Here's a fun weekend thought experiment: What happens if someone builds a quantum computer powerful enough to crack Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoin wallet? Does the market implode, or do the diamond-handed veterans just back up the truck?
Cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo is betting on the latter. Responding to concerns raised by English YouTuber Josh Otten on Sunday, Woo predicted that early Bitcoin (BTC) investors would view any quantum-induced crash as a buying opportunity rather than an existential crisis.
The Quantum Threat Scenario
Otten's post outlined a nightmare scenario where a functional quantum computer deploys Shor's algorithm to break the encryption protecting Bitcoin's oldest wallets. Shor's algorithm is a quantum computing method widely believed capable of cracking Elliptic Curve Cryptography, the security system protecting Bitcoin wallets.
The big prize? Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet, which holds an estimated 1.096 million BTC according to on-chain analytics firm Arkham. At current prices, that's roughly $98.25 billion sitting there. Otten warned that exposing these private keys "would likely crash the market and destroy trust in the whole system."
A More Optimistic Take
Woo sees things differently. "Many OGs would be in to buy the flash crash. BTC network would survive, most coins are not immediately vulnerable," he countered.
That said, Woo acknowledged the scope of the vulnerability. Around 4 million coins sitting in Pay-to-Public-Key addresses, including Satoshi's holdings, have their public keys exposed and could theoretically be accessed by sufficiently powerful quantum computers.
How Real Is The Threat?
The quantum computing threat to Bitcoin has become a popular debate topic in crypto circles. Jameson Lopp, co-founder and chief security officer at self-custody platform Casa, previously told MarketDash that approximately 4 million BTC—nearly 25% of the total supply—have already had their public addresses exposed.
But here's the thing: Lopp estimates a "greater than 50% chance" that it will take at least another decade before quantum computers become powerful enough to actually decode a Bitcoin public key and find its corresponding private key.
Google's launch of its next-generation quantum chip "Willow" last year did reignite concerns about Bitcoin's cryptography due to the chip's rapid computation capabilities. But we're apparently still a long way from cracking Bitcoin's security.
Price Action: At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $89,613.80, down 0.68% over the last 24 hours.