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Lululemon Rallies on Q3 Beat Despite Slowing US Momentum

MarketDash Editorial Team
1 day ago
Lululemon Athletica shares jumped over 10% Friday after beating third-quarter estimates, though analysts noted cooling US trends. China sales surged 47% while management acknowledged domestic softness persists heading into next year.

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) shares rallied Friday after the athletic apparel maker delivered better-than-expected third-quarter results Thursday evening. The stock jumped 10.25% to $206.17, though analysts painted a nuanced picture of what's actually happening beneath the surface.

Here's the thing: Lululemon beat estimates handily, posting earnings of $2.59 per share against consensus expectations of $2.21. Total sales climbed 7.1% to $2.566 billion, comfortably ahead of the $2.479 billion analysts were expecting. But the story gets more interesting when you break down the geography.

The China Surprise

The real standout was China, where revenues grew 47% in constant currency terms. That's a massive acceleration from the 24% growth the company posted in the second quarter. BTIG analyst Janine Stichter, who maintained her Buy rating and $303 price target, noted that management acknowledged some benefit from timing shifts in the region. Still, 47% growth is nothing to sneeze at.

The US Reality Check

Meanwhile, back home in the Americas, things look considerably less exciting. Revenues actually decelerated from the already-modest 1% growth recorded in the second quarter. The company saw improved trends over Black Friday, which helped clear excess inventory, but momentum faded pretty quickly after the holiday weekend.

BofA Securities analyst Lorraine Hutchinson raised her price target from $185 to $220 while maintaining a Neutral rating. She pointed out that while the earnings beat looks impressive, the company's 2025 estimates remain essentially unchanged. Why? Because the beat is being offset by higher spending in the fourth quarter aimed at driving traffic. "Sales have slowed since, causing a slightly lower 4Q revenue plan, incremental markdowns and higher SG&A to drive traffic," Hutchinson wrote.

Guidance Goes Up, Sort Of

Management did raise their full-year outlook, projecting sales of $10.962 billion to $11.047 billion, up from the prior range of $10.850 billion to $11 billion. Earnings guidance also ticked higher to $12.92-$13.02 per share from $12.77-$12.97 per share. But Telsey Advisory Group analyst Dana Telsey, who raised her price target from $200 to $215 while keeping a Market Perform rating, noted that expectations had already been revised significantly lower after disappointing guidance in early September.

Telsey also highlighted the elephant in the room: "U.S. business also remains soft, with management looking to an inflection next year." Translation: don't expect the domestic turnaround to happen overnight.

Stichter from BTIG summed up the post-Black Friday reality: "While the company saw improved trends over Black Friday, they did see some moderation in the post-Black Friday period, which has been taken to account in the guide."

So yes, Lululemon beat expectations and the stock rallied. But the real question is whether surging China growth can offset persistent US weakness, and whether the company can reignite domestic momentum without burning through profits on markdowns and promotions. For now, Wall Street is cautiously optimistic, with price target raises across the board even as most analysts maintain neutral-to-moderate stances.

Back to News

Lululemon Rallies on Q3 Beat Despite Slowing US Momentum

MarketDash Editorial Team
1 day ago
Lululemon Athletica shares jumped over 10% Friday after beating third-quarter estimates, though analysts noted cooling US trends. China sales surged 47% while management acknowledged domestic softness persists heading into next year.

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) shares rallied Friday after the athletic apparel maker delivered better-than-expected third-quarter results Thursday evening. The stock jumped 10.25% to $206.17, though analysts painted a nuanced picture of what's actually happening beneath the surface.

Here's the thing: Lululemon beat estimates handily, posting earnings of $2.59 per share against consensus expectations of $2.21. Total sales climbed 7.1% to $2.566 billion, comfortably ahead of the $2.479 billion analysts were expecting. But the story gets more interesting when you break down the geography.

The China Surprise

The real standout was China, where revenues grew 47% in constant currency terms. That's a massive acceleration from the 24% growth the company posted in the second quarter. BTIG analyst Janine Stichter, who maintained her Buy rating and $303 price target, noted that management acknowledged some benefit from timing shifts in the region. Still, 47% growth is nothing to sneeze at.

The US Reality Check

Meanwhile, back home in the Americas, things look considerably less exciting. Revenues actually decelerated from the already-modest 1% growth recorded in the second quarter. The company saw improved trends over Black Friday, which helped clear excess inventory, but momentum faded pretty quickly after the holiday weekend.

BofA Securities analyst Lorraine Hutchinson raised her price target from $185 to $220 while maintaining a Neutral rating. She pointed out that while the earnings beat looks impressive, the company's 2025 estimates remain essentially unchanged. Why? Because the beat is being offset by higher spending in the fourth quarter aimed at driving traffic. "Sales have slowed since, causing a slightly lower 4Q revenue plan, incremental markdowns and higher SG&A to drive traffic," Hutchinson wrote.

Guidance Goes Up, Sort Of

Management did raise their full-year outlook, projecting sales of $10.962 billion to $11.047 billion, up from the prior range of $10.850 billion to $11 billion. Earnings guidance also ticked higher to $12.92-$13.02 per share from $12.77-$12.97 per share. But Telsey Advisory Group analyst Dana Telsey, who raised her price target from $200 to $215 while keeping a Market Perform rating, noted that expectations had already been revised significantly lower after disappointing guidance in early September.

Telsey also highlighted the elephant in the room: "U.S. business also remains soft, with management looking to an inflection next year." Translation: don't expect the domestic turnaround to happen overnight.

Stichter from BTIG summed up the post-Black Friday reality: "While the company saw improved trends over Black Friday, they did see some moderation in the post-Black Friday period, which has been taken to account in the guide."

So yes, Lululemon beat expectations and the stock rallied. But the real question is whether surging China growth can offset persistent US weakness, and whether the company can reignite domestic momentum without burning through profits on markdowns and promotions. For now, Wall Street is cautiously optimistic, with price target raises across the board even as most analysts maintain neutral-to-moderate stances.