin AI hardware components. Translation: Broadcom is growing fast, but each dollar of growth is less profitable than before.

This is the classic "profitless growth" concern that spooks investors. Nobody wants to see top-line expansion come at the cost of efficiency, especially when you're already trading at premium valuations.

The Tax Bomb Nobody Saw Coming

If the margin compression wasn't enough to darken the mood, Broadcom dropped another surprise. The company forecasted its non-GAAP tax rate will jump from 14% to approximately 16.5% in 2026 thanks to the global minimum tax and geographic income shifts. That 2.5 percentage point increase represents a direct hit to future earnings per share, forcing analysts to immediately start recalculating their models downward despite the company's growth trajectory.

When you're a company Broadcom's size, a tax hike like that translates into hundreds of millions of dollars. It's the kind of headwind that can overshadow even impressive operational performance.

The AI Story Remains Massive

Here's the thing though: Broadcom's AI business is genuinely exploding. CEO Hock Tan revealed the company has a $73 billion backlog in AI orders—custom accelerators and networking gear—scheduled for delivery over the next 18 months. They also secured their fifth custom silicon customer with a $1 billion initial order, which is the kind of scale that would be headline news at most companies.

But Tan also managed expectations around the OpenAI partnership that's been generating buzz. He clarified that the 10-gigawatt power agreement discussed in recent reports is a long-term project slated for the 2027-2029 timeframe. So if you were counting on that as a catalyst for fiscal 2026, you'll need to wait a few more years.

The Core Business Isn't Helping

Beyond the AI excitement, Broadcom's legacy semiconductor business tells a less thrilling story. The company expects non-AI semiconductor revenue to remain flat year-over-year in the first quarter, citing "limited signs of recovery" in enterprise spending. When your traditional business is stuck in neutral while your high-growth segment comes with margin pressures, investors start to wonder about the sustainability of your overall profitability.

Broadcom did raise its quarterly dividend by 10% to 65 cents per share, which is nice. But when you're dealing with margin compression and tax hikes, a dividend bump doesn't move the needle much.

Market Performance and Outlook

Shares fell 4.47% in after-hours trading after already dropping 1.60% on Thursday. Despite the recent weakness, the stock has been a monster performer this year, up 75.28% year-to-date and 60.68% over the last six months. The company maintains strong price trends across short, medium, and long-term periods, though valuation concerns persist.

The bottom line is that Broadcom delivered exactly what growth investors love—record revenue, massive AI momentum, and a huge order backlog. But the market is forward-looking, and right now it's looking at shrinking margins and higher taxes. Sometimes beating expectations just isn't enough.