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The Magnificent Seven Will Still Dominate 2026—But This Time They'll Have Company

MarketDash Editorial Team
1 day ago
Goldman Sachs sees mega-cap tech giants still driving nearly half of S&P 500 earnings growth next year, but the rest of the market is finally catching up. For investors, that means the opportunity set is expanding beyond a small handful of stocks.

Here's the thing about the last three years in U.S. stocks: it's basically been a one-team sport.

The Magnificent Seven—that exclusive club of mega-cap tech companies—have dominated everything. Returns, headlines, earnings growth, investor obsession. The narrative became pretty simple: without these giants, the whole rally would crumble.

And the numbers back up the hype. Since launching in October 2023, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) has rocketed 119% higher. Compare that to the Invesco Equal Weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP), which has delivered about a third of that return. That gap tells you everything about how far the very top of the market has pulled away from the median stock.

But Goldman Sachs just published a report that hints at something interesting: the mega-caps still matter enormously, but 2026 might not be their solo performance anymore.

The Magnificent Seven Are Still Magnificent—Just Less Lonely

Goldman is forecasting S&P 500 earnings per share of $305 in 2026, which translates to 12% year-over-year growth. Another 10% increase is expected in 2027. Pretty solid outlook overall.

Now here's the kicker: of that 12% growth projected for next year, Goldman estimates that the seven largest stocks will account for 46% of total S&P 500 earnings growth. We're talking about NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Apple Inc. (AAPL), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) (GOOGL), Amazon Inc. (AMZN), Meta Platforms Inc. (META), and Tesla, Inc. (TSLA).

That's an absurd concentration when you think about it. Just 1% of index constituents, representing roughly 36% of market capitalization, are expected to deliver nearly half of all earnings growth.

But—and this is the interesting part—that 46% figure actually represents a modest decline from 2025, when the same group contributed roughly 50% of earnings growth. The dominance is still there, it's just slightly less extreme.

"The sustainability of exceptional margins for the largest U.S. stocks has been a long-running topic of investor debate, and recent focus on AI competition among the largest firms suggests that will remain a key debate in 2026," Goldman analyst Ben Snider said.

The Other 493 Stocks Are Finally Waking Up

Here's where things get more optimistic for broader market bulls. Goldman sees earnings growth for the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 accelerating from 7% in 2025 to 9% in 2026.

In absolute terms, that S&P 493 group is expected to contribute more than half of total index earnings growth next year. That's a meaningful shift in market composition.

Earnings growth in 2025 was already broader than many investors realized, with the median S&P 500 company posting high-single-digit to low-double-digit gains. In 2026, Goldman expects that breadth to improve further as macroeconomic conditions become more supportive.

Economic growth remains the most powerful variable in Goldman's top-down earnings model, explaining more than half of historical S&P 500 EPS variation. As growth firms up, cyclically sensitive sectors like Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary should see faster earnings growth.

At the same time, labor market slack and productivity gains should support profit margins—though Goldman is notably more cautious than the bottom-up consensus on how fast margins will expand outside the largest firms.

AI Is Still Important, But It's Not the Whole Story

Artificial intelligence will remain an important tailwind in 2026, but it won't be the only force shaping markets. According to Goldman, roughly 30% to 40% of large firms are already using AI in some capacity, but very few have seen a meaningful impact on earnings so far.

Adoption is still early, uneven, and skewed toward companies with the capital, data, and scale to deploy AI effectively. Smaller companies are lagging behind.

"The process of AI adoption remains early, but large companies report more progress so far than smaller firms," Snider said.

Over time, AI has the potential to materially lift aggregate earnings power across the economy. But in 2026, Goldman views it as a gradual contributor rather than the dominant engine of growth. It's part of the story, not the entire plot.

What Investors Should Take Away

The headline from Goldman's analysis isn't that the Magnificent Seven are losing relevance or fading into the background. They're not.

It's that their dominance is becoming less exclusive. They're still expected to lead the market in 2026, but they may no longer be carrying it entirely on their own shoulders.

As earnings growth broadens and cyclical sectors regain momentum, the opportunity set expands beyond a small handful of stocks. For investors who've felt locked out of the rally or uncomfortable with concentration risk, that's a pretty meaningful development.

The market might finally be turning into a team sport again.

