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Tariff Collections Drop For First Time Since Trump's Trade War Started—What It Means For Debt Plans

MarketDash Editorial Team
14 hours ago
Trump's tariff revenue machine hit its first speed bump in November, declining for the first time since April as grocery duties got rolled back. Now the big question: What happens to those promised rebate checks and debt reduction plans?

Here's an interesting wrinkle in the Trump tariff story: For the first time since President Donald Trump fired up his import tax machine in April, the revenue actually went down. Treasury Department data released Wednesday shows the government collected $30.75 billion in customs duties in November, a drop from October's $31.35 billion haul.

The Peak And The Pullback

After Trump's "Liberation Day" taxes kicked in, tariff collections jumped to $15.6 billion in April and kept climbing every single month through October. It was a steady upward march until November broke the streak.

What changed? The administration started rolling back tariffs on grocery staples like bananas and coffee. Turns out, when you're dealing with a cost-of-living crisis that your own tariffs helped worsen, taxing breakfast foods becomes politically complicated.

Meanwhile, total government receipts hit $740.373 billion through the first two months of fiscal 2026, up considerably from $628.525 billion in the same period last year. Individual income taxes brought in $363.911 billion while corporate taxes added $22.237 billion, according to the Treasury's monthly statement.

The Big Plans For Tariff Money

Trump has been talking big about what he wants to do with all this tariff cash. He proposed using the revenue to take a bite out of the national debt, which topped $38 trillion in October. He also said tariff revenue would be substantial enough to both attack U.S. debt and fund $2,000 rebate checks to Americans.

There's also a $12 billion farm aid package for tariff-hit farmers that Trump announced, funded partly with tariff revenue. So that's debt reduction, rebate checks, and farm bailouts all competing for the same pot of money.

Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council and a top candidate for Federal Reserve chair, noted earlier this month that "a lot of the revenue coming into the Treasury" comes from tariffs, which could eventually help reduce U.S. debt. Trump doubled down during a December cabinet meeting, saying, "We're going to be giving back refunds out of the tariffs because we've taken in literally trillions of dollars, and we're going to be giving a nice dividend to the people, in addition to reducing debt."

Reality Check From The Budget Office

Here's where the math gets uncomfortable. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Trump's tariff reductions on groceries, China, and EU duties have eliminated roughly $800 billion in anticipated debt reduction over the next ten years. The agency later updated its projections after the estimated tariff rate dropped from 20.5% in August to 16.5%.

So the revenue is declining, the plans are ambitious, and the budget scorekeepers are marking down expectations by nearly a trillion dollars. Something's got to give.

Back to News

Tariff Collections Drop For First Time Since Trump's Trade War Started—What It Means For Debt Plans

MarketDash Editorial Team
14 hours ago
Trump's tariff revenue machine hit its first speed bump in November, declining for the first time since April as grocery duties got rolled back. Now the big question: What happens to those promised rebate checks and debt reduction plans?

Here's an interesting wrinkle in the Trump tariff story: For the first time since President Donald Trump fired up his import tax machine in April, the revenue actually went down. Treasury Department data released Wednesday shows the government collected $30.75 billion in customs duties in November, a drop from October's $31.35 billion haul.

The Peak And The Pullback

After Trump's "Liberation Day" taxes kicked in, tariff collections jumped to $15.6 billion in April and kept climbing every single month through October. It was a steady upward march until November broke the streak.

What changed? The administration started rolling back tariffs on grocery staples like bananas and coffee. Turns out, when you're dealing with a cost-of-living crisis that your own tariffs helped worsen, taxing breakfast foods becomes politically complicated.

Meanwhile, total government receipts hit $740.373 billion through the first two months of fiscal 2026, up considerably from $628.525 billion in the same period last year. Individual income taxes brought in $363.911 billion while corporate taxes added $22.237 billion, according to the Treasury's monthly statement.

The Big Plans For Tariff Money

Trump has been talking big about what he wants to do with all this tariff cash. He proposed using the revenue to take a bite out of the national debt, which topped $38 trillion in October. He also said tariff revenue would be substantial enough to both attack U.S. debt and fund $2,000 rebate checks to Americans.

There's also a $12 billion farm aid package for tariff-hit farmers that Trump announced, funded partly with tariff revenue. So that's debt reduction, rebate checks, and farm bailouts all competing for the same pot of money.

Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council and a top candidate for Federal Reserve chair, noted earlier this month that "a lot of the revenue coming into the Treasury" comes from tariffs, which could eventually help reduce U.S. debt. Trump doubled down during a December cabinet meeting, saying, "We're going to be giving back refunds out of the tariffs because we've taken in literally trillions of dollars, and we're going to be giving a nice dividend to the people, in addition to reducing debt."

Reality Check From The Budget Office

Here's where the math gets uncomfortable. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Trump's tariff reductions on groceries, China, and EU duties have eliminated roughly $800 billion in anticipated debt reduction over the next ten years. The agency later updated its projections after the estimated tariff rate dropped from 20.5% in August to 16.5%.

So the revenue is declining, the plans are ambitious, and the budget scorekeepers are marking down expectations by nearly a trillion dollars. Something's got to give.