Bitcoin (BTC) was supposed to have an epic fourth quarter. The narrative was simple: Trump wins, crypto-friendly policy follows, and Bitcoin rockets to $150,000. Except that's not what happened. Instead, Bitcoin spent the end of 2024 digesting its post-election gains, showing more correction than continuation.

The Rally That Hit a Wall

Don't get me wrong—the initial move was impressive. Bitcoin surged 80% following the 2024 presidential election, pushing aggressively into the $120,000 to $125,000 range. But here's the thing about supply zones: they exist for a reason. That region had been a long-standing resistance band, and Bitcoin never managed to build any meaningful support there. Once the momentum faded, the selloff came quickly, breaking through several short-term support levels in succession.

The Chart Tells a Corrective Story

If you look at the daily timeframe, the picture becomes clearer. Bitcoin remains capped beneath a falling trendline that's been guiding price lower since the October peak. Every rebound attempt into that trendline has been rejected. Until Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above that structure, the broader market posture stays corrective. The chart simply doesn't support a sustained bullish continuation right now.

Making matters more complicated, Bitcoin continues to trade below major exponential moving averages clustered between $95,000 and $103,000. Those levels now represent active supply zones. When Bitcoin rallies into this range, it gets met with selling. Traders are using strength to reduce exposure rather than chase upside, which tells you a lot about sentiment.

Stuck in the Middle

Support has formed near $85,000, where buyers stepped in following the November flush. While that level has held, Bitcoin hasn't been able to generate much follow-through. Price remains trapped in a broad consolidation range between roughly $88,000 and $94,000. On shorter timeframes like the one-hour chart, you can see repeated failures near the upper boundary and steady bids near the lower end. Translation: heavy consolidation, not breakout preparation.

The Flow Problem

Here's where things get interesting. Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has recorded approximately $2.39 billion in net spot outflows. Even during recent rebound sessions, capital has continued to exit exchanges. This dynamic typically limits upside momentum, and it explains why the market feels so heavy right now.

There are buyers present—enough to prevent a breakdown below support—but sellers keep capping rallies. It's a standoff, and the flows suggest the sellers have more ammunition.

What Would Change the Outlook

For Bitcoin to credibly reopen the path toward higher targets like $150,000, several things need to happen. First, price needs to reclaim and hold above $94,000. Second, the falling daily trendline must be broken decisively, not just touched and rejected. Third, spot flows must shift from persistent outflows to sustained inflows.

Until those signals appear, upside projections toward $150,000 remain premature. The post-election rally was real, but so is the correction that followed. Right now, Bitcoin is in absorption mode, not expansion mode. The question isn't whether it can get back to the highs—it probably will eventually. The question is when, and what catalyst will be strong enough to shift the current balance between buyers and sellers.

For now, patience seems to be the most rational trade.