A Bold Forecast for Tesla's Future
Dan Ives, managing director of equity research at Wedbush Securities, doesn't do subtle. In a post on X this week, he laid out an ambitious vision for Tesla Inc. (TSLA): a $2 trillion market cap by the end of 2026. That's not all. In his bull case scenario, Ives sees the company potentially hitting $3 trillion as what he calls Tesla's "AI chapter takes hold."
The key to this growth? It's not just about selling more electric cars. Ives pointed to the autonomous driving and robotics chapter as the real game-changer for Tesla's trajectory. He's calling it a "monster year" ahead for the company, betting that the shift from pure EV manufacturer to AI and robotics powerhouse will fundamentally reshape how investors value the business.
Driverless Testing Moves Forward
Timing is everything, and Ives' prediction comes as Tesla accelerates its push into autonomous technology. Last week, a driverless Tesla Model Y was spotted navigating the streets of Austin, Texas, with nobody behind the wheel. CEO Elon Musk responded to the sighting by confirming that "testing is underway with no occupants in the car," reinforcing the company's timeline for launching Robotaxi services.
This aligns with Musk's broader vision. He's previously stated that scaling Full Self-Driving technology and the Optimus humanoid robot are central to Tesla's Master Plan IV. In fact, Musk has suggested that Optimus alone could eventually represent about 80% of the company's total value. That's a remarkable claim that positions Tesla less as a car company and more as an AI and robotics platform with wheels.
The Valuation Debate Continues
Not everyone is buying the hype. In December, a Morgan Stanley analyst downgraded Tesla stock despite acknowledging the company's dominance in the electric vehicle sector. The concern? Valuation. The analyst argued that current metrics no longer justify a buy rating and expects Tesla to face ongoing challenges in EV sales through 2026.
This skepticism echoes the views of valuation expert Aswath Damodaran, who has criticized what he sees as irrational valuations among top tech giants, Tesla included. The tension is clear: believers see an AI and robotics revolution about to unfold, while skeptics see an expensive stock trading on future promises rather than present fundamentals.
Where Tesla Stands Today
MarketDash data shows Tesla in the 67th percentile for quality and the 53rd percentile for growth, reflecting average performance in both categories. As of Friday's close, Tesla stock stood at $458.96, up 2.71% for the day. Year-to-date, shares have climbed 21.01%.
The question facing investors is whether Tesla's next chapter will be defined by autonomous vehicles and robots, or whether today's valuation has already priced in too much optimism. Ives is clearly in the believer camp, but with a $2 trillion to $3 trillion market cap prediction, there's not much room for disappointment.