Back to News

The Magnificent Seven Will Still Dominate 2026—But This Time They'll Have Company

MarketDash Editorial Team
1 day ago
Goldman Sachs sees mega-cap tech giants still driving nearly half of S&P 500 earnings growth next year, but the rest of the market is finally catching up. For investors, that means the opportunity set is expanding beyond a small handful of stocks.

Here's the thing about the last three years in U.S. stocks: it's basically been a one-team sport.

The Magnificent Seven—that exclusive club of mega-cap tech companies—have dominated everything. Returns, headlines, earnings growth, investor obsession. The narrative became pretty simple: without these giants, the whole rally would crumble.

And the numbers back up the hype. Since launching in October 2023, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) has rocketed 119% higher. Compare that to the Invesco Equal Weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP), which has delivered about a third of that return. That gap tells you everything about how far the very top of the market has pulled away from the median stock.

But Goldman Sachs just published a report that hints at something interesting: the mega-caps still matter enormously, but 2026 might not be their solo performance anymore.

The Magnificent Seven Are Still Magnificent—Just Less Lonely

Goldman is forecasting S&P 500 earnings per share of $305 in 2026, which translates to 12% year-over-year growth. Another 10% increase is expected in 2027. Pretty solid outlook overall.

Now here's the kicker: of that 12% growth projected for next year, Goldman estimates that the seven largest stocks will account for 46% of total S&P 500 earnings growth. We're talking about NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Apple Inc. (AAPL), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) (GOOGL), Amazon Inc. (AMZN), Meta Platforms Inc. (META), and Tesla, Inc. (TSLA).

That's an absurd concentration when you think about it. Just 1% of index constituents, representing roughly 36% of market capitalization, are expected to deliver nearly half of all earnings growth.

But—and this is the interesting part—that 46% figure actually represents a modest decline from 2025, when the same group contributed roughly 50% of earnings growth. The dominance is still there, it's just slightly less extreme.

"The sustainability of exceptional margins for the largest U.S. stocks has been a long-running topic of investor debate, and recent focus on AI competition among the largest firms suggests that will remain a key debate in 2026," Goldman analyst Ben Snider said.

The Other 493 Stocks Are Finally Waking Up

Here's where things get more optimistic for broader market bulls. Goldman sees earnings growth for the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 accelerating from 7% in 2025 to 9% in 2026.

In absolute terms, that S&P 493 group is expected to contribute more than half of total index earnings growth next year. That's a meaningful shift in market composition.

Earnings growth in 2025 was already broader than many investors realized, with the median S&P 500 company posting high-single-digit to low-double-digit gains. In 2026, Goldman expects that breadth to improve further as macroeconomic conditions become more supportive.

Economic growth remains the most powerful variable in Goldman's top-down earnings model, explaining more than half of historical S&P 500 EPS variation. As growth firms up, cyclically sensitive sectors like Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary should see faster earnings growth.

At the same time, labor market slack and productivity gains should support profit margins—though Goldman is notably more cautious than the bottom-up consensus on how fast margins will expand outside the largest firms.

AI Is Still Important, But It's Not the Whole Story

Artificial intelligence will remain an important tailwind in 2026, but it won't be the only force shaping markets. According to Goldman, roughly 30% to 40% of large firms are already using AI in some capacity, but very few have seen a meaningful impact on earnings so far.

Adoption is still early, uneven, and skewed toward companies with the capital, data, and scale to deploy AI effectively. Smaller companies are lagging behind.

"The process of AI adoption remains early, but large companies report more progress so far than smaller firms," Snider said.

Over time, AI has the potential to materially lift aggregate earnings power across the economy. But in 2026, Goldman views it as a gradual contributor rather than the dominant engine of growth. It's part of the story, not the entire plot.

What Investors Should Take Away

The headline from Goldman's analysis isn't that the Magnificent Seven are losing relevance or fading into the background. They're not.

It's that their dominance is becoming less exclusive. They're still expected to lead the market in 2026, but they may no longer be carrying it entirely on their own shoulders.

As earnings growth broadens and cyclical sectors regain momentum, the opportunity set expands beyond a small handful of stocks. For investors who've felt locked out of the rally or uncomfortable with concentration risk, that's a pretty meaningful development.

The market might finally be turning into a team sport again.