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Why ON Semiconductor Might Be More Interesting Than Wall Street Thinks

MarketDash Editorial Team
1 day ago
ON Semiconductor has quietly positioned itself at the intersection of electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, and U.S. manufacturing policy. With a clean balance sheet, aggressive buybacks, and a valuation that looks more cyclical commodity than strategic power player, the company's setup deserves a closer look.

A Misunderstood Power Play

ON Semiconductor (ON) isn't the sexiest name in semiconductors, but that might be exactly why it's interesting. The company has systematically transformed itself into a focused power and sensing business built around silicon carbide, high-voltage power devices, and industrial-grade reliability. This isn't about chasing the latest trends—it's about owning critical positions in EV powertrains, industrial automation, energy infrastructure, and datacenter power. These are markets where efficiency and durability actually matter, not just who can ship the most units.

Compared to the semiconductor universe, ON occupies an interesting middle ground. It sits between global giants like STMicroelectronics and Infineon on one side, and more fragile pure-plays like Wolfspeed on the other. What makes ON different is the combination: U.S.-based manufacturing, vertical integration in silicon carbide, and the kind of long automotive qualification cycles that create genuine barriers to entry. That's a durability profile few competitors can match.

The Onshoring Advantage

Here's where things get strategic. ON's U.S.-based manufacturing footprint isn't just a nice-to-have anymore—it's becoming a legitimate competitive advantage. As governments and automakers prioritize supply chain security, domestic silicon carbide production lines up perfectly with EV policy objectives, grid modernization efforts, defense procurement requirements, and CHIPS Act incentives.

For customers, onshoring means reduced geopolitical risk and better long-term supply assurance. For ON, it translates into stronger pricing power, deeper OEM relationships, and preferred supplier status as electrification and AI infrastructure continue scaling. When your manufacturing is already where your customers need it to be, you're not scrambling to explain your China exposure or navigating export controls.

The Valuation Math Gets Interesting

Now let's talk numbers, because this is where the disconnect becomes obvious. ON Semiconductor (ON) carries a roughly $22.5B market cap. Management is guiding toward $6.3B in revenue for 2026 and $7B in 2027. The balance sheet shows $2.9B in cash against just $800M in debt. And here's the kicker: the company has authorized $6B for share buybacks.

Do the math on that capital return program, and ON's effective enterprise value trends toward roughly $13B by the end of 2027. That puts the stock at approximately 2x 2027 price-to-sales after buybacks—a valuation multiple you'd typically see on low-growth cyclical businesses, not strategic power leaders positioned at the center of multiple secular trends.

The forward P/E sits around 20x today, dropping to roughly 13x by 2027 if the company executes on its plan. That creates a setup where simply hitting guidance could drive meaningful multiple expansion, especially if the market starts pricing ON as a strategic supplier rather than just another semiconductor name.

Sometimes the most interesting opportunities aren't the ones everyone's talking about. They're the ones quietly building durable positions while trading at valuations that don't reflect the strategic value they've created.

Back to News

Why ON Semiconductor Might Be More Interesting Than Wall Street Thinks

MarketDash Editorial Team
1 day ago
ON Semiconductor has quietly positioned itself at the intersection of electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, and U.S. manufacturing policy. With a clean balance sheet, aggressive buybacks, and a valuation that looks more cyclical commodity than strategic power player, the company's setup deserves a closer look.

A Misunderstood Power Play

ON Semiconductor (ON) isn't the sexiest name in semiconductors, but that might be exactly why it's interesting. The company has systematically transformed itself into a focused power and sensing business built around silicon carbide, high-voltage power devices, and industrial-grade reliability. This isn't about chasing the latest trends—it's about owning critical positions in EV powertrains, industrial automation, energy infrastructure, and datacenter power. These are markets where efficiency and durability actually matter, not just who can ship the most units.

Compared to the semiconductor universe, ON occupies an interesting middle ground. It sits between global giants like STMicroelectronics and Infineon on one side, and more fragile pure-plays like Wolfspeed on the other. What makes ON different is the combination: U.S.-based manufacturing, vertical integration in silicon carbide, and the kind of long automotive qualification cycles that create genuine barriers to entry. That's a durability profile few competitors can match.

The Onshoring Advantage

Here's where things get strategic. ON's U.S.-based manufacturing footprint isn't just a nice-to-have anymore—it's becoming a legitimate competitive advantage. As governments and automakers prioritize supply chain security, domestic silicon carbide production lines up perfectly with EV policy objectives, grid modernization efforts, defense procurement requirements, and CHIPS Act incentives.

For customers, onshoring means reduced geopolitical risk and better long-term supply assurance. For ON, it translates into stronger pricing power, deeper OEM relationships, and preferred supplier status as electrification and AI infrastructure continue scaling. When your manufacturing is already where your customers need it to be, you're not scrambling to explain your China exposure or navigating export controls.

The Valuation Math Gets Interesting

Now let's talk numbers, because this is where the disconnect becomes obvious. ON Semiconductor (ON) carries a roughly $22.5B market cap. Management is guiding toward $6.3B in revenue for 2026 and $7B in 2027. The balance sheet shows $2.9B in cash against just $800M in debt. And here's the kicker: the company has authorized $6B for share buybacks.

Do the math on that capital return program, and ON's effective enterprise value trends toward roughly $13B by the end of 2027. That puts the stock at approximately 2x 2027 price-to-sales after buybacks—a valuation multiple you'd typically see on low-growth cyclical businesses, not strategic power leaders positioned at the center of multiple secular trends.

The forward P/E sits around 20x today, dropping to roughly 13x by 2027 if the company executes on its plan. That creates a setup where simply hitting guidance could drive meaningful multiple expansion, especially if the market starts pricing ON as a strategic supplier rather than just another semiconductor name.

Sometimes the most interesting opportunities aren't the ones everyone's talking about. They're the ones quietly building durable positions while trading at valuations that don't reflect the strategic value they've created.