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Citron Research Sees Cybersecurity Stock Poised to Double: 'This Company Must Be Rerated'

MarketDash Editorial Team
5 hours ago
Andrew Left's Citron Research calls SentinelOne deeply mispriced, setting a price target more than double current levels while highlighting the company's role in uncovering Chinese state hackers and its transformation into an AI-powered security platform.

The Mispricing Case

Andrew Left's Citron Research thinks Wall Street is missing something big. In a post Thursday on X, the firm made a bullish call on SentinelOne Inc. (S), the California-based cybersecurity company that just helped identify two Chinese state hackers involved in the massive Salt Typhoon breach.

"This is the same playbook that put CrowdStrike on the map," Citron noted, citing a Wired Magazine story covering the incident. And yet, the market is valuing SentinelOne "like it's going out of business" at just 5.21 times sales.

Here's the thing: Citron believes Wall Street is making its classic mistake with software transformations. The company has shifted from being an "endpoint vendor" to a fully native AI security platform, and the market hasn't caught up. More than 50% of SentinelOne's bookings last quarter came from cloud, data, and AI clients. That's not a dying business.

Citron disclosed a long position in the stock and set a price target of $32, which represents 113% upside from current levels. "The company must be rerated," the firm stated, also calling it "an obvious strategic target" for mergers and acquisitions by larger players.

Purple AI: The Competitive Moat

Citron's most compelling argument centers on SentinelOne's generative AI product, Purple AI, which the firm called the company's "clearest competitive moat." Unlike competitors who bolted AI features onto existing platforms, SentinelOne built Purple AI natively from the ground up.

The numbers back up the hype. Third-party research cited in Citron's report showed a 338% three-year ROI, 55% faster threat remediation, and a 60% reduction in the likelihood of major security events. Those aren't marginal improvements—they're the kind of metrics that can reshape buying decisions in enterprise security.

Strong Earnings, Weak Reaction

SentinelOne reported third-quarter results last week that beat on both lines. Revenue came in at $258.91 million, up 23% year-over-year and ahead of the $257.7 million consensus estimate. Adjusted earnings hit $0.07 per share, topping the $0.05 analyst estimate.

So why did the stock pull back? The fourth-quarter revenue outlook of $271 million came in $2 million below analyst expectations. Citron dismissed this reaction entirely: "The market sold off a $5 billion company over a rounding error."

It's a fair point. The guidance miss was roughly 0.7% below estimates, hardly a signal that the business is broken. But markets can be unforgiving when they're already skeptical.

What The Market Is Missing

Citron's thesis rests on the idea that investors are applying old metrics to a company in transition. Traditional endpoint security vendors trade at lower multiples because they face commoditization pressure. But if SentinelOne is successfully pivoting to become a comprehensive AI-powered security platform—one that's gaining traction with enterprise customers—then the valuation framework should shift.

Shares of SentinelOne closed Thursday down 1.64% at $14.99, though they gained 0.60% in overnight trading. The stock has struggled with momentum recently, showing unfavorable price trends across short, medium, and long-term periods according to market data.

Whether Citron is right about the rerating depends on whether SentinelOne can sustain its growth trajectory and prove that its AI platform is more than just a buzzword. But at 5.21 times sales for a company growing revenue at 23% with improving profitability metrics, the valuation certainly looks interesting—especially if the business transformation story holds up.

Back to News

Citron Research Sees Cybersecurity Stock Poised to Double: 'This Company Must Be Rerated'

MarketDash Editorial Team
5 hours ago
Andrew Left's Citron Research calls SentinelOne deeply mispriced, setting a price target more than double current levels while highlighting the company's role in uncovering Chinese state hackers and its transformation into an AI-powered security platform.

The Mispricing Case

Andrew Left's Citron Research thinks Wall Street is missing something big. In a post Thursday on X, the firm made a bullish call on SentinelOne Inc. (S), the California-based cybersecurity company that just helped identify two Chinese state hackers involved in the massive Salt Typhoon breach.

"This is the same playbook that put CrowdStrike on the map," Citron noted, citing a Wired Magazine story covering the incident. And yet, the market is valuing SentinelOne "like it's going out of business" at just 5.21 times sales.

Here's the thing: Citron believes Wall Street is making its classic mistake with software transformations. The company has shifted from being an "endpoint vendor" to a fully native AI security platform, and the market hasn't caught up. More than 50% of SentinelOne's bookings last quarter came from cloud, data, and AI clients. That's not a dying business.

Citron disclosed a long position in the stock and set a price target of $32, which represents 113% upside from current levels. "The company must be rerated," the firm stated, also calling it "an obvious strategic target" for mergers and acquisitions by larger players.

Purple AI: The Competitive Moat

Citron's most compelling argument centers on SentinelOne's generative AI product, Purple AI, which the firm called the company's "clearest competitive moat." Unlike competitors who bolted AI features onto existing platforms, SentinelOne built Purple AI natively from the ground up.

The numbers back up the hype. Third-party research cited in Citron's report showed a 338% three-year ROI, 55% faster threat remediation, and a 60% reduction in the likelihood of major security events. Those aren't marginal improvements—they're the kind of metrics that can reshape buying decisions in enterprise security.

Strong Earnings, Weak Reaction

SentinelOne reported third-quarter results last week that beat on both lines. Revenue came in at $258.91 million, up 23% year-over-year and ahead of the $257.7 million consensus estimate. Adjusted earnings hit $0.07 per share, topping the $0.05 analyst estimate.

So why did the stock pull back? The fourth-quarter revenue outlook of $271 million came in $2 million below analyst expectations. Citron dismissed this reaction entirely: "The market sold off a $5 billion company over a rounding error."

It's a fair point. The guidance miss was roughly 0.7% below estimates, hardly a signal that the business is broken. But markets can be unforgiving when they're already skeptical.

What The Market Is Missing

Citron's thesis rests on the idea that investors are applying old metrics to a company in transition. Traditional endpoint security vendors trade at lower multiples because they face commoditization pressure. But if SentinelOne is successfully pivoting to become a comprehensive AI-powered security platform—one that's gaining traction with enterprise customers—then the valuation framework should shift.

Shares of SentinelOne closed Thursday down 1.64% at $14.99, though they gained 0.60% in overnight trading. The stock has struggled with momentum recently, showing unfavorable price trends across short, medium, and long-term periods according to market data.

Whether Citron is right about the rerating depends on whether SentinelOne can sustain its growth trajectory and prove that its AI platform is more than just a buzzword. But at 5.21 times sales for a company growing revenue at 23% with improving profitability metrics, the valuation certainly looks interesting—especially if the business transformation story holds up